Bigger Picture
Sunday night’s Globex chaRTroom link.
Brexit gained a higher profile after Friday’s close, and immediately began to roil the currency markets. And some sort of a ceasefire may be on Syria’s horizon. Meanwhile, mysteriously absent from media reports is any mention of the bullish WedEX still in-play…
CLICK HERE to monitor price action overnight.
The Universe, week of February 22, 2016…
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Last week I noted several observations of accumulation in the sector, if not of recent price turns. Not yet broad enough or of long enough duration to call a trend change. But enough near-term strength to reach the cusp between being either the end of a corrective bounce, or else the start of something bigger.
And so I also noted that the latter scenario — the start of something bigger — required something bigger and bigger to develop without delay. The alternative would be vulnerable to snapping back downward, hard.
One anecdote didn’t make the distance from my notes to being published. This was an observation that even PHOT had been showing accumulative signs. The infamous stock was too controversial to be exemplary of my thesis, so I excluded it.
And then it surged, into news Thursday of its OTCBB relisting. Its accumulative signs weren’t noise.
To many, PHOT‘s travails were a bullet that deeply wounded the cannabis sector. The concerns and caution flags raised by its SEC pursuit made lesser warnings elsewhere seem larger. A revival by PHOT would have no direct bearing on the sector’s future, but it could be a poetic end to a chapter in its past.
Meanwhile, the percentage of stocks above their 4-week moving averages improved further. While I can repeat last week’s observation, I must also repeat last week’s warning — that the improvement cannot yet afford to hesitate, unless it is only a temporary corrective bounce preparing to resolve down sharply.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for February 22, 2016 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 8 | 9.64% |
| trends* | # flat: | 20 | 24.10% |
| # down: | 55 | 66.27% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| AERO | 0.830 | 1.260 | flat |
| AGTK | 0.003 | 0.007 | flat |
| AMMJ | 0.070 | 0.160 | flat |
| ARNA | 0.950 | 1.650 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | flat |
| BLOZF | 0.087 | 0.163 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | flat |
| BTFL | 0.002 | 0.005 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| CANL | 0.053 | 0.290 | down |
| CANN | 0.350 | 0.550 | flat |
| CANV | 0.110 | 0.215 | down |
| CARA | 5.350 | 9.090 | down |
| CBDS | 0.070 | 0.600 | down |
| CBIS | 0.005 | 0.017 | down |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.150 | 0.330 | down |
| DEWM | 0.002 | 0.004 | flat |
| DIGP | 0.120 | 0.220 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.004 | 0.009 | flat |
| EDXC | 0.007 | 0.019 | down |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | down |
| ENDO | 0.005 | 0.009 | down |
| ENRT | 0.005 | 0.014 | down |
| ERBB | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | down |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| FITX | 0.004 | 0.006 | up |
| FULL | 2.050 | 2.520 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.117 | 0.205 | down |
| GRNH | 0.026 | 0.042 | flat |
| GWPH | 34.950 | 55.000 | down |
| HEMP | 0.010 | 0.040 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.110 | 0.180 | flat |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 12.000 | 22.250 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | up |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LXRP | 0.060 | 0.110 | down |
| MCIG | 0.023 | 0.040 | flat |
| MDBX | 0.006 | 0.051 | down |
| MDRM | 0.025 | 0.060 | up |
| MINE | 0.019 | 0.040 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | flat |
| MJNA | 0.028 | 0.044 | down |
| MNTR | 0.220 | 0.036 | down |
| MSRT | 0.830 | 1.410 | down |
| MYEC | 0.008 | 0.012 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | down |
| NMUS | 0.450 | 1.070 | flat |
| NTRR | 1.120 | 1.800 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.435 | 0.630 | down |
| OXIS | 0.470 | 2.650 | down |
| PHOT | 0.048 | 0.088 | up |
| PLPL | 0.026 | 0.069 | down |
| PMCB | 0.064 | 0.091 | down |
| PNTV | 0.002 | 0.005 | up |
| PZOO | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RMHB | 0.014 | 0.033 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.006 | 0.014 | up |
| SPRWF | 0.225 | 0.375 | up |
| SRNA | 0.052 | 0.087 | flat |
| STEV | 0.005 | 0.024 | down |
| TAUG | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| TRTC | 0.115 | 0.160 | up |
| TURV | 0.463 | 0.770 | flat |
| TWMJF | 1.800 | 2.400 | flat |
| UPOT | 0.010 | 0.050 | down |
| VAPE | 0.003 | 0.023 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.020 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | down |
| VPCO | 0.000 | 0.095 | down |
| WOGI | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 0.089 | 1.395 | down |
Saturday Review’s recording (for 2/20/16) …
This weekend’s review looked closely at the bullish WedEX signal currently in-play. It’s halfway through influencing Friday afternoon and Monday morning, with specific expectations for its resolution. We also reviewed the bigger picture context of the recent rally effort.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
SIG, HD, BLUE, AAPL, ECPG, MERC, RYCEY, WFC, ABTL, BMO, CACC, EQIX, FB, JBHT, BABA, TWTR, SBUX, TNA
02/20/2016 09:31:59 sm: good
02/20/2016 09:33:08 Mark Glezer: gm
02/20/2016 09:33:19 david b: good morning
02/20/2016 09:36:31 charlie: hi0
02/20/2016 09:46:01 MK: what about thursday (11) to friday (12) gap
02/20/2016 09:51:28 MK: IMO
02/20/2016 09:51:48 MK: 3 gaps in trending usually winds up not successfully gapping higher again without digestion
02/20/2016 09:52:05 Mark Glezer: 1940 area should be probed & rejected if the intent is to not to form a bottom around 1740?
02/20/2016 10:01:48 steve: can wedex invert or is that possibility behind us?
02/20/2016 10:03:00 MK: rod
02/20/2016 10:03:05 MK: how often have yous een
02/20/2016 10:03:06 MK: weak hands
02/20/2016 10:03:13 MK: breach a level
02/20/2016 10:03:18 MK: where strong hands take over
02/20/2016 10:03:28 MK: a la 666
02/20/2016 10:03:52 MK: good point
02/20/2016 10:05:07 Josey: SIG, HD
02/20/2016 10:06:32 MK: seriously SIG was a short when I brought it now
02/20/2016 10:06:35 MK: brought it up
02/20/2016 10:06:37 MK: not now
02/20/2016 10:07:35 MK: BLUE
02/20/2016 10:07:36 MK: AAPL
02/20/2016 10:07:40 MK: ECPG
02/20/2016 10:07:43 MK: MERC
02/20/2016 10:07:50 MK: RYCEY
02/20/2016 10:07:54 MK: WFC
02/20/2016 10:08:22 MK: (SHORT) ABTL BMO CACC EQIX FB JBHT NKE SLB
02/20/2016 10:11:36 MK: haha HD looks like the CYA trade ala DJIX
02/20/2016 10:11:55 MK: wow combined DJIA and DJX
02/20/2016 10:13:29 MK: yes
02/20/2016 10:17:58 MK: FBI/Company Shouldn’t have tried to reset the password
02/20/2016 10:18:03 MK: this would have been a non-event
02/20/2016 10:18:22 MK: http://www.pcworld.com/article/3035506/security/apple-says-terrorists-icloud-password-was-changed-remotely-while-iphone-was-in-governments-posessio.html
02/20/2016 10:20:36 Mark Glezer: BABA
02/20/2016 10:21:11 MK: I”m already long from sub 29
02/20/2016 10:21:13 MK: 20\
02/20/2016 10:21:41 MK: so looking for 25
02/20/2016 10:21:43 MK: thanks
02/20/2016 10:22:39 MK: yeah you covered it friday
02/20/2016 10:22:41 MK: no worries
02/20/2016 10:22:44 MK: i accidentally included it
02/20/2016 10:25:55 david b: KO,HD
02/20/2016 10:26:12 Mark Glezer: resuming the decline should target new lows?
02/20/2016 10:31:31 Casjf: TWTR – bottoming?
02/20/2016 10:31:49 MK: =)
02/20/2016 10:36:48 MK: BMO – seems super optimistic
02/20/2016 10:37:17 MK: get out at 55.75?
02/20/2016 10:37:33 MK: close above 54.55 ?
02/20/2016 10:38:18 MK: harumph
02/20/2016 10:39:40 Casjf: I’m surprised given the market…
02/20/2016 10:41:49 Mark Glezer: surprisingly it even got as high as it did – TWTR
02/20/2016 10:42:44 MK: if sloppy then that could be a bottom
02/20/2016 10:42:49 MK: ?
02/20/2016 10:43:54 MK: i’m just eyeing 140
02/20/2016 10:44:34 MK: man
02/20/2016 10:44:43 MK: i think general market is goin much higher
02/20/2016 10:44:46 MK: all these shorts
02/20/2016 10:44:55 MK: look like crap
02/20/2016 10:48:02 MK: ignore the last 2
02/20/2016 10:52:56 MK: man i’m going to be getting out of a lot of shorts on monday =)
02/20/2016 10:53:34 MK: good point
02/20/2016 10:53:38 MK: thanks for the insight
02/20/2016 10:53:50 MK: i appreciate it
02/20/2016 10:54:06 MK: oh
02/20/2016 10:54:08 MK: SBUX
02/20/2016 10:54:08 MK: sorry
02/20/2016 10:54:10 MK: last one
02/20/2016 10:54:12 MK: SBUX
02/20/2016 10:54:14 MK: yes
02/20/2016 10:55:09 MK: get off the pot
02/20/2016 10:55:10 MK: ok
02/20/2016 10:55:11 MK: thanks
02/20/2016 10:55:37 MK: i mean 58?
02/20/2016 10:59:20 Josey: Ty!
02/20/2016 10:59:21 Mark Glezer: thx much
02/20/2016 10:59:28 Casjf: thanks!
02/20/2016 10:59:49 charlie: TKS
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us at either link below by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review.
We’ll discuss the bigger picture, and then review any stock charts that you request.
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still being vulnerable to collapse while no new rally leg is likely, Friday traded flat-to-higher. Almost any immediate weakness would be likely to extend down sharply.
Gold Apr Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s rally had extended post-close to fulfill its 1240.00 objective. Reacting down from there overnight held the 1222.50 buy signal as support. Back under 1216.50 would signal momentum reversing down. Otherwise, there remains potential up to 1241.00 and 1248.00.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s narrow ranging prevented filling the gap outstanding above, which suggests that a downleg isn’t ready to begin.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing above Tuesday’s ~166-00 high Thursday extended Friday to 167-04 before dipping to 166-04. A second consecutive higher close Friday confirms the gap back up to 169-31 is in-play.
Crude Oil Apr Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s dip extended down from Thursday’s retest of Tuesday’s 31.15 prior high, still targeting a retest of the decline’s 26.40 target and the gap outstanding there, probably down to 25.63.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Friday and trending lower intraday to new lows under 1.80 prevented a durable rally from forming, and created potential to 1.75 or 1.55.