Bigger Picture
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom by CLICKING HERE.
I’ll be checking in later, and will annotate the chart if anything interesting develops.
The Universe, week of March 7, 2016… With special announcement
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
This is still the first week in more than 6 months to be greeted by double-digit number of cannabis stocks that are in rising 4-week trends.
The rate of improvement did slow from prior weeks. So, this week is likely to inflect — either our readings will dip back down, or accelerate to an even more substantial rate of improvement. If the former, there is room for a brief pullback, and the recent gains suggest a dip would be only temporary.
If the latter, then the improvement should be obvious. Is something on the horizon that might account for the accumulation? Not an investment conference, but a legislative action, or a certain presidential candidate’s chances improving? We may soon see…
On another note, expect to receive new login instructions in the next two days. Our virtual portfolio partnership will start simultaneously, and Investment Policy Committee meetings will commence.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for March 7, 2016 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 10 | 12.20% |
| trends* | # flat: | 27 | 32.93% |
| # down: | 45 | 54.88% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| AERO | 1.500 | 1.500 | flat |
| AGTK | 0.005 | 0.009 | up |
| AMMJ | 0.070 | 0.160 | flat |
| ARNA | 0.950 | 1.650 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | flat |
| BLOZF | 0.087 | 0.163 | flat |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | flat |
| BTFL | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| CANL | 0.053 | 0.290 | flat |
| CANN | 0.350 | 0.550 | down |
| CANV | 0.110 | 0.215 | flat |
| CARA | 2.750 | 5.900 | down |
| CBDS | 0.070 | 0.600 | down |
| CBIS | 0.005 | 0.017 | down |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.150 | 0.330 | down |
| DEWM | 0.002 | 0.004 | up |
| DIGP | 0.120 | 0.220 | down |
| EAPH | 0.004 | 0.009 | flat |
| EDXC | 0.007 | 0.019 | down |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | flat |
| ENDO | 0.005 | 0.009 | flat |
| ENRT | 0.005 | 0.014 | down |
| ERBB | 0.001 | 0.003 | flat |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | down |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| FITX | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| FULL | 2.050 | 2.520 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.175 | 0.280 | up |
| GRNH | 0.009 | 0.029 | down |
| GWPH | 37.750 | 51.450 | down |
| HEMP | 0.010 | 0.040 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.110 | 0.180 | flat |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 14.950 | 21.250 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | flat |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LXRP | 0.060 | 0.110 | down |
| MCIG | 0.029 | 0.052 | up |
| MDBX | 0.006 | 0.051 | down |
| MDRM | 0.040 | 0.108 | up |
| MINE | 0.019 | 0.040 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | flat |
| MJNA | 0.028 | 0.044 | down |
| MNTR | 0.220 | 0.036 | flat |
| MSRT | 0.830 | 1.410 | down |
| MYEC | 0.008 | 0.012 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | down |
| NMUS | 0.450 | 1.070 | flat |
| NTRR | 1.120 | 1.800 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.435 | 0.630 | down |
| OXIS | 0.470 | 2.650 | down |
| PHOT | 0.034 | 0.076 | up |
| PLPL | 0.063 | 0.108 | flat |
| PMCB | 0.043 | 0.074 | down |
| PNTV | 0.001 | 0.003 | flat |
| PZOO | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RMHB | 0.028 | 0.051 | flat |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.006 | 0.014 | up |
| SPRWF | 0.225 | 0.375 | up |
| SRNA | 0.052 | 0.087 | down |
| STEV | 0.015 | 0.037 | down |
| TAUG | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| TRTC | 0.115 | 0.160 | up |
| TURV | 0.463 | 0.770 | flat |
| TWMJF | 1.800 | 2.400 | up |
| UPOT | 0.010 | 0.050 | down |
| VAPE | 0.003 | 0.023 | flat |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.020 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | down |
| VPCO | 0.000 | 0.095 | down |
| WOGI | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 0.089 | 1.395 | down |
Saturday Review’s recording (for 3/5/16) …
The rally extended to its highest levels Friday, while also fulfilling the highest calculable price objectives for a correction. Extending any higher would essentially target new highs. This weekend’s Saturday Review discusses several setups that will help to know which way the market is resolving.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
LL, PII, GMO, NVDA, BKX, AAPL, TSLA, PNRA, NKE, CSCO, TWTR, UPS, TPX, AYR, SAM
03/05/2016 09:25:17 sm: Can we review the key elements of a Globex Trend Extreme and examples of price action that do not meet the requirements for an intraday retest?
03/05/2016 09:32:45 David B: Good Morning
03/05/2016 09:32:47 Mark Glezer: gm
03/05/2016 09:32:48 David B: yes
03/05/2016 09:32:56 Javier: yes
03/05/2016 09:36:10 sm: That pattern sure looks a lot like Aug – Oct 2015
03/05/2016 09:58:06 MK: are there sleeper highs?
03/05/2016 10:00:18 MK: aka the 22nd-24th?
03/05/2016 10:00:43 MK: of feb
03/05/2016 10:02:35 David B: because this was a friday should we be suspious that the trend is ending?
03/05/2016 10:03:55 MK: thats not the 22nds
03/05/2016 10:03:57 MK: there we go
03/05/2016 10:04:14 MK: yes that pattern
03/05/2016 10:04:20 MK: from the 22nd to the 24th
03/05/2016 10:04:24 MK: that then continues the trend higher
03/05/2016 10:04:34 MK: it fits with the “sleeper low”
03/05/2016 10:04:43 MK: trending
03/05/2016 10:05:01 MK: I’l try and explain better
03/05/2016 10:05:12 MK: i basically reversed your example of the “sleeper low”
03/05/2016 10:05:29 MK:
03/05/2016 10:05:54 MK: another clarifying question. So basically one more higher close is really bad
03/05/2016 10:06:04 Bill G: Can there be intraday spike above 2009 without a close that will not require new highs?
03/05/2016 10:06:08 MK: for those of us that just got massively short
03/05/2016 10:07:20 builder from Oregon: Your sell right after the high was because it had broken the 7 tick that had held for almost 1 hour. With volume breath of +500k, that was a gutsy call.
03/05/2016 10:08:09 Bill G: A dn monday might allow a pivot reversal on Tues?
03/05/2016 10:08:50 MK: gapping up and failing woudl be ideal NO?
03/05/2016 10:11:51 sm: thx
03/05/2016 10:13:45 MK: ok
03/05/2016 10:13:48 MK: i know that
03/05/2016 10:17:38 MK: what happens if no fireworks?
03/05/2016 10:18:08 MK: no fireworks == close above 2009
03/05/2016 10:21:09 builder from Oregon: I passed on the trade because of the breath
03/05/2016 10:22:37 Bill G: Dn open on Tues
03/05/2016 10:22:57 Bill G: No
03/05/2016 10:24:20 Bill G: Dn open ,New high and close below the morning low?
03/05/2016 10:24:58 Mark Glezer: shallow close by a few points can still qualify as a higher close required?
03/05/2016 10:27:15 Bill G: Dn Mon prevents a new high close.
03/05/2016 10:28:03 sm: I like that analogy
03/05/2016 10:28:05 David B: has his been a strong handed rally from the low two weeks ago?
03/05/2016 10:29:25 MK: gotta leave early so stocks….
03/05/2016 10:29:34 MK: LL (bottoming)
03/05/2016 10:29:45 MK: PII
03/05/2016 10:29:52 MK: PNRA
03/05/2016 10:30:06 MK: NKE that good enough to end the rally
03/05/2016 10:30:31 MK: AAPl
03/05/2016 10:30:42 MK: UPS
03/05/2016 10:31:14 MK: TPX (That good enough to end it? Sell Signal & lower obj)
03/05/2016 10:31:35 MK: AYR
03/05/2016 10:31:55 MK: SAM
03/05/2016 10:32:08 Mark Glezer: optimism around 1800 low’s retest still suggests a bear mkt rallly?
03/05/2016 10:32:15 Josey: GIMO, NVDA,CSCO
03/05/2016 10:32:16 MK: thanks
03/05/2016 10:32:28 MK: i just watch the whole thing
03/05/2016 10:32:32 MK: i like other peoples ideas
03/05/2016 10:35:51 sm: BKX
03/05/2016 10:39:43 William: gm….late to the party i;ll catch up later but AAPL , and TSLA , TWTR. Thanks and good weekend to all ;)
03/05/2016 10:41:41 Josey: yes
03/05/2016 11:17:29 Mark Glezer: thx
03/05/2016 11:17:33 Josey: Ty
03/05/2016 11:17:44 sm: thx
03/05/2016 11:17:58 Bill G: Have a good one
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us at either link below by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review.
We’ll discuss the bigger picture, and then review any stock charts that you request.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap up and extension above the 1.0900 buy signal was extended higher Friday, to within just several pips of its 1.1050 objective.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The lower-end of the 1274.00-1288.00 noise range above the 1265.00 target was tested Friday, opening the door to a reversal setup forming.
Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s surge finally neutralized the longstanding attraction above at the 15.70 gap up above what was all prior highs at the time, and also filled an interim gap close. It’s also a breakout to fresh relative highs, but a second consecutive higher close to confirm is unlikely on Mondays. Back under 15.55 would signal the surge had failed.
30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Reacting down twice Friday — both before and after the Employment Situation report — tested fresh lows around 161-24 support that had defined the week’s earlier low. The drop’s origin after closing above 164-14 suggests the dip is only temporary. Closing back above 162-20 would signal the trend reversing up.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The daily probe of slightly higher highs was accelerated Friday by a surge to attack 36.00 which allows raising the sell signal to 33.95.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows overnight and Friday followed Thursday’s poor EIA reaction for having greeted the news from a position of weakness. Recovering the lows through the close didn’t alter what is still an ongonig series of lower lows and lower highs, whose buy signal is triggered above 1.70.