Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still hovering above the 1.1345 sell signal, Wednesday firmed back up to the highs, still holding a test of 1.1435 to maintain the topping pattern.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having neutralized both the gap down to Monday’s 1219.50 close and up to Tuesday’s 1229.50 close, Wednesday’s close at 1224.50 is at the pattern’s least predictable point There is no near-term attraction above or below. Closing beyond either 1228.00 above or 1218.00 below would be likely to extend in that direction.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s gap down filled the gap back to Monday’s lower close and then essentially retested Tuesday’s high that had attacked the 15.25 bounce limit. A fresh low testing 14.70 remains likely.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s dip fulfilled the minimum bullish scenario of testing “lower prior highs” down to 165-00. By gapping down, the close back to Tuesday’s open is now an attraction above, as Tuesday’s gap up already was. The pullback has room down to 144-22 before threatening a more substantial pullback.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s close did NOT fulfill the eventual third lower close required by Friday’s confirmed breakout, so its lower attraction remains outstanding. Gapping up Wednesday created another attraction below, in addition to targeting 34.25 and 31.85: fill the gap back down to Tuesday’s close. Back under 36.95 would signal the decline has resumed.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down to test 1.90-1.95 all day Wednesday is not constructive to Tuesday’s intraday dip that held 1.95 support. And it is not greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength. Immediately recovering above 1.95 would likely compensate for the delay by quickly surging to fresh highs.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down was recovered intraday, but not above 1.1435, keeping alive the topping pattern that would be triggered under 1.1345.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up above 1228.00 instead of trending through it reflected impatient optimism while creating a gap back down to Monday’s close and 1224.50. A bigger bounce testing “higher prior lows” near 1250.00 can’t be discounted, but a durable recovery is unlikely on this leg. And back under 1224.50 again would be much less likely to recover.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Attacking the 15.25 bounce limit to within 2-3 cents before Tuesday’s open had plenty of time to extend higher, but did not, leaving in-play the fresh lows targeting 14.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s coiling was rewarded by gapping up Tuesday to fresh highs testing 166-16. A dip to “lower prior highs” around 165-00 would help to neutralize their attraction below before extending higher.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Closing even only slightly negative Tuesday is still enough to fulfill Friday’s confirmed breakout that required at least one eventual lower close after Monday. It’s still $1 short of the 34.25 minimum objective, which suggests the decline will extend deeper, potentially also to 31.85.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping under 1.95 Tuesday would have created a bearish setup from Monday’s pattern. Trending down intraday to test 1.95 instead has filled the gap back to Friday’s close, neutralizing the attraction below. Potential remains alive for resuming the rally so long as 1.92 holds as support.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Flat-to-narrow ranging Monday consolidated at or under the 1.1345 resistance which must hold through the close to continue forming a topping pattern.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s bounce to 1224.50 resistance was retrace Monday back down to 1218.00 support whose break through the close would confirm new relative lows in-play targeting 1188.50-1192.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Failing to recover 15.25 keeps alive the breaks initial target at 14.70, and potentially lower.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Coiling Monday withing Fridays’ range maintained the recovery above the prior Friday’s 164-10 buy signal. Room for a pullback down to 162-20 would is allowed while maintaining the recovery attempt, but its test wouldn’t be optimal after Monday.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s break to the 36.95 sell signal was probed Monday by $1, presumably abandoning any near-term potential for testing the high’s 42.00-42.35 open before trending back down to the lows.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Having held a retest of its 1.92 support both Thursday and Friday, Monday’s gap up to the 2.02 highs extended higher immediately to essentially fulfill the longstanding 2.08 objective. Its reaction back down to the prior highs should be only temporary, as the delay has likely refueled buyers for a more substantial rally.