Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 21, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Chicago Fed survey is high-profile, but has no track record for influencing price action.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Livestox Recording Dec 17, 2015
Thursday’s Livestox recording is below, and the stocks we addressed in order follow that, including cannabis stocks and requests made to the blog. The last three are the current January Effect candidates Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread.
SPX
USO
GLD
SLV
AMMJ
CARA
INSY
SPRWF
XXII
MCIG
SUNE
UPS
EYES
DDD
SRNA
GPRO
TWTR
FEYE
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s blip-down to 1.0915 had reacted up sharply intraday, but that didn’t prevent Thursday’s open from gapping down to fresh lows and attacking 1.0825, targeting 1.0750-1.0785.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Suspicion about Wednesday’s close above the 1070.00 buy signal proved out overnight by erasing the intraday gain and opening Thursday back at 1057.20-1061.50 support. This latest test inflected down instead of up, probing fresh lows under 1047.00. The next lower support is 1038.50-1041.00, but closing back above 1061.50 would launch a new rally leg.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s bounce above 14.10 attacked 14.35, but that didn’t neutralize its requirement for a third lower close. Thursday’s gap down to retest 13.70 support provided the lower close, and filled the outstanding gap back to Tuesday’s close. But a close above 14.10 is needed to signal momentum reversing up.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s bounce extended higher overnight to fulfill the 155-29 corrective bounce target. It wasn’t retested intraday, which hovered, suggesting that 155-29 would be retested before a downleg would be credible.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Sunday night’s 34.50 low was attacked to within 10-15 cents Thursday, early enough that delaying its test suggests “ineffectual optimism.” Rather than to form a bottom from retesting the low, delaying its retest much longer could extend the downleg.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The premature bounce to 1.85 resistance proved it was “ineffectual optimism” ahead of Thurdsay’s EIA report, which triggered a reversal down to test 1.77, still targeting 1.71 and possibly 1.67.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Dec 18, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s econ reports have little track record of influencing price action. Atlanta Fed is getting there. But this being expiration — quarterly quadruple witch, no less — is one big wild card both for the open, and for reaction to the noon hour’s Fed speaker.
*Quadruple Witching
PMI Services Flash
9:45 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET
*Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
12:30 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Livestox – with January Effect candidates!
Thursday’s Livestox will review recently requested stock charts and other interesting situations, along with broader markets. We’ll also review the charts of several January Effect candidates to understand what price action would help to confirm their tax loss selling pressures may be diminishing.
Join me at 12:30 ET by clicking here. Add your stock chart analysis requests to this blog post.