Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having confirmed Wednesday’s breakout with a second consecutive lower close Thursday, Friday’s gap up created more distance to the eventual third lower close that is now required. But there is no reliable signal for assuring that won’t be interrupted by retesting recent highs first.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Friday from having stopped optimistically short of filling the 1224.50 gap is premature. Testing and retesting 1234.50 resistance keeps the downward momentum intact, and likely to fill the gap by at least $2.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s “ineffectual pessimism” wasn’t rejected by gapping up Friday, but probing a fresh high intraday now needs pullbacks to hold 16.25-16.30 to maintain the 16.85 target.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Friday to and through 165-20 extended intraday to test 166-16. Closing above it would confirm the pullback ended upon testing the 164-12/164-20 extended pullback target to within 1 tick Wednesday.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday night’s dip to the 40.90 sell signal had reacted up only to retrace the rally’s 42.00-42.35 objective. Gapping down to and through it Friday now requires confirmation of a second consecutive lower close. Bounces should meanwhile hold 41.20 as resistance.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down to last week’s 1.90 low closes doesn’t invalidate Tuesday’s confirmed breakout above 1.95, but momentum would reverse back down if confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Monday, instead of recovering 1.95.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending down Friday is confirming Thursday’s break under 1.1345. At least a third eventual lower close is required, probably at 1.1235-1.1255. Whether before or after fulfilling this objective, ranging at the highs should be retested.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s break under 1253.00 had filled the first gap outstanding back down to 1244.00, before extending down Thursday to within $1 of fulfilling the next lower gap back to 1224.50. Back above 1234.50 would signal that the drop would not extend to new lows.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s modest gap down didn’t extend as the session lows essentially remained within Wednesday’s range. A fresh high would resume the rally targeting 16.85.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The next lower pullback target at 164-12/164-20 was tested to within 1 tick Thursday morning, which would be close enough for a rally triggered above 165-20 to leave no unfinished business below.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday night’s dip under the 41.20 pullback limit touched the 40.90 sell signal before recovering ahead of Thursday’s open. Having tested support once, any lower before closing above 42.35 would be likely to collapse.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s open gapped down to test 1.99 support by 2-3 cents. That’s where last week’s failed confirmation had closed, so holding it is critical to quickly resuming this week’s breakout above 1.99 targeting 2.18.