Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The ongoing narrow trading range had tried breaking higher three times, and the first two times never reacted down under the range’s lows. The third breakout attempt also reacted back into the range, but then gapped down under it Wednesday to test the 1.1345 sell signal down to 1.1300. Confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Thursday would require an eventual third lower close. Otherwise, the breakout attempt will have held a test of support to make a rally leg even more likely, which would be signaled back above 1.1420.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
After only touching the 1253.00 pullback limit Tuesday, Wednesday’s open gapped under it and extended down enough to fill the first of two gaps below at 1244.00. The next lower gap at 1224.50 is in-play so long as 1253.00 isn’t recovered.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Diverging from Gold and breaking higher Wednesday could fulfill the minimum requirement for a third higher close after Monday’s confirmed breakout. But there is still potential for extending to 16.85.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing Tuesday under the 165-12 pullback limit that had held Monday has put into play a lower objective at 164-12/164-20, but Wednesday’s low came within only a quarter-point before bouncing back up to 166-00. Closing above 166-16 would signal that the corrective dip had ended.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already having met and held the 42.00-42.35 bounce target Tuesday, extending higher Wednesday was unlikely. Reaction to the morning’s EIA report left the upside target still attracting price to it, and now back under 41.20 would signal a downleg underway.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday above 1.95 and trending higher intraday, then surging into the close and firming further Wednesday, all matched last week’s temporary rally effort that was retraced back down under 2.00. Closing higher Wednesday instead confirms Tuesday’s rally and makes fresh highs likely.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
While Monday night’s fresh high proves that sellers aren’t exactly retaking control, not yet extending higher or reacting down sharply also reflects the current range’s attraction. Trending away from it the first time will likely retrace entirely.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing higher overnight was largely retraced into Tuesday’s open, which then extended down to the 1253.00 pullback limit. Bouncing from there stopped just short of a  second consecutive higher close, but the door open to retracing the recent breakout to 1244.00 and 1225.00. Extending higher anyway would target 1270.00 and potentially 1286.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher Tuesday instead of rejecting Monday’s close above 15.88 has confirmed a breakout, requiring at least one more higher close, and targeting 16.30 or 16.85.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s test of the 165-12 pullback limit was retested down to its 165-11 low Tuesday morning. And then lower, targeting 164-12/164-20 until recovering back above Monday afternoon’s 166-16 high.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s breakout and Monday’s confirmation weren’t optimal, but extended higher Tuesday anyway, filling the gap above at 42.00-42.35. It also fulfills the minimum third higher close of Friday’s confirmed breakout. The breakout and confirmation weren’t optimal, so the recovery remains vulnerable to reversing down quickly, and back under 41.90 would signal momentum reversing down.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday to and through 1.95 helped to offset Monday’s gap down, and to confirm the pullbacks have been from positions of strength. But a second consecutive higher close would be helpful confirmation to finally launching the next upleg.