Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Only attacking the gap back to 1.1415 before resuming the decline isn’t necessarily premature. But Wednesday’s drop must still be confirmed before relying it to extend. And resuming the corrective bounce first would more likely probe prior highs to compensate for the delay.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday night’s high filled the gap back to 1259.00 before Wednesday’s open dipped back into Tuesday’s intraday range. The decline didn’t yet resume, but it may have been supported only by Silver’s simultaneous strength.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher overnight produced a gap up Wednesday that was maintained to confirm Tuesday’s breakout above 16.85. Pullbacks have room down to 16.70 while maintaining the next higher target at 18.80.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially rallying Wednesday was blind-sided by a broader market recovery. The 164-12/164-20 pullback limit that could barely be tested last week, has now been probed twice this week, this time targeting 164-06. But a close above 165-06 is still needed to signal the pullback has ended and the trend has reversed up.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Wednesday had reacted up to fill the gap back to Tuesday’s close, when OPEC rumors triggered a surge that extended through the afternoon, and through prior highs. None of which changes Friday’s confirmed breakout that requires at least one more lower close.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s probe of Tuesday’s 2.10 high by 3 cents was reversed back under Tuesday’s high. Closing under 2.05 would signal a deeper corrective dip underway. Otherwise, the rally’s momentum remains intact and targeting 2.20-2.25 .

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday back above the original 1.1345 sell signal extended intraday back into the high’s consolidation range. Filling the gap back up to 1.1375 could suffice for ending the bounce, or else a probe of fresh highs would become likely before tending to the outstanding “unfinished business below.”

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up to and through 1248.00 extended higher intraday to attack the outstanding gap at 1259.00. The rally’s origin was too optimistic to launch a credible rally, which is vulnerable to reacting down after filling the gap, or earlier back under 1248.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up above the 16.85 target probed it up to 17.10 intraday. Back under 16.70 would signal the target was holding, enabling a reversal down. Otherwise, a second consecutive higher close is needed to confirm a breakout.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The pullback’s 164-12/164-20 pullback target was tested fully but for 1 tick before bouncing back to 165-12. Closing above 165-20 would signal that the consolidation was ending, still needing to close above 166-16.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh highs extended intraday, filling the gap back to last Thursday’s last close within the high’s consolidation range. This is natural resistance, and Monday’s lower close did confirm Friday’s breakout, so no further backing-and-filling is needed before resuming the decline.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up above 1.95 Tuesday extended sharply higher intraday to probe prior highs and to retest the 2.08 target. This fulfills the “unfinished business above” of a third higher close after last week’s confirmed breakout. Extending the rally would next target 2.20-2.25.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Despite last week’s confirmed break of the 1.1345 sell signal requiring an eventual third lower close, Monday firmed back up to the sell signal. Still, nothing prevents probing higher in the interim, or requires immediately fulfilling the objective.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s overly-optimistic gap up from only attacking 1224.00 to 1234.50 had reacted down, and the overly optimistic reaction down had recovered to fresh highs that ended back at 1234.50. Similarly, gapping up Monday to test 1241.00 resistance also reacted down to 1234.50. A test of 1224.00 remains in-play, and likely to be probed by several dollars.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s firm morning held the 15.25 pullback limit that keeps in-play the higher objective up to 15.85.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Pulling back from Friday’s test of 166-16 resistance down to 165-20 could have launched a new upleg Monday, but probing it under 165-12 essentially targets a more thorough test the 164-12/164-20 pullback limit that had been tested to within 1 tick last week.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down sharply Sunday night and extending down to 37.60 didn’t prevent recovering to 38.50 by Monday’s open, and or entirely back to Friday’s 40.40 close that had triggered the 40.80 sell signal. A second consecutive lower close could still confirm the breakout, but more backing-and -filling wouldn’t negate the new attraction below at Monday’s gap down.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s firming didn’t recover 1.95 or recover from probing a fresh low, either of which would signal the pullback had ended.