Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Is time up for a top? Despite still holding 1.1435 resistance all week, the 1.1345 sell signal has yet to break lower. Wednesday night’s brief probe above 1.1435 should have been rejected by now. Without already rallying Monday morning, the potential for reversing down will become much greater.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The 1234.50 pullback target was tested Thursday night by a blop-down that touched 1231.00. Although likely to resolve down, the corrective bounce targeting 1255.00 and possibly higher should now become obvious if valid.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still overlapping the 15.25 bounce limit keeps alive the potential for resolving the upward channel by breaking down to fresh lows at 14.70. But overlapping the bounce limit up to Thursday’s 15.36 high does threaten to violate it.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Friday to and through 166-19 from Thursday’s recovery high close now creates an attraction above that should enable recovering from a corrective dip down to 165-12/165-20.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Rallying sharply overnight from 38.25 through 39.05 greeted Friday’s open at 39.55, whose recovery would reinstate the attraction above to 42.00-42.35. Otherwise, having tested 39.55, closing back under 39.05 would signal the bounce had failed and begin reversing momentum back down.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Initially extending Thursday’s recovery into Friday’s open, the morning’s reaction down to test 1.99 support keeps alive the upward momentum, although a second consecutive higher close would be more bullish.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Probing a fresh high Wednesday night had been retraced before Thursday’s open, which continued to be resisted by 1.1435 to maintain the topping pattern while awaiting a break under the 1.1345 sell signal.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging overnight from Wednesday’s 1224.50 close retested last week’s overnight attack on “higher prior lows” up to 1245.00. Gapping up is still not a valid start to a durable rally, but this attempt my take multiple days and multiple legs before failing. Meanwhile, a dip to 1234.00 would likely recover to above 1255.00, so long as 1228.50 holds as support.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Testing the 15.25 bounce limit Thursday has threatened the 14.70 minimum pullback objective, which otherwise remains in-play.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
At least touching 165-00 “lower prior highs” Wednesday did not delay recovering Thursday, already probing Tuesday’s 166-15 prior highs up to at least 167-00. Gapping up from the corrective was an overly-optimistic start to resuming the rally, but a pullback to 165-12 can be avoided by holding 166-10.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s night’s test of 38.25 which had been critical support on the way down should launch the next downleg to the 34.25 and 31.85 targets. Closing above 39.05-39.10 would start to signal that downside momentum had lapsed.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Thursday back above 1.95 helped to confirm that Wednesday’s break under it was not strong-handed, and also confirmed that EIA was not being greeted from a position of weakness. Closing above 1.95 and higher would still signal a new upleg underway to probe above 2.08.