Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Trading flat-to-lower Monday wasn’t really lower, and certainly didn’t extend down. Any initial strength Tuesday would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s break under its Descending Triangle had not extended down intraday, and it was retraced Monday. Friday’s opening gap under all prior lows still requires being filled, but now the origin of that retest suggests that a bottom will form from it.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s narrow ranging reflected its prior week’s gap down having been filled already to neutralize its attraction below. Perhaps it also reflects that the any delay to recovering is from waiting for Gold to form a bottom.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Flat-to-flatter ranging ranged narrowly Monday, too high to stretch the rubber band above 156-00 for snapping back down, and seemingly not even contemplating dipping through the 154-10 sell signal.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Resuming or extending the rally could be dismissed Friday for the thinner participation, but there isn’t much excuse for the basing pattern not yet to have broken higher.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s gap down wasn’t rejected Monday as price ranged narrowly around it intraday.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Friday to test Wednesday’s low was retraced almost entirely intraday. The ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs remains intact, but recovering the last relative high above 1.0650 would allow a bottom to begin forming.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
It didn’t take long after forming a Descending Triangle for it to break sharply lower, gapping down Friday to attack 1051.50. The 1054.50 opening gap will need to be retested from above before a credible rally can begin.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Retesting Monday’s opening gap down was required before a rally would be credible. Friday’s open filled it and firmed for the balance of the session.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Probing higher overnight stopped short of the 156-00 resistance where a reaction down could launch a new downleg. But a shallower gap up still reversed into negative territory. Back under 154-10 would signal momentum already reversing down.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Perhaps the more lightly-attended post-holiday pre-weekend session can be dismissed for not already launching a rally. But that won’t be allowed much past Monday’s open, not if the two-week long ranging is actually a base.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s dip to fresh lows was the second-consecutive lower close, confirming Thursday’s breakout from a multi-session range. At least an eventual third lower close is now required before any rally can be considered credible.