Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Reacting down Friday morning to 1.1410 retraced Thursday’s recovery, which was itself recovered Friday back up to 1.1485 where any higher close should confirm a new rally leg underway.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing 1300.00 overnight was reversed down Friday in reaction to the Employment Situation report to 1278.00, but recovered back above 1284.00 to keep alive the rally. Nevertheless, 1284.00 must continue holding as support to avoid a deeper reversal.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Fresh highs overnight up to 15.95 reversed back down Friday to 15.65 in reaction to the Employment Situation report. But Friday’s intraday range was essentially an inside day compared to Thursday, so momentum has not reversed down.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing a fresh high overnight up to 148-27 was reversed down sharply in reaction to Friday’s Employment Situation report. A Double Bottom formed at 146-19 which is “lower prior highs” from Wednesday’s confirmation of Tuesday’s breakout. Closing back above 147-08 and 147-16 would signal the knee-jerk reaction had been absorbed and momentum was reversing up.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The 43.35-44.15 pullback limit was ultimately attacked only to within 20 cents before greeting Friday’s delayed EIA report back in rally mode, retesting the 47.00 buy signal up to 49.25. Closing under 47.00 would increase the likelihood for testing the pullback limit. Closing above 47.00 would still allow the pullback limit’s test from a position of strength that is likely to recover.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The delayed EIA report had little effect on price, which ranged narrowly sideways after having briefly probed a fresh low overnight. Closing above 3.15 would start to reverse the trend back up, or at least create a position of strength to help absorb further dips. Meanwhile, interesting research here on the possible cold wave coming.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
An overnight dip to 1.1380 support was recovered overnight and extended higher Thursday to test Wednesday’s 1.1475 opening high. All attractions below are neutralized, so trending back down again anyway would be bearish.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s post-close dip from 1284.00 to 1280.50 was recovered overnight to trend up Thursday morning to fresh highs testing 1295.00, keeping alive momentum to the 1319.50 target.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still extending higher beyond Tuesday’s minimum required third higher close tested 15.80 Thursday, avoiding a sell signal on the same day as printing a new high.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s confirmed breakout extended higher overnight and then sharply higher intraday Thursday to 148-14, up +1-3/4 point on the day and easily fulfilling the minimum requirement for at least an eventual third higher close. Friday morning’s Employment Situation report is being greeted from a position of strength, which doesn’t preclude a knee-jerk reaction down, but makes it likely to recover.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still hovering around the 47.00 buy signal Thursday isn’t any more credible for breaking higher prior to a corrective dip first testing the 43.35-44.15 pullback limit. EIA is delayed until Friday this week for the holiday, and it is not being greeted from either a position of weakness or strength.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s fresh low down to 2.88 was still testing prior intraday lows to avoid greeting Friday’s delayed EIA report from a position strength. But closing above 3.15 would help to seal a bottom, or at least to start forming a bottom that launches another upleg.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still overlapping the 1.1500 buy signal into year-end has resolved by gapping down into the new year. No sell signal is active, and the buy signal remains unchanged.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs overnight made another isolation of the 1284.00 target unlikely, which also makes the pattern likely to extend to its next higher target at 1319.50 so long as 1284.00‘s recovery now holds — which was being tested as support at the close.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-lower ranging overnight doesn’t require resolving up, but there is no active sell signal. Resolving up anyway would confirm the rally’s momentum remains intact.

30-year Treasury Mar Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying into the new year has confirmed Monday’s breakout from a multi-session range, now requiring at least an eventual third higher close before a reversal down can be credible.

Crude Oil Feb Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Another night of weakness narrowly avoided probing into the preferable 43.35-44.15 pullback limit before rallying through the 47.00 buy signal. Wednesday morning did probe it by almost 80 cents, at least proving the pattern’s pent-up buying pressure. Actually triggering the buy signal would still require a second consecutive higher close to confirm, and to avoid testing the preferable 43.35-44.15 pullback limit.

Natural Gas Feb Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
An overnight retest of Monday’s fresh pullback low to another low at 2.90 has stretched the rubber band to the point of all but requiring a snap back up to avoid extending down much deeper.