Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s gap up was retraced Wednesday as the recent lows were probed intraday. But once again, they held their test instead of breaking lower. Closing back above 1.0600 would be the minimum requirement to signal a bottom has formed.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Last Friday’s 1054.50 gap down had required a retest from above, and it was filled Wednesday. The 1049.00 low was tested, too. Closing back above 1054.50 would have sealed a bottom, but it was still being overlapped. There is on lower objective, so any initial rally Thursday would be likely to extend higher intraday.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Although there was no unfinished business below, Wednesday probed under prior lows. Closing back above the original 13.97 gap down was all but required to prevent a new downelg from launching.

30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s 2-point surge wasn’t extended higher Wednesday, which fails to confirm it as a breakout. A fresh ihgh up to 156-12 is likely, regardless of its resolution.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Long having passed the upside potential from the recent basing, even the most bullish pattern required probing fresh lows. Wednesday’s mixture of headlines triggered that probe, so that avoiding a second consecutive lower close Thursday would fail to confirm a breakout.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Fresh lows Wednesday constitute a breakout from a multi-session consecutive range, and confirmation from a second consecutive lower close would require there eventually to be a third.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Several consecutive sessions of probing prior lows without breaking lower were possibly rejected by Tuesday’s gap up into the range that trended higher intraday. Closing Wednesday above 1.0650 would signal a rally leg underway.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday initially extended the corrective bounce to 1074.00 from Friday’s gap down, but it was retraced to close back in negative territory under 1065.00 “higher prior lows.” Now that they’ve been tested as resistance, Friday’s 1054.50 gap under all prior lows can be filled to form a durable bottom.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday to probe above 14.20 was retraced to fluctuate around unchanged, despite there being no outstanding “unfinished business below” attracting price down.

30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
One week of consolidating recent gains without buyers gaining any traction was nevertheless extended sharply higher by 2 points Tuesday, surging to the lower-end of 155-29/156-12 resistance. It should be tested fully so long as 155-00 now holds pullbacks as support..

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Already having waited too long for the recent basing pattern to launch a rally, Tuesday morning’s dip back toward the range’s 41.00 low was unable to attract sponsorship for probing lower. And a fresh low has become required prior to a credible rally.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s fresh lows were recovered back into the recent 2.20-2.25 range, still not requiring any lower close before a credible recovery could begin.