Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The initial FOMC reaction momentarily pierced Tuesday’s low, but didn’t trend down — and didn’t rally, either. The corrective drop remains intact,

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Closing above the 1070.00 buy signal soon reacted down sharply on Wednesday’s FOMC statement to attack 12060.00. Its reaction recovered to probe back above 1070.00. But the signal still requires a second consecutive higher close to confirm.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging Wednesday morning to probe 14.10 resistance didn’t react down much after the FOMC statement, which was largely recovered through the close. The gap back down to Tuesday’s close and a new low close remain outstanding.

30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A momentary knee-jerk reaction down under 153-30 was reversed back up into positive territory, still having potential for a corrective bounce to 155-29 about a half-point higher.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s test of 38.88 was rejected back under 36.70 Wednesday, and even under 36.25, to confirm a retest of the 35.45 low remains likely.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing under the 1.80 target overnight tried reacting up Wednesday. But the bounce reversed down to put into play 1.72-1.75.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s failed intraday probe above last Wednesday’s high had proved that sponsorship was lacking to resume the rally. Tuesday’s dip attacking last Thursday’s 1.0920 low suggests its correction down to 1.0750-1.0785 is underway.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Last week’s dip had stopped optimistically short of testing the 1057.20-1061.50 pullback limit, preventing a lower buy signal than the 1077.70 resistance that limited its reaction. Tuesday’s deeper dip more thoroughly tested the pullback limit, which now allows a close above 1070.00 to launch a new upleg.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing prematurely to as high as 14.10 would still be required to fail and produce a third lower close. Tuesday only ranged narrowly, not even bouncing, but also not producing a third lower close.

30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s reaction down that filled the gap back to last Thursday’s close was extended sharply lower Tuesday morning to 153-30. That creates a lot of room to absorb a bounce or knee-jerk reaction up to 156-29 without resuming the rally.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
An early probe above 36.70 resistance was ultimately recovered Tuesday morning and extended to 38.88. A second consecutive higher close Wednesday would signal that a much bigger bounce was underway. Back under 36.70 would trigger a retest of Sunday night’s low.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows Tuesday fulfilled the structural requirement for at least a third lower close. But potential to 1.80 was missed narrowly, suggesting that a bounce would be premature.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s reaction down from filling the gap back to last Wednesday’s 1.1020 high still had potential to probe Wednesday’s 1.1045 before reversing down. Monday’s probe above 1.1045 wasn’t rejected by the afternoon, but now any weakness would be more credible for reversing down.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s reaction up from its shallow morning dip had stopped short of actually recovering 1077.70 to reverse momentum up. Monday reacted back down to attack Friday’s 1065.50 area low, trending down on an inside day, so closing above 1077.70 would still launch a rally.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Trending down Sunday night to fresh lows wasn’t recovered intraday, confirming Friday’s breakout, and now requiring at least an eventual third lower close potentially targeting 13.55.

30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Monday’s reaction back down under 157-04 and 156-15 extended down to fill the gap back to Thursday’s 155-08 gap. No unfinished business above is outstanding, so closing under 154-30 can launch a new downleg.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing fresh lows Sunday night was already bouncing into Monday’s open, which extended higher intraday back into positive territory. A second consecutive lower close confirming Friday’s breakout was avoided. But closing above 36.70 is needed to launch a rally leg.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s confirmation of Thursday’s breakout had then required at least an eventual third lower close. Trending down already Sunday night and extending intraday Monday fulfilled the objective. But the pattern is not likely to reverse up durably immediately, not without first touching 1.80.