Bigger Picture
The Universe, week of February 29 2016…
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Welcome to the first annual Leap Year edition of The Universe. In honor of the special day, cannabis stocks have been leaping, too.
Bad puns aside, patterns continued improving. Only a couple more “up” qualifiers above heir 4-week moving averages, but that’s still the best level in months. Most of last week’s improvement was among “down” qualifiers, whose ranks dropped dramatically while many of their number were upgraded to “flat.”
That’s not to say every stock is coming back. Many still trade sporadically, if at all. I’ll be winnowing them out of the coverage soon. Higher-profile CARA took its biggest tumble yet to new lows. But this is the first week in awhile without new lows ni GWPH, and its volume pattern is attractive.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for February 29, 2016 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 10 | 12.05% |
| trends* | # flat: | 27 | 32.53% |
| # down: | 46 | 55.42% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| AERO | 0.830 | 1.260 | flat |
| AGTK | 0.009 | 0.205 | up |
| AMMJ | 0.070 | 0.160 | flat |
| ARNA | 0.950 | 1.650 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | flat |
| BLOZF | 0.087 | 0.163 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | flat |
| BTFL | 0.002 | 0.005 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| CANL | 0.053 | 0.290 | down |
| CANN | 0.350 | 0.550 | flat |
| CANV | 0.110 | 0.215 | flat |
| CARA | 2.750 | 5.900 | down |
| CBDS | 0.070 | 0.600 | down |
| CBIS | 0.005 | 0.017 | down |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.150 | 0.330 | down |
| DEWM | 0.002 | 0.004 | flat |
| DIGP | 0.120 | 0.220 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.004 | 0.009 | flat |
| EDXC | 0.007 | 0.019 | down |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | flat |
| ENDO | 0.005 | 0.009 | flat |
| ENRT | 0.005 | 0.014 | down |
| ERBB | 0.001 | 0.003 | flat |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | down |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| FITX | 0.004 | 0.006 | up |
| FULL | 2.050 | 2.520 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.175 | 0.280 | up |
| GRNH | 0.026 | 0.042 | flat |
| GWPH | 37.750 | 51.450 | down |
| HEMP | 0.010 | 0.040 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | flat |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.110 | 0.180 | flat |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 14.950 | 21.250 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | up |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LXRP | 0.060 | 0.110 | down |
| MCIG | 0.029 | 0.052 | up |
| MDBX | 0.006 | 0.051 | down |
| MDRM | 0.025 | 0.060 | up |
| MINE | 0.019 | 0.040 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | flat |
| MJNA | 0.028 | 0.044 | down |
| MNTR | 0.220 | 0.036 | flat |
| MSRT | 0.830 | 1.410 | down |
| MYEC | 0.008 | 0.012 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | down |
| NMUS | 0.450 | 1.070 | flat |
| NTRR | 1.120 | 1.800 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.435 | 0.630 | down |
| OXIS | 0.470 | 2.650 | down |
| PHOT | 0.048 | 0.088 | up |
| PLPL | 0.026 | 0.069 | flat |
| PMCB | 0.043 | 0.074 | down |
| PNTV | 0.001 | 0.003 | flat |
| PZOO | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RMHB | 0.014 | 0.033 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.006 | 0.014 | up |
| SPRWF | 0.225 | 0.375 | up |
| SRNA | 0.052 | 0.087 | down |
| STEV | 0.015 | 0.037 | down |
| TAUG | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| TRTC | 0.115 | 0.160 | up |
| TURV | 0.463 | 0.770 | flat |
| TWMJF | 1.800 | 2.400 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.010 | 0.050 | down |
| VAPE | 0.003 | 0.023 | flat |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.020 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | down |
| VPCO | 0.000 | 0.095 | down |
| WOGI | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 0.089 | 1.395 | down |
Saturday Review’s recording (for 2/27/16) …
Last week’s Saturday Review described the more bearish path being to first probe fresh highs. Monday and Friday did just that. Did the interim dip refuel the rally for much more upside? How seriously should we take any new downlegs? These questions are discussed during this week’s Saturday Review, along with other questions and comments from subscribers.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
PANW, CAT, RARE, FB, BABA, HD, ULTA, NFLX, AMD, UNG, RYCEY, NKE, SBUX, EQIX, TITN, SWFT, TNA, DUST
02/27/2016 09:32:21 MK: yes
02/27/2016 09:32:22 Mark Glezer: gm
02/27/2016 09:32:23 sm: good
02/27/2016 09:32:23 tom: good
02/27/2016 09:32:24 Bill G: good
02/27/2016 09:32:30 ap: gm
02/27/2016 09:44:00 MK: so why are we not talking higher objectives?
02/27/2016 09:49:31 Mark Glezer: why gapping down too much wouldn’t be sentiment extreme & attract more buyers than sellers?
02/27/2016 09:51:20 MK: wasn’t the new trend high close was thursday?
02/27/2016 09:51:32 MK: oh ok nevermind
02/27/2016 09:58:27 casjf: do lower gaps remain outstanding forever until they are recovered, or can they ever be neutralized in another way?
02/27/2016 09:58:28 sm: What does two days of ‘obscure signals’ say about the charcter of the current market?
02/27/2016 09:58:50 Mark Glezer: higher first is still likelier than down ?
02/27/2016 10:00:43 sm: bias not being clear
02/27/2016 10:05:11 Bill G: SentimenTrader pointed out stock index futures as of Tues , small traders have record short positions. A jump of $5 billion to $8 billion over previous wk. Quite bullish.
02/27/2016 10:06:48 Josey: Looks like the cover rally
02/27/2016 10:07:31 MK: yeah bill i think that if we remailn higher as we creep towards end of quarter people will start to chase performance
02/27/2016 10:07:33 Josey: Panw CAT
02/27/2016 10:07:39 tom: rare
02/27/2016 10:07:43 MK: to make up for a horrendous 4q and start to 1q
02/27/2016 10:07:52 builder from Oregon: FB
02/27/2016 10:08:00 Bill G: I would agree
02/27/2016 10:08:09 Mark Glezer: BABA – played quick move from 69 to 65, any short potential on a bounce to 69.7 again?
02/27/2016 10:08:11 tom: HD,ULTA
02/27/2016 10:08:37 MK: NFLX
02/27/2016 10:08:40 MK: AMD
02/27/2016 10:09:15 MK: RYCEY
02/27/2016 10:09:44 MK: NKE
02/27/2016 10:11:10 MK: SBUX
02/27/2016 10:11:23 MK: EQIX
02/27/2016 10:11:25 MK: TITN
02/27/2016 10:11:37 MK: SWFT
02/27/2016 10:17:14 tom: thx
02/27/2016 10:17:32 casjf: UNG – if natural gas breaks up, would like to know support and level above which is a breakout
02/27/2016 10:18:47 MK: sweet going to increase my FB short
02/27/2016 10:20:04 Mark Glezer: Thu u said u wanted to see another bounce b4 shorting
02/27/2016 10:22:14 Mark Glezer: k
02/27/2016 10:24:44 MK: Ulta was Earnings
02/27/2016 10:24:48 MK: i was short into that
02/27/2016 10:24:49 MK: =)
02/27/2016 10:25:22 MK: this is a HF darling
02/27/2016 10:28:56 MK: 2011
02/27/2016 10:32:44 MK: European
02/27/2016 10:34:39 MK: the market LOVES hillary
02/27/2016 10:34:47 MK: i think thats the rub
02/27/2016 10:36:49 sm: Interesting observation. Thanks.
02/27/2016 10:37:14 Mark Glezer: lol
02/27/2016 10:37:18 MK: haha
02/27/2016 10:43:43 MK: just curious if that hight on the 16th deserves another higher close
02/27/2016 10:43:46 MK: as a breakout?
02/27/2016 10:44:32 MK: ok
02/27/2016 10:44:34 MK: next stock
02/27/2016 10:44:39 MK: no worries on the ADRs
02/27/2016 10:44:42 MK: as they are hard to chart
02/27/2016 10:50:38 MK: ok
02/27/2016 10:50:41 MK: interesting
02/27/2016 10:52:46 builder from Oregon: TNA
02/27/2016 10:55:23 MK: re: TITN total fraud
02/27/2016 10:56:20 MK: pennant
02/27/2016 10:56:21 MK: ?
02/27/2016 10:56:54 MK: that pattern in december/jan
02/27/2016 10:57:08 MK: similar to the other one that was expandiing
02/27/2016 10:57:25 MK: no 2015
02/27/2016 10:57:37 MK: the pattern you drew at the highs
02/27/2016 10:57:46 MK: you drew a similar pattern
02/27/2016 10:57:49 MK: on a different stock
02/27/2016 10:57:54 MK: that was the opposite
02/27/2016 10:57:55 MK: NO
02/27/2016 10:58:11 MK: the Dec/jan 2014 pattern
02/27/2016 10:58:16 MK: is the same pattern
02/27/2016 10:58:19 MK: as you did in a different stock
02/27/2016 10:58:23 MK: only it was flipped
02/27/2016 10:58:25 MK: yes
02/27/2016 10:58:30 MK: i like that
02/27/2016 10:58:36 MK: i just never noticed them
02/27/2016 10:58:40 MK: so thanks
02/27/2016 10:58:44 MK: i’m going to keep an eye out
02/27/2016 10:59:24 MK: thanks have a good weekend
02/27/2016 11:00:52 MK: can you do DUST if we are charting ETNs
02/27/2016 11:03:00 MK: I’m massively long
02/27/2016 11:03:07 MK: from around here
02/27/2016 11:03:16 MK: 4.70ish average
02/27/2016 11:04:01 MK: just looking for 8
02/27/2016 11:04:11 MK: cuious if thats an appropriate target
02/27/2016 11:04:32 MK: ok
02/27/2016 11:04:33 MK: tahnks
02/27/2016 11:04:51 MK: have a good one
02/27/2016 11:04:59 Josey: Ty, great session!
02/27/2016 11:05:06 MK: still think we’re going to 2000
02/27/2016 11:05:07 MK: =)
02/27/2016 11:05:13 sm: thanks
02/27/2016 11:05:15 MK: see you guys there in a couple week
02/27/2016 11:05:27 Mark Glezer: thx
Saturday Review Link – UPDATED
UPDATED MEETING ROOM ID…
Be sure to join us at either link below by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review.
We’ll discuss the bigger picture, and then review any stock charts that you request.
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us at either link below by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review.
We’ll discuss the bigger picture, and then review any stock charts that you request.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s pause in the ongoing decline was compensated by gapping down and extending relatively sharply lower. No immediate bounce would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Bouncing to 1242.00 resistance Thursday had failed to signal another upleg underway. Friday’s lower low now allows closing above 1227.50 to trigger a new upleg.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Only overlapping 15.15 support Thursday didn’t indicate whether its test had held, but Friday’s slide indicated it had not. Closing back above 15.15 would put back into play a test of 15.70.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Friday retraced 61.9% of Tuesday’s false break lower. That’s natural support, and constructive to the rally effort if Monday’s open were to gap up above Friday’s high to 166-12 and trend higher intraday.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending even higher overnight after testing the 32.70 bounce limit was able to probe fresh highs Friday up to 34.70. Reversing that back into negative territory suggests a bigger top is forming, and back under 32.55 would resume the decline.
Natural Gas Apr Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Not gapping up Friday prevented Thursday’s pattern from becoming an Island Reversal. Probing fresh lows intraday was recovered back into Thursday’s range. Gapping up Monday would still qualify, but there is no other reversal setup.