Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap up to fresh highs had not extended higher intraday. Friday’s gap down formed an Island-type pattern, which is not an Island, since it is land-locked. So, momentum may now reverse down without interruption.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s blow-off high didn’t extend its overnight reaction down Friday. Regardless, a pullback would require retesting Thursday’s opening print before a durable top could be considered.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Having held its 15.80 target Thursday despite probing above it intraday, Friday’s sideways action helps to confirm that a lot of buying pressure was satisfied. But its 15.65 pullback limit held as support to keep alive momentum for at least retesting Thursday’ intraday high.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Still trending up in blow-off mode Thursday, Friday’s rally was no catalyst for extending higher in any flight-to-safety. Instead it allowed for testing “lower prior highs” so that another bounce can test Wednesday’s gap up and neutralize its attraction above. (I wonder what could be the catalyst for that?)

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 26.40 target was fulfilled Thursday. There remains room for noise below it to 25.63, which could be met on a retest since Friday’s gap up may be trying to begin forming a bottom.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness enabled the negative reaction to fill the gap back down to the week-old low close. Holding its test Friday doesn’t help to prove a bottom is forming, which only a rally at this stage can do — or a recovery from fresh intraday lows.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Fulfilling the pattern’s minimum objective at Tuesday’s new high close relieved the pattern of any higher requirements. That didn’t qualify as signaling a reversal, but price did react down Wednesday, testing its 1.1200 pullback limit.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight weakness was eventually recovered Wednesday, but the 1203.00 target wasn’t met. Its delay does suggest it might be probed, but closing above it would still need a second consecutive higher close to confirm any higher objective in-play.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight weakness was recovered essentially to unchanged Wednesday, but still not probing a fresh high that the pattern suggests will develop before a durable downleg.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A test of the 165-08/165-12 pullback limit’s lower-end Wednesday resolved up. And up, and up. New highs were probed aggressively up to 167-03 as the rally remained entirely intact.

Crude Oil Mar Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The downleg targeting new lows is in its denial stage, as choppiness expands upon testing the prior low. A two-handle surge intraday was erased entirely, still likely to extend down.

Natural Gas Mar Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down under 2.07 Wednesday and extending to test 2.02 was the opposite of initial strength which would have signaled a rally. Thursday’s EIA report isn’t being greeted from a position of strength, but also not from weakness that might require a negative reaction or undermine a favorable reaction.