Bigger Picture
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The reaction down from last week’s 1.1385 high was extended coming out of the weekend down to 1.1133. The high formed an Island, which would be retested upon recovering 1.1270.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
The holiday weekend was exited by reacting back down to 1191.50 that had preceded last week’s blow-off to 1264.00. Closing back above 1222.50 would target the gap back to last Wednesday’s 1240.00 open.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having held 15.80 resistance at Friday’s close, the reaction extended down to 15.15 coming out of the weekend. Tuesday consolidated the drop but left no new signal.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still lacking a catalyst for flight-to-safety, breaking under 167-18 support quickly extended to test last week’s “lower prior highs” at 166-10 and lower to 165-02. Any lower would trigger a much deeper decline — which suggests that this support’s test will launch a recovery back to Thursday’s 170-00 gap up.
Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Firming out of the weekend and surging early Tuesday up to 31.53 reversed back down back to 28.80, and closing any lower would target a retest of 26.40 down to 25.63.
Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Although the reaction to Thursday’s EIA report had already filled the gap back to its prior week’s 1.97 low close, and Friday didn’t extend lower, coming out of the holiday did break lower to 1.88.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Feb 17, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Any reaction to Wednesday’s pre-open PPI is likely to be duplicated by the morning’s subsequent reports. But price action should react strongly to the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes, which will reveal how narrowly another rate hike was avoided.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Globex link to the chaRTroom
The Sunday night crew didn’t mind US markets being closed. They may even prefer it, especially after extending Friday’s rally significantly higher.
Recall that Friday’s gap up and test of Thursday’s “lower prior highs” down to 1834.00 had held, and the balance of the session had trended up relentlessly to test 1860.00. Sunday night’s open gapped up 5 points and extended to 1890.00 at Monday’s noon hour Globex close.
Are 1907.00 and 1920.00 next? Holiday trading isn’t often duplicated on its second day. But not rejecting this interim rally would make those higher highs likely.
chaRTroom will re-open to monitor Globex trading at 6:00pm ET here.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Feb 16, 2016
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s Fed speaker is not a wholly unknown quantity, but enough so to make the market more likely to react. The pre-ope Fed survey has no track record for influencing price action.
Empire State Mfg Survey
8:30 AM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
9:00 AM ET
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Treasury International Capital
4:00 PM ET
Globex link to the chaRTroom
Sunday night’s open gapped up 5 points to 1865.00 and extended 15 more to 1880.00. Click here to view Globex action which trades through 1:00pm ET Monday,