Bigger Picture
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
Pardon me for interrupting your Easter weekend. I just thought you’d like to know the chaRTroom will soon open to monitor overnight Globex trading.
Enter the room by CLICKING HERE.
I’ll be checking in later, and will annotate the chart if anything interesting develops.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Mar 28, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Coming back from a three-day weekend has slightly more econ reports than usual scheduled. Among them, only PMI has a track record for influencing price action. But the extra load starting out the week does create opportunity for contradicting data, or confirmation of extreme reports.
International Trade in Goods
8:30 AM ET
Personal Income and Outlays
8:30 AM ET
*PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
Pending Home Sales Index
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
The Universe, week of March 28, 2016… One out of four!
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Two months ago I began pointing out the improvement among percentage of stocks rising above their 4-week moving averages. This was enhanced by my anecdotal count of stock no longer down, but flat. And the future looked bright.
In fact, percentages continued improving, from single-digits to double-digits, consistently week after week after week.
That improvement has persisted, and the rate shouldn’t be surprising considering its recent history. Nevertheless, even I would have had difficulty agreeing two months ago that today one-fourth of our universe is trading in uptrends. That’s right, 24%. As surprisingly and as relevant is that’s equal to the percentage of stocks in downtrends, and not far fewer as has been more usual.
Much, much more important is the stocks that are extending beyond their first surges. Growing legs, as it were. Stocks like CANV, TRTC, and CBDS, which already had perfectly respectable rallies but have no extended. Or stocks like CBIS, which has tamed an overly-optimistic surge to form an accumulation pattern poised to break higher. Stocks like SRNA which pushed under key support recently, but even more recently have pushed back up above relevant resistance.
If you own a cannabis stock that has been probing lower and lower lows into this week, there’s something wrong with it. Something seriously wrong. Especially if the company is touting a positive story which price continues to erode.
There’s another side, too. Recall the 71-area buy zone I described after GWPH‘s double last week on results of its clinical trials. The reaction down got there quickly, which I noted here last week, before the week began by shooting straight back up to test 87. Good for it. But what of two other relatively liquid issues like INSY and CARA? I’d still like CARA to retest its lows, but INSY should be attracting buyers soon if not already.
A very late surge in the very illiquid XTRA makes me very interested in any initial strength Monday. Recent boiling beneath the surface in AMMJ suggest that its time may be coming. There were very few other new stocks of interest this week. Perhaps the sector is preparing to correct. I’m just impressed that it has an uptrend it can correct, now approaching the sector top’s two-year anniversary.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for March 28, 2016 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 24 | 30.38% |
| trends* | # flat: | 30 | 37.97% |
| # down: | 25 | 31.65% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| AERO | 1.600 | 2.270 | up |
| AGTK | 0.004 | 0.007 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.085 | 0.160 | flat |
| ARNA | 1.520 | 1.970 | flat |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | flat |
| BLOZF | 0.160 | 0.220 | up |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.030 | flat |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | flat |
| BTFL | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| CANL | 0.053 | 0.290 | flat |
| CANN | 0.350 | 0.550 | down |
| CANV | 0.290 | 0.550 | up |
| CARA | 2.750 | 5.900 | down |
| CBDS | 3.000 | 5.200 | up |
| CBIS | 0.017 | 0.024 | up |
| CGRW | 0.580 | 0.820 | up |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.490 | 0.760 | up |
| DEWM | 0.004 | 0.006 | up |
| DIGP | 0.120 | 0.220 | down |
| EAPH | 0.004 | 0.009 | up |
| EDXC | 0.017 | 0.032 | up |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | flat |
| ENDO | 0.012 | 0.012 | up |
| ENRT | 0.005 | 0.014 | flat |
| ERBB | 0.001 | 0.003 | flat |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| FULL | 2.400 | 2.800 | up |
| GBLX | 0.175 | 0.280 | flat |
| GRNH | 0.029 | 0.047 | flat |
| GWPH | 71.500 | 87.000 | up |
| HEMP | 0.036 | 0.070 | up |
| IMLFF | 0.040 | 0.115 | down |
| INQD | n/a | n/a | flat |
| INSY | 14.950 | 21.250 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | flat |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | down |
| LXRP | 0.100 | 0.220 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.029 | 0.052 | up |
| MDBX | 0.006 | 0.051 | down |
| MDRM | 0.040 | 0.108 | up |
| MINE | 0.019 | 0.040 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | flat |
| MJNA | 0.028 | 0.044 | down |
| MNTR | 0.540 | 1.100 | up |
| MSRT | 0.830 | 1.410 | up |
| MYEC | 0.000 | 1.000 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | up |
| NMUS | 0.450 | 1.070 | flat |
| NTRR | 1.120 | 1.800 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.435 | 0.630 | flat |
| OXIS | 0.200 | 1.640 | down |
| PHOT | 0.020 | 0.040 | flat |
| PLPL | 0.063 | 0.108 | flat |
| PMCB | 0.043 | 0.074 | down |
| PNTV | 0.002 | 0.004 | up |
| PZOO | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RMHB | 0.028 | 0.051 | flat |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.006 | 0.014 | flat |
| SPRWF | 0.225 | 0.375 | up |
| SRNA | 0.074 | 0.112 | flat |
| STEV | 0.015 | 0.037 | down |
| TAUG | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| TRTC | 0.250 | 0.351 | up |
| TURV | 0.463 | 0.770 | flat |
| TWMJF | 1.800 | 2.400 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.010 | 0.050 | down |
| VAPE | 0.003 | 0.023 | flat |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.020 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | up |
| VPCO | 0.000 | 0.095 | down |
| WOGI | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 0.690 | 1.005 | down |
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
By gapping down within the prior day’s range instead of under it, Thursday’s open was the most bullish development since last week’s high. But it still didn’t react to 1.1190 support, suggesting a deeper pullback to 1.1150-1.1155 remains underway.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing $5 under the 1216.50-1223.00 target area overnight and then reacting up early Thursday to probe its upper-end may be helping to form a bottom. A couple of consecutive closes above 1223.00 would signal and confirm.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming from Wednesday’s test of 15.25 didn’t extend the break under 15.70, which will allow for a recovery to form without probing back under 14.70.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing intraday above 163-16 was reversed back into negative territory Thursday. Still overlapping it at Wednesday’s close keeps the door open to fresh lows targeting 160-28.
Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 39.50 pullback target was overshot Thursday down to 38.33, but then attack into the closing strength. Having tested “lower prior highs,” a retest of the recent 42.00-42.35 gap up would likely form a durable top.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
There was no clear resolution from greeting Thursday’s EIA report not from a position of weakness, but also not from a position of strength. But there was nevertheless a vulnerability to extending down, and it was not exploited. The session held 1.80 support, so closing back above 1.85 would be likely to resume the rally targeting 1.99.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Mar 25, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Markets are closed for Good Friday. Econ reports still seem to be scheduled, despite Globex not trading.
GDP
8:30 AM ET
Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
