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Bigger Picture – Page 392 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bigger Picture

Overdue Update (and overdue replies)

My site developer is overseas, and overnight he sent me a group of comments that I wasn’t aware had been posted. He had been resolving a spamming issue — literally hundreds every day like these:

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and

今、あなたの基本的なアウトラインが行われていることを、あなたはあなたのラインが内側にカットしないでください外にカットすることになるでしょう。
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The developer had to disable posting while resolving the issue. Apparently, the issue was resolved last week, and he was monitoring it for a week before reporting back to me. Sort of a perfect storm. I wasn’t aware of that plan until this morning, or of several new valid comments made by subscribers, (my replies are included below) and had been replying normally to emails.

Meanwhile, I had fallen down on monitoring his progress due to a family situation that took me in and out of town for several weeks. While that situation is not totally resolved, this is the last week for it to interfere with launching the Investment Policy Committee and resuming Livestox.

My thanks to all for your patience. The cannabis space seems to be heating up, so I’m eager to do more coverage beyond the weekly Universe post. Specifics will be sent on Monday. Following are recently requested analyses:

ORGMF — The pattern since November’s high hasn’t been accumulative. But holding .44-.49 could allow accumulation to form. Back above .70 would target .90 and .98.

AERO — Volume is generally too low and therefore too sporadic to offer much confirmation, but the price pattern is forming a bullish “Cup & Handle” pattern that should start accelerating higher if 1.53-1.60 were recovered.

SLVP — The underlying metal is consolidating while miners appear to have extended higher. That might not end well for  the miners if the metal doesn’t launch more than a retest of recent highs. A pullback would target 6.41 while still being only a temporary correction.

VAPE — Bullish volume patterns accompanied the recent surge. So long as pullbacks were to hold .0047-.0049 as support, recovering .0077 again would next target .0126.

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Tuesday didn’t exploit the pattern’s ongoing vulnerability to plunging, but neither has the series of lower lows and lower highs been disrupted.

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s close under 1216.60 was isolated by gapping up Tuesday back above it. But only back to 1222.60 whose recovery is still needed to trigger the 1242.00 and 1248.00 targets.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday helped to isolate Monday’s dip as holding its test of 15.15 support so the outstanding gap above at 15.70 could be filled.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sliding sharply to test 165-00 at Tuesday’s open was not credible for this stage of the pattern. I noted during the pre-market Tour that proving it was an anomaly required only attacking unchanged. Unchanged was recovered by a surge well into positive territory, offering further confirmation that a test of 170-00 remains in-play.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
An early-morning bounce Tuesday was rejected by a deeper slide through the morning, further confirming that a retest of the decline’s original target and the gap back to its 28.80 low close remain in-play.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The pattern’s only bullish setup immediately available for Tuesday was to gap up and close positive, with an interim probe of fresh lows. In fact, Tuesday’s open did gap up and immediately reverse down to new lows. A recovery wasn’t indicated, but forming the setup over two sessions could still qualify.

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Feb 24, 2016

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: Wednesday’s most influential items are two Fed speakers. They follow another speaker overnight, and they’re staggered in the morning and afternoon.

Stanley Fischer Speaks
WED 8:30 PM ET

MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET

*Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
8:00 AM ET

PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET

New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

2-Yr FRN Note Auction
11:30 AM ET

5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET

*Rob Kaplan Speaks
1:15 PM ET

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s open exploited the pattern’s vulnerability to plunging by gapping down after having trended down overnight. Gaps are leaving “unfinished business above” outstanding, and inihbiting the decline from extending much first..

Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Falling Sunday night back under 1222.50 without recovering Monday is signaling the rally’s momentum has lapsed. Closing under 1216.50, too, would likely target 1195.00. Closing back above 1222.50 would resume the rally to 1942.00 and 1949.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Monday keeps alive potential for recovering to rtest last week’s high around 15.25.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Only a suspicious shallow dip accompanied stock futures soaring overnight. The weakness is suspicious because it almost qualifies as relative outperformance NOT during a filght-to quality.

Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight strength depesited Monday’s open more than $2 higher. It did not extend any higher intraday, which shouldn’t be productive anyway if a retst of the lows remains in-play.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
.No new strength Monday prevented the pattern from trending.At least another morning would be required.

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 23, 2016

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: Tuesday’s Consumer Confidence report is reliable for influencing price action. The post-open housing sector report could be influential if it contradicts the pre-open housing report’s implications, or confirms an earlier surprise.

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

S&P Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET

*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET

*Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
10:00 AM ET

State Street Investor Confidence Index
10:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET