Bigger Picture
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s dip still has room down to 1.0770 as a normal correction of Thursday’s surge, without reversing the trend down.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gold’s gap up from 1062.00 Friday was retested from 1071.00 after the payrolls report, but it was recovered and extended to test 1083.00. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm the trend has reversed up.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday above the 14.10 buy signal extended sharply higher intraday to test 14.60. A second consecutive higher close Monday would confirm a new rally leg is underway.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s initial weakness stopped 4 ticks short of fully utilizing the room for extending Thursday’s plunge down to 151-08. Its reaction to payrolls reversed up sharply to test 154-00. That was a lot fast than anticipated, so a corrective dip to 152-18 wouldn’t be surprising before recovering 154-14 on the way to 156-12.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Official news from OPEC triggered a gap down that spent Friday ranging choppily around Wednesday’s lows. Holding the test and closing above Thursday’s 41.75 high would now launch a new rally leg.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Narrow sideways ranging Friday followed Thursday’s EIA reaction which wasn’t greeted from a position of strength.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 7, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s calendar isn’t really busy or influential, except for the late-morning Fed speaker who has a reputation for talking up the market.
Gallup US Consumer Spending Measure
8:30 AM ET
Labor Market Conditions Index
10:00 AM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
11:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Livestox Recording Dec 3, 2015
Thursday’s Livestox recording is below, and the stocks we addressed in order follow that. Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread.
INSY — Reacting to a negative article, after having tested 34 resistance. Potential to resume the rally and extend to its 37 objective, so long as 30.40 holds as support.
SPX — Was on-track for resuming the rally to new highs when California’s incidents were reported. That has shaken the market, and it is searching for a lower level to try launching a new rally leg.
AMMJ — Continues to be my top pick in the Cannabis sector, as it is still forming the handle of a Cup & Handle pattern. Pullbacks must hold .12 to maintain the pattern.
XXII — Needs to recover .45 soon to avoid launching a new downleg.
LXRP — Potentially forming a Double Top, the recovery can’t afford much more of a pullback, if any, before resuming its rally.
CARA — Fresh recovery highs are likely so long as 13 holds as support. But preferable entry is on that test or its recovery.
GWPH — Would only buy strength that is high-volume, and then not waste time getting long. Otherwise, still looking for a fresh low.
SUNE — By target met at lows, vulnerable to tax loss selling pressures producing a momentary fresh low.
AMBA — Not greeting earnings news from a position of strength.
Daily Spot… Big moves, and no slowing down.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Recent tests of prior lows and Wednesday’s bullish pivot reversal created very fertile ground for Thursday’s ECB monetary moves. Recovering 1.0650 on the way to 1.0945 may be a one-day wonder, but a pullback has room to 1.0750 without reversing the trend back down.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s reaction to the ECB statement was relatively muted for being at its trend lows but having neutralized all attractions below. So the test of 1061.50 reversed back down to 1053.00. The afternoon did recover to end the day retesting 1061.50, more credibly, but still needing follow-through Thursday.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The reaction to Thursday’s ECB events surged to 14.10 resistance, whose recovery would trigger a buy signal needing only a second consecutive higher close to confirm a new rally leg underway. Its intraday reaction down was recovered entirely, so there’s little excuse to delay rallying Friday.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s close actually produced a higher close, barely confirming the prior session’s breakout. That’s dubious, at best, considering Thursday’s 4-1/4 point plunge. Support is at 151-08 and not likely to be reversed up immediately.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s breakout was retraced Thursday to probe back above the basing pattern’s 41.35, and not confirmed. That is the second step to forming a bottom, the next step now being to extend back up aggressively through the basing pattern. Any shallower strength, or simply weakening, would not be bullish.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s EIA report was not greeted from a position of strength. But the morning’s fresh low at 2.13 was at least retraced back into Wednesday’s range instead of confirming its breakout.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Dec 4, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s pre-open Employment Situation report is often released in a vacuum. But this month’s release is followed by a Fed speaker in the morning, and another just before the close — the latter having a reputation for talking up the market. Meanwhile, OPEC is scheduled to meet, so Oil should be jumpy.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
*Patrick Harker Speaks
10:15 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
*James Bullard Speaks
3:45 PM ET
Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks
4:10 PM ET