Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday initially began retracing Monday’s firming — at least, correcting back towards last week’s lows. Reaction to Yellen’s noon hour comments triggered a surge attacking the 1.1335 attraction above. That’s now likely to be tested prior to a deeper pullback first, so also likely to be forming a top.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday morning’s probe above 1223.00 resistance touched 1229.00 before correcting back under 1223.00. The next break above 1223.00 on Yellen’s comments surged to test the 1240.00 area. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm the pullback had ended and the rally had resumed. No higher close would target at least a retest of 1223.00.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing well under 15.25 Tuesday morning was recovered in reaction to Yellen’s comments. Closing above Monday’s 15.88 high would have been more credible. But closing under 15.25 Wednesday would be unlikely to pause again before probing under 14.90 or lower.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Testing 163-16 again finally broke higher, aided by Yellen’s comments. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would confirm a bottom had formed, just ahead of Friday’s payrolls report. Closing back under 163-16 would suggest otherwise, but fresh lows still aren’t in-play without also closing under 162-07.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s attack on 38.00 was probed under 38.00 Tuesday, after Sunday night’s probe above 39.55 failed into Monday’s open. Closing back above 39.55 would still target 42.00-42.35 where a more durable top could form.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The 1.85 challenge may be resolving higher as Tuesday’s probe above it extended higher intraday. A second consecutive higher close on Wednesday would confirm the 1.99 target is in-play.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Firming Monday filled Tuesday’s small gap back up to 1.1145 that had been left outstanding during last week’s slide. Closing higher Tuesday would suggest a top is already forming. Otherwise there remains potential for extending the pullback to 1.1150-1.1155.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s flash crash to 1206.00 was recovered before the open to regain the 1216.50-1223.00 range intraday. Closing above or below it at this stage would now be likely to extend in that direction.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday continued fluctuating narrowly around 14.25, and not forming a pattern with any predictive value either way.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying Monday morning tested 163-16 whose recovery would start to signal the bottoming pattern had completed already, still subject to a second consecutive higher confirming close. Back under 162-07 would target fresh lows at 160-28.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing above 39.55 Sunday night was erased by Monday’s open, and 39.55 held as resistance to a narrow intraday range. Recovering 39.55 would still target 42.00-42.35.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Monday helped to confirm that Thursday’s softer reaction to the EIA report was not necessarily weakness, and it may have absorbed the last of a corrective dip before resuming the rally targeting 1.99.