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Bigger Picture – Page 379 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bigger Picture

Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link

Pardon me for interrupting your Easter weekend. I just thought you’d like to know the chaRTroom will soon open to monitor overnight Globex trading.

Enter the room by CLICKING HERE.

I’ll be checking in later, and will annotate the chart if anything interesting develops.

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 28, 2016

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: Coming back from a three-day weekend has slightly more econ reports than usual scheduled. Among them, only PMI has a track record for influencing price action. But the extra load starting out the week does create opportunity for contradicting data, or confirmation of extreme reports.

International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET

Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET

*PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET

Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET

Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET

3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

The Universe, week of March 28, 2016… One out of four!

[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

Two months ago I began pointing out the improvement among percentage of stocks rising above their 4-week moving averages. This was enhanced by my anecdotal count of stock no longer down, but flat. And the future looked bright.

In fact, percentages continued improving, from single-digits to double-digits, consistently week after week after week.

That improvement has persisted, and the rate shouldn’t be surprising considering its recent history. Nevertheless, even I would have had difficulty agreeing two months ago that today one-fourth of our universe is trading in uptrends. That’s right, 24%. As surprisingly and as relevant is that’s equal to the percentage of stocks in downtrends, and not far fewer as has been more usual.

Much, much more important is the stocks that are extending beyond their first surges. Growing legs, as it were. Stocks like CANV, TRTC, and CBDS, which already had perfectly respectable rallies but have no extended. Or stocks like CBIS, which has tamed an overly-optimistic surge to form an accumulation pattern poised to break higher. Stocks like SRNA which pushed under key support recently, but even more recently have pushed back up above relevant resistance.

If you own a cannabis stock that has been probing lower and lower lows into this week, there’s something wrong with it. Something seriously wrong. Especially if the company is touting a positive story which price continues to erode.

There’s another side, too. Recall the 71-area buy zone I described after GWPH‘s double last week on results of its clinical trials. The reaction down got there quickly, which I noted here last week, before the week began by shooting straight back up to test 87. Good for it. But what of two other relatively liquid issues like INSY and CARA? I’d still like CARA to retest its lows, but INSY should be attracting buyers soon if not already.

A very late surge in the very illiquid XTRA makes me very interested in any initial strength Monday. Recent boiling beneath the surface in AMMJ suggest that its time may be coming. There were very few other new stocks of interest this week. Perhaps the sector is preparing to correct. I’m just impressed that it has an uptrend it can correct, now approaching the sector top’s two-year anniversary.

Marijuana Stock Universe for March 28, 2016
Reference this table during stock reactions
4-week # up: 24 30.38%
trends* # flat: 30 37.97%
# down: 25 31.65%
*The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks.
symbol support resistance 4-week trend
AERO 1.600 2.270 up
AGTK 0.004 0.007 down
AMMJ 0.085 0.160 flat
ARNA 1.520 1.970 flat
ATTBF 0.035 0.075 flat
BLOZF 0.160 0.220 up
BLPG 0.015 0.030 flat
BRDT 0.012 0.031 flat
BTFL 0.000 0.005 down
CAFS 0.001 0.004 down
CANL 0.053 0.290 flat
CANN 0.350 0.550 down
CANV 0.290 0.550 up
CARA 2.750 5.900 down
CBDS 3.000 5.200 up
CBIS 0.017 0.024 up
CGRW 0.580 0.820 up
CHUM n/a n/a down
CNAB 0.490 0.760 up
DEWM 0.004 0.006 up
DIGP 0.120 0.220 down
EAPH 0.004 0.009 up
EDXC 0.017 0.032 up
ENCC n/a n/a flat
ENDO 0.012 0.012 up
ENRT 0.005 0.014 flat
ERBB 0.001 0.003 flat
ETST n/a n/a flat
EXMT 0.000 0.004 up
FITX 0.001 0.004 down
FULL 2.400 2.800 up
GBLX 0.175 0.280 flat
GRNH 0.029 0.047 flat
GWPH 71.500 87.000 up
HEMP 0.036 0.070 up
IMLFF 0.040 0.115 down
INQD n/a n/a flat
INSY 14.950 21.250 down
ITNS 0.001 0.005 flat
KAYS 0.067 0.187 down
LXRP 0.100 0.220 flat
MCIG 0.029 0.052 up
MDBX 0.006 0.051 down
MDRM 0.040 0.108 up
MINE 0.019 0.040 down
MJMJ 0.000 0.001 flat
MJNA 0.028 0.044 down
MNTR 0.540 1.100 up
MSRT 0.830 1.410 up
MYEC 0.000 1.000 down
MYHI 0.013 0.100 up
NMUS 0.450 1.070 flat
NTRR 1.120 1.800 flat
OGRMF 0.435 0.630 flat
OXIS 0.200 1.640 down
PHOT 0.020 0.040 flat
PLPL 0.063 0.108 flat
PMCB 0.043 0.074 down
PNTV 0.002 0.004 up
PZOO 0.000 0.002 down
RMHB 0.028 0.051 flat
RSSFF 0.030 0.100 down
SING 0.006 0.014 flat
SPRWF 0.225 0.375 up
SRNA 0.074 0.112 flat
STEV 0.015 0.037 down
TAUG 0.001 0.004 flat
TRTC 0.250 0.351 up
TURV 0.463 0.770 flat
TWMJF 1.800 2.400 flat
UPOT 0.010 0.050 down
VAPE 0.003 0.023 flat
VAPR 0.000 0.020 down
VGPR 0.000 0.002 down
VHUB 0.025 0.048 up
VPCO 0.000 0.095 down
WOGI 0.001 0.004 flat
XTRM 0.001 0.004 flat
XXII 0.690 1.005 down

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
By gapping down within the prior day’s range instead of under it, Thursday’s open was the most bullish development since last week’s high. But it still didn’t react to 1.1190 support, suggesting a deeper pullback to 1.1150-1.1155 remains underway.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing $5 under the 1216.50-1223.00 target area overnight and then reacting up early Thursday to probe its upper-end may be helping to form a bottom. A couple of consecutive closes above 1223.00 would signal and confirm.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming from Wednesday’s test of 15.25 didn’t extend the break under 15.70, which will allow for a recovery to form without probing back under 14.70.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing intraday above 163-16 was reversed back into negative territory Thursday. Still overlapping it at Wednesday’s close keeps the door open to fresh lows targeting 160-28.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 39.50 pullback target was overshot Thursday down to 38.33, but then attack into the closing strength. Having tested “lower prior highs,” a retest of the recent 42.00-42.35 gap up would likely form a durable top.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
There was no clear resolution from greeting Thursday’s EIA report not from a position of weakness, but also not from a position of strength. But there was nevertheless a vulnerability to extending down, and it was not exploited. The session held 1.80 support, so closing back above 1.85 would be likely to resume the rally targeting 1.99.