Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Jan 9, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The continued government shutdown might not affect any of Wednesday’s econ calendar items. But the afternoon’s FOMC Minutes release should be influential to price action, especially coming in the midst of two Fed speakers. Also Wednesday, the Bank of Canada announces its interest rate policy.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
8:20 AM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
9:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET
*Rosengren Speaks
11:30 AM ET
10-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*FOMC Minutes
2:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Sunday above 1.1485 resistance and the 1.1500 buy signal extended higher Monday to its highest levels in 2 weeks at 1.1550. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s dip back under 1284.00 had recovered through the close, which Sunday night exploited by trending back up. But Friday’s pre-open probe above 1300.00 was never retested, despite gapping up Monday to pierce Thursday’s 1295.50 high. Back under 1283.00 would signal a deeper pullback underway, but the 1319.50 target otherwise remains intact.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Friday’s pre-open test of 15.95 had been retraced before Friday’s open, which held support intraday. An attempt to resume the rally Monday stopped short of Friday’s pre-open high before settling back into Friday’s range, still not reversing momentum down.
30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Closing under the 147-16 pullback limit needed to recover it Monday to resume the rally’s momentum. Its resistance held Sunday night’s bounce, which reacted back down Monday to test Friday’s 146-18 lows. Tuesday may be the last opportunity to resume the rally.
Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s open was greeted probing further above the 47.00 buy signal, still needing a second consecutive higher close to confirm a rally can get underway despite having stopped 20 cents short of even touching the 43.35-44.15 pullback limit. Ending the day back under Friday’s highs did not confirm, but any initial strength Tuesday would still be credible for extending higher intraday.
Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Sunday night didn’t extend down to fresh lows, which could be a last round of selling before at least trying to recover 4.15 where a bottom could begin forming.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Jan 8, 2019
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar isn’t very busy, and its highlight might not be announced due to the government shutdown. That’s the JOLTS report, which can be a catalyst for a reaction following an influential Employment Situation report.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Saturday Review’s recording (for 1/5/19) …That’s going to leave a mark.
The Christmas low had reacted up considerably before ranging sideways into year-end. And the new year’s first week threatened to start retracing the post-Christmas rally. Instead, the rally may have resumed.
What if it has resumed, and what if it hasn’t, actually? What levels and behaviors will tell us either way? And what is already predictable, or reliable, or likely as the market’s next step Monday?
These questions, and many more that were asked by attendees, are addressed during this week’s Saturday Review.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
WDFC, AAPL, GE, SYMC, UA, WDC, MDB, MSFT, FB
transcript
—————– (01/05/2019 09:31) —————–
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
Mark G: gm
Bill G: gm
David B: Good Morning
—————– (01/05/2019 09:35) —————–
jp: gm
ljr iPad: gm
—————– (01/05/2019 09:48) —————–
Mark G: v-bottom suggests that the decline may not be over?
—————– (01/05/2019 09:52) —————–
Mark G: what is the most likely outcome?
—————– (01/05/2019 09:58) —————–
David B: is a session long decline or rally session be viewed differently because this was on a friday?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:00) —————–
David B: was the market discounting thursday the unemployment report is part of the rally for friday?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:01) —————–
Mark G: what is the most likely outcome?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:02) —————–
David B: if the fed did not speak and it was just the job number we may not have rally?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:04) —————–
David B: yes
Mark G: if Fed signaled a policy change with respect to balance sheet, we may be heading up near term still/
—————– (01/05/2019 10:06) —————–
Mark G: longer term – up or down retracing all of Trump rally
—————– (01/05/2019 10:08) —————–
ljr iPad: stocks: WDFC big run up in 2018, earnings we’d
ljr iPad: Wednesday
—————– (01/05/2019 10:09) —————–
David B: Has the correlation with bonds over the last few days showing mony moving out and into stocks?
Mark G: k
David B: money
—————– (01/05/2019 10:12) —————–
ljr iPad: AAPL
—————– (01/05/2019 10:13) —————–
ljr iPad: buyable low?
David B: GE,SYMC
—————– (01/05/2019 10:18) —————–
David B: UA,WDC
—————– (01/05/2019 10:27) —————–
ljr iPad: for wdfc is there an upper target or objective?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:28) —————–
ljr iPad: thx
—————– (01/05/2019 10:33) —————–
David B: MSFT
ljr iPad: FB, MSFT
—————– (01/05/2019 10:35) —————–
ljr iPad: MDB
—————– (01/05/2019 10:44) —————–
David B: bears markets usually take months and possibly years to change. Wouldn’t one want to look at the odds that this is going to resolve back down? and if not does that mean we were never in a bear market?
David B: bear market
—————– (01/05/2019 10:46) —————–
ljr iPad: thx for today.
—————– (01/05/2019 10:47) —————–
David B: will we know that shortly or could take weeks?
Mark G: if the low 2317 is retested would the time matter – the longer it’s delayed the likelier to break lower?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:51) —————–
David B: how do you think earnings plays into the overall market. is the market expecting the worst with no growth?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:53) —————–
Bill G: If the mkt makes a new low shortly.\, more room for a larger rally?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:54) —————–
Mark G: that is different from retesting a Feb prior low – the longer it took the liklier the break lower became
David B: does gold have a correlation with stocks or is it just like bonds?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:57) —————–
Bill G: How much lower than the recent low can still be considered only a test of that low?
—————– (01/05/2019 10:59) —————–
David B: can any news events or things the market is concern about change a market on a dime from a bear market to bullish or the opposite. Like we ar seeing with the fed and china
David B: are
—————– (01/05/2019 11:02) —————–
Bill G: thanks
Mark G: valuation crowd is saying at 2350 earnings could be zero so we may not go down more unless earnings are negative
—————– (01/05/2019 11:07) —————–
Mark G: :)
David B: it seems like now they are buying the dips where before they were selling rallies?
—————– (01/05/2019 11:09) —————–
David B: yes so they are no accumulative?
David B: not
David B: ok
David B: Thanks
Mark G: thx much
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!