Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s dip tested the gap below down to 1.1547 that Wednesday’s rally had sliced through. Buying pressure should be impatient and help to prevent any further weakness.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Firming overnight to 1298.00 wasn’t extended intraday Thursday. More so, it was retraced into negative territory down to  1287.00. The 1283.00 buy signal wasn’t threatened, but likely will be if the pattern isn’t rallying into the weekend.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging Wednesday became choppier Thursday as early strength was reversed into negative territory. The early attraction to prior highs wasn’t overly optimistic, but rallying further is likely so long as early selling is avoided Friday.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-lower hovering just above 145-08 essentially held Wednesday’s lows. A fresh low can’t be discounted, but it must snap back up and rally strongly to avoid triggering a larger downleg.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-higher ranging Thursday tested 52.70, still having room down to 51.00 to maintain the rally. Othewsise, back under 50.15 would start to signal the trend reversing down.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow sideways ranging didn’t seem to exploit Thursday’s inside day, and its own mild pessimism. But any initial strength Friday would likely be credible for extending higher into the weekend.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s pullback holding 1.1485 and 1.1500 needed confirmation from immediately resuming the rally, which Wednesday’s rally provided, extending sharply higher to 1.1625, the highest level in months. Pullbacks should now hold 1.1580 to maintain the upside momentum.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping deeper overnight was reversed back up Wednesday to attack recent highs up to 1294.50. Extending the rally to fresh highs should not be delayed much longer as the 1319.50 target remains intact.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying Wednesday morning attacked prior highs to help confirm that Tuesday’s shallow dip had gained no traction for extending down.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Extending the decline into Wednesday’s open needed to hold 145-08 for even suggesting that a pullback may have completed. It was attacked to within 3 ticks, and now back above 146-04 would launch at least a corrective bounce. Closing first under 145-08 would signal a new downleg was already underway.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending the rally overnight to gap up Wednesday provided the immediate confirmation needed for Tuesday’s rally attacking 50.00. Which shouldn’t have been difficult since EIA was being greeted from a position of strength. Trending sharply higher intraday to attack 52.60 now allows upside momentum to remain intact above 51.00, with room for noise down to 50.15.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Wednesday’s flat ranging doesn’t greet Thursday’s EIA report from either a position of strength or a position of weakness, still needing to recover 3.15 to begin signaling that a bottom is forming.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s close back above 1.1485 and 1.1500 didn’t follow-through immediately, and instead gapped down Tuesday back under 1.1500 to test 1.1485. Quickly recovering 1.1500 was maintained if not also improved intraday, but can’t tolerate any further delay to rallying aggressively.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Dipping further overnight extended Monday’s post-open retracement of its gap up. The 1283.00 sell signal was being tested at the open, and only reacted back up intraday to maintain potential for resuming the rally targeting 1319.50. But remaining in negative territory through the close requires the recovery to become aggressive almost immediately to avoid triggering 1283.00.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh pullback lows overnight probed lower intraday Tuesday without either extending down or recovering. Resuming the rally should be obvious by Wednesday afternoon to avoid a deeper pullback.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s gap up to its 147-12/147-167 buy signal had held to reverse the session back down to fresh pullback lows, which extended lower overnight and Tuesday to 146-00. Almost any initial strength Wednesday would be credible for extending higher intraday, even if only to retest 147-12. No immediate strength would be vulnerable to extending the pullback into a steeper deeper decline.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Overnight strength had needed to extend higher aggressively Tuesday to compensate for Monday’s failure to confirm Friday’s close above the 47.00 buy signal. Attacking 50.00 Tuesday and trending up throughout the session qualifies as aggressive, but the recovery still cannot tolerate a pullback Wednesday.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday helped to confirm that Monday’s gap down had not gained traction. Closing above 4.15 is still needed to seal a bottom, at least to create a position of strength that offers confidence for absorbing further intraday dips.