Bigger Picture
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The delayed reaction to a top at 1.1435 has undermined the topping pattern, so Monday’s probe of fresh intraday highs has potential to extend into a new upleg. It stopped pessimistically short of touching last week’s overnight probe of fresh highs at 1.1475, so any higher would likely extend.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s reaction up from the 1234.50 long-entry had already fulfilled the 1255.00 minimum objective overnight, but extended intraday to also fulfill the 1260.00 upper-end of its potential. Closing back under 1253.00 would signal that momentum is reversing down to fill gaps back to 1244.00 and 1225.00 instead of extending higher to 1270.00 and potentially 1286.00.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s close above the 15.25 bounce limit was extended Sunday night and then higher throughout Monday morning to 15.99. Closing back under 15.88 would signal the bounce had peaked, and probably reversing down to resume the decline targeting 14.70.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Bouncing Sunday night to 166-25 didn’t prevent resuming the pullback targeting 165-12, which was then fulfilled Monday morning. Reacting up tested positive territory above at 166-15.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Ranging around the 39.55 buy signal Friday was not rejected, and extended slightly higher Sunday night to test 40.75 intraday. That officially confirms Friday’s signal, but not convincingly, especially since neither session trended post-open.
Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Despite the intraday uptrend Thursday after gapping up above 1.95 resistance, and then Friday’s gap up, Monday’s open gapped back down under 1.95. The gap back to Wednesday’s 1.90 close was filled.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Apr 12, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: None of Tuesday’s several econ reports have a track record for influencing price action. But the day is book-ended by two Fed speakers, one appearing at the unusual late-afternoon time — three, including the closing appearance — all coming one day after Monday’s expedited FOMC meeting.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*Patrick Harper Speaks
9:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Treasury Budget
2:00 PM ET
*John Williams Speaks
3:00 PM ET
Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
4:00 PM ET
The Universe, week of April 11, 2016…
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Perhaps we finally got news that can be considered a catalyst for the recent sector improvement. That’s the upcoming decision whether to re-schedule cannabis at a Federal level. Meanwhile, the sector didn’t extend that recent improvement.
Last week’s highlighted issues did alright anyway, with a double among them (CANN). I missed GRNH because of a questionable formation that has since resolved favorably. One other issue to highlight growing momentum this week is BLOZF. An honorable mention goes to INQD, which doesn’t have enough history for its current qualification to be reliable as it would if observed in any other issue.
Join us Wednesday evening at 7:00pm ET to review the sector and your own chart analysis requests. We’ll select several for inclusion in the model portfolio, which we’ll launch officially the next day. I’ll send a reminder…
| Marijuana Stock Universe for April 11, 2016 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 32 | 40.51% |
| trends* | # flat: | 28 | 35.44% |
| # down: | 19 | 24.05% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| AERO | 1.600 | 2.270 | up |
| AGTK | 0.002 | 0.005 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.085 | 0.160 | flat |
| ARNA | 1.800 | 2.200 | up |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | flat |
| BLOZF | 0.160 | 0.220 | up |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.030 | flat |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | up |
| BTFL | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| CANL | 0.053 | 0.290 | flat |
| CANN | 0.880 | 1.300 | up |
| CANV | 0.290 | 0.550 | up |
| CARA | 5.450 | 7.700 | flat |
| CBDS | 1.850 | 3.000 | up |
| CBIS | 0.017 | 0.024 | up |
| CGRW | 0.760 | 0.920 | up |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.317 | 0.590 | up |
| DEWM | 0.003 | 0.006 | up |
| DIGP | 0.215 | 0.290 | up |
| EAPH | 0.004 | 0.009 | up |
| EDXC | 0.025 | 0.042 | up |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | up |
| ENDO | 0.012 | 0.022 | up |
| ENRT | 0.005 | 0.014 | flat |
| ERBB | 0.001 | 0.003 | flat |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| FULL | 2.400 | 2.800 | up |
| GBLX | 0.175 | 0.280 | flat |
| GRNH | 0.045 | 0.069 | up |
| GWPH | 71.500 | 87.000 | up |
| HEMP | 0.036 | 0.070 | up |
| IMLFF | 0.040 | 0.115 | down |
| INQD | n/a | n/a | flat |
| INSY | 14.950 | 21.250 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | flat |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | down |
| LXRP | 0.100 | 0.220 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.029 | 0.052 | up |
| MDBX | 0.006 | 0.051 | down |
| MDRM | 0.040 | 0.108 | up |
| MINE | 0.019 | 0.040 | flat |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | flat |
| MJNA | 0.028 | 0.044 | flat |
| MNTR | 0.360 | 0.625 | up |
| MSRT | 0.830 | 1.410 | up |
| MYEC | 0.000 | 1.000 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | up |
| NMUS | 0.710 | 1.880 | down |
| NTRR | 1.120 | 1.800 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.435 | 0.630 | flat |
| OXIS | 0.200 | 1.640 | flat |
| PHOT | 0.020 | 0.040 | flat |
| PLPL | 0.063 | 0.108 | flat |
| PMCB | 0.043 | 0.074 | down |
| PNTV | 0.002 | 0.004 | up |
| PZOO | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RMHB | 0.028 | 0.051 | flat |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.006 | 0.014 | flat |
| SPRWF | 0.225 | 0.375 | up |
| SRNA | 0.074 | 0.112 | flat |
| STEV | 0.015 | 0.037 | down |
| TAUG | 0.004 | 0.008 | up |
| TRTC | 0.280 | 0.490 | up |
| TURV | 0.463 | 0.770 | flat |
| TWMJF | 1.800 | 2.400 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.010 | 0.050 | flat |
| VAPE | 0.003 | 0.023 | up |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.020 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | up |
| VPCO | 0.000 | 0.095 | down |
| WOGI | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 0.690 | 1.005 | down |
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
S&Ps start the new week at 6pm ET. Monitor trading overnight in the chaRTroom by CLICKING HERE.
I’ll be checking in later, and will annotate the chart if anything interesting develops.
Saturday Review’s recording (for 4/9/16) … Still waiting for one more shoe.
The ongoing trading range keeps alive potential for a deeper dip before resuming the rally. During this weekend’s Saturday Review, we discussed how to know determine whether that dip is underway, or being rejected, and the extent that each could reach.
Sponsorship for those competing paths will be well fed by a specially scheduled FOMC meeting and quarterly earnings. Knowing the context will help to make faster and more reasoned decisions in real-time.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
POT, CF, HOV, KO, MCD, HTM, CACC, FCX, X, HOG, SIVB, CRUS, FB, SBUX
04/09/2016 09:30:38 David B: Good Morning
04/09/2016 09:30:40 sm: audio good
04/09/2016 09:41:50 MK: 201/22 is prior lows?
04/09/2016 09:41:56 MK: 21/22 is prior lows no?
04/09/2016 09:55:17 MK: POT & CF
04/09/2016 09:55:25 MK: HTM
04/09/2016 09:55:35 MK: CACC
04/09/2016 09:55:37 MK: HOG
04/09/2016 09:55:40 MK: SIVB
04/09/2016 09:55:46 MK: CRUS
04/09/2016 09:55:49 MK: FB
04/09/2016 09:57:23 David B: any thoughts on the fed emergency meeting effecting stocks?
04/09/2016 09:59:14 David B: Are earnings already discounted in the market and earnings beats will reflect stocks to rally?
04/09/2016 10:07:49 MK: re:POT is that too far of a pullback
04/09/2016 10:07:56 MK: i’m long right around 16
04/09/2016 10:08:08 MK: with a close back under lows
04/09/2016 10:11:13 MK: yup
04/09/2016 10:11:14 MK: nevermind
04/09/2016 10:11:45 Josey: HOV
04/09/2016 10:14:22 Josey: long
04/09/2016 10:15:03 David B: KO,MCD
04/09/2016 10:18:30 MK: I feel ike KO is the ultimate CYA stock
04/09/2016 10:22:03 David B: FCX,X
04/09/2016 10:25:14 MK: can i press this?
04/09/2016 10:25:25 MK: ok
04/09/2016 10:25:28 MK: i’ll press on monday
04/09/2016 10:25:33 MK: i’m good with that
04/09/2016 10:26:53 MK: SBUX
04/09/2016 10:33:21 MK: sweeet
04/09/2016 10:33:23 MK: go lower
04/09/2016 10:34:30 MK: thats fine
04/09/2016 10:37:13 David B: with the fed,earnings,and options expiration it might be difficult to say which way the trend is going?
04/09/2016 10:44:25 David B: never know which the market will focus on?
04/09/2016 10:47:53 Josey: earning have been lowered so much that I would think we rally
04/09/2016 10:50:10 Josey: Thank you!
04/09/2016 10:50:19 David B: thanks