Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up a little ahead of Friday’s payrolls report was retraced back into Thursday’s range. Blipping-up filled the open’s gap before reversing down more substantially. Reacting back up never fully recovered, holding 1.1435 resistance. Closing under 1.1345 would signal momentum reversing down.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s dip had already retested the upper-end of 1218.00-1224.50 support. Its test already produced a rally, back to prior highs,. There was no bullish reason to revisit it, so revisiting it Friday extended down to the range’s lower-end, and through it to attack 1210.00. Closing back above its upper-would still be bullish — in fact, a bounce was testing 1224.50 as resistance before the close. But closing under 1218.00 would signal a new downleg underway targeting 1188.50-1192.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing Thursday above 15.38-15.44 without trending up intraday had made its breakout all the more dependent on being confirmed by a second consecutive higher close. The alternative would target 14.70. It was attacked to within a dime after gapping down Friday, and remains in-play so long as 15.25 is not recovered.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A second consecutive higher close Friday would confirm Thursday’s breakout above 164-10, next targeting 165-20, and then 168-00.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Delaying a recovery from retesting the 38.25 prior low has opened the door to triggering a donwleg under 36.95 targeting 34.00 and 32.00. Having tested 36.95 intraday Friday, only closing above 38.25 would reject the new downside risk, and closing above 39.05 would target a retest of 42.00-42.35.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s dip back down to 1.93 wasn’t absorbed immediately and was still being tested throughout Friday morning. It must hold to maintain the bullish scenario next targeting 2.07 and higher.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up to fresh highs Thursday created a new piece of “unfinished business above” at the session open, which will want to be tested from below before a top can fully form. Closing above 1.1435 could avoid topping, if probed aggressively.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having held a test of the 1218.00-1224.50 range’s upper-end at Wednesday’s pullback low, bouncing again Thursday could qualify as another recovery effort by closing above Tuesday’s 1242.00 high.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up through Monday’s 15.38 high and extending its recovery suggests a bounce targeting 15.88 is underway, so long as Friday closes higher, too.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s dip to test 163-16 support held through Thursday and firmed intraday, testing Friday’s 164-10 high whose break would restart the recovery.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The retest of last week’s lows held for a second consecutive session Thursday, while firming back up to 39.05 resistance, whose recovery would position the pattern for also triggering the 39.55 buy signal.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Momentarily printing a fresh high at Thursday’s open improved the position of strength greeting the morning’s EIA report, but it didn’t prevent reacting down anyway to 1.93 support. Now closing above 1.99 would resume the rally targeting 2.07.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending higher Wednesday not only fulfilled the 1.1335 attraction, but also probed fresh highs up to 1.1391. Having begun the high’s retest from only a relatively shallow pullback, a topping pattern may now form and trigger back under 1.1319.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite probing higher after Tuesday’s close, Wednesday’s open gapped down and eventually fell further to 1223.00 support, whose recovery through the close maintains potential for resuming the recovery. Closing  back under 1216.50 would instead launch a new downleg.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Closing above Monday’s 15.38 high Wednesday, would have confirmed Tuesday’s recovery of 15.25, but initially probing above 15.40 was retraced back down to and through 15.25. Closing above 15.38 would still target 15.88.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s close above both 163-16 and Friday’s 164-10 prior high failed to confirm with a higher close Wednesday. The intraday reaction down to 162-23 recovered 163-16 whose recovery through the close would avoid greeting Friday’s Employment Situation report from a position of weakness.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up above 39.05 Wednesday was appropriate for rejecting Tuesday’s non-trending gap down that only hovered at prior lows. Initially extending higher also tested the 39.55 buy signal, but its reaction down filled the gap back down to Tuesday’s 38.35 close.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still firming Wednesday not only confirmed the recovery above 1.85 targeting 1.99, but also greets Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength likely either to extend sharply higher, or else first absorb an initially negative knee-jerk reaction down.