Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s slide finally produced a fresh low close that fulfills the unfinished business of the recent confirmed breakout. Monday mornings tend to duplicate Fridays in currencies, so lower lows are likely. Closing under 1.1170 would signal a much deeper decline underway.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sliding through the 1248.00 sell signal Friday morning probed under 1230.00, presumably on the way to fulfilling the 1222.00 objective below. It remains in-play so long as 1234.50 is not recovered.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Choppy ranging Friday consolidated Thursday’s steep intraday reversal back to Tuesday’s 16.88 lows, while ignoring Gold’s plunge, presumably preparing to resume its rally targeting 18.80.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat narrow ranging Friday avoided producing the eventual third lower close that has become required by Wednesday’s confirmed breakout. Bounces should meanwhile hold any test of 163-12.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s high had probed recent highs, and closed slightly higher. Probing Wednesday’s high Friday without closing above it suggests that topping has begun — but not yet sealed. Waning upside momentum was indicated separately by Friday’s session “ineffectual optimism” that gapped up and spent the entire session in positive territory without maintaining the probe above Wednesday’s prior high. Closing above 43.55 keeps alive potential for resolving up, and under 43.10 would start to siganla break lower is underway.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s relatively muted reaction to the day’s EIA report was resolved up to fresh highs Friday, targeting 2.20-2.25.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Thursday peaked upon filling the gap back to the high’s last close at 1.1415. This was above Wednesday’s high that had held a test of “higher prior lows,” and closing any higher would have put into play new highs. But Mario Draghi had the mic. And without much further delay, the gap up was retraced into negative territory under 1.1310. No buy signal would be credible before probing fresh lows.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up sharply to fresh highs was soon reversed even more sharply to probe back under Wednesday’s lows. Closing under 1248.00 would trigger a downleg targeting 1222.00 that could launch the pattern’s most substantial rally, yet.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap up to much higher fresh highs was nevertheless reversed back down sharply into negative territory. This doesn’t affect the confirmed breakout that still requires at least one eventual higher close.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Failing to hold the 164-12 pullback limit’s retest Wednesday broke sharply lower, and extended even deeper Thursday morning. The second consecutive lower close now requires an eventual third lower close. Bounces should meanwhile hold 163-12 if tested.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Closing Wednesday above last week’s highs could be confirmed by Thursday closing higher, but trending back down under prior highs misses that opportunity. Almost any initial weakness Friday would be credible for extending down intraday.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was greeted from a position of strength, being a pullback in an uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. But that didn’t ensure any meaningful reaction, as the session ranged only narrowly.