Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down again Wednesday met the minimum objective at 1.1190, still having potential for extending down to 1.1150 before retesting last week’s highs.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing overnight to 1262.00 didn’t invalidate the bearish pattern which was confirmed by closing Tuesday under 1250.20. Extending down sharply overnight greeted Wednesday’s open at the minimum 1223.00 objective, which was probed during the morning to briefly test the lower target at 1216.50 before bouncing back up to 1223.00. A bottom may now form, but an immediate recovery attempt would be suspicious.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down and extending lower intraday Wednesday fulfilled the minimum objective at 15.25. No lower objective is required, although not recovering through Thursday morning would next likely probe under 15.00.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Completely retracing Tuesday’s gap up to and through the 162-07 bounce limit didn’t prevent rallying Wednesday back through the 162-07 bounce limit and the gap back to Monday’s 163-05 by several ticks. Closing back under 162-07 would resume the decline’s momentum, but meanwhile this bounce has potential to 163-16 before either resuming the decline or launching a massive rally.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down to and through recent lows Wednesday extended down through the morning to attack 40.00, likely heading to a test of “lower prior highs” at 39,.50 before filling last Friday’s opening gap at 42.00-42.35.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming immediately above 1.85 Wednesday still didn’t extend higher intraday as another slight dip developed. That pullback limit has failed to hold, but neither has it launched a new downleg, so a recovery remains possible.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Tuesday may be trying to accelerate the temporary dip back down to “lower prior highs” at 1.1190 down to 1.1155 as was suggested by two consecutive sessions of sliding shallowly but relentlessly off the high.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Terrorist fears triggered a rally that tested 1262.00 resistance overnight and the 1255.40 bounce limit intraday. Dipping back under 1250.20 helps to confirm the 1216.50 and 1223.00 targets remain in-play.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Tuesday morning remained within the range and likely only noise before breaking back under 15.70 to the 15.25 target, if not also lower.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Falling stocks seemed to be the trigger for Tuesday’s gap up to the 162-07 bounce limit. But extending higher post-open to 163-00 accompanied stocks firming, and then recovering. Regardless of the intraday extesion, 162-07 failed to hold, leaving the decline’s momentum and its 160-28 target remain intact.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Strength attacking 41.75 stopped short of filling the opening gap back up to 42.00-42.35 before weakening again. A deeper detour to “lower prior highs” at 39.50 might inject itself before completing the topping pattern.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up 2 cents Tuesday suggested that Monday’s late probe under 1.85 could be rejected. But the balance of the morning dipped back down and probed Monday’s late low. Closing back above 1.85 would suggest the 1.99 target remains in-play.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s slow and shallow slide doesn’t complete a top, but it might launch an aggressive dip Tuesday before its recovery Wednesday or Thursday can begin completing a top. The alternative to dipping aggressively is to resume the rally, but likely only by surging — any muted strength would be less likely to extend.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Breaking Friday under 1262.00 to test 1250.20 support was not bullish, which Monday’s drop to 1242.00 proved. Closing under 1250.20 now allows no consideration for a buy signal before first testing the 1216.50-1223.00 target area.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up to 15.70 and extending to fresh highs intraday without closing above prior highs last week was bearish. Initial weakness Monday suggested as much, although the session mostly only ranged around unchanged.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
My concerns about Thursday and Friday’s “ineffectual optimism” were confirmed by Monday’s gap down that slid sharply intraday to retest the prior trading range. Monday’s 161-20 low would have been bullish support if tested before trying ineffectually to break high. Instead, it is now likely to be broken on the way to fresh lows at 160-28.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s weakness was recovered in time for Monday to range somewhat narrowly around unchanged. Friday’s gap open above prior highs at 42.00-42.30 (basis May, 40.70-41.00 basis Apr) should be retested to form a durable top.

Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Monday from Friday’s fresh high close now leaves “unfinished business above” that should help to attract price higher and resume the rally targeting 1.99, so long as the pullback holds its test of 1.85.