Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up shallowly Thursday didn’t extend higher intraday as it remained within Wednesday’s range. At least a momentary probe under Wednesday’s low would be optimal to forming a bottom, but not necessary.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s narrow ranging around the 1106.50 objective met Wednesday didn’t extend the decline, or reject it. But now early strength Friday would be credible for extending higher intraday, or else new lows become likely.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing lower lows Thursday remained under pressure throughout the session. An immediately rally leg would not be credible for extending without first forming a basing pattern.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows Thursday fulfilled the minimum 153-25 objective. But the decline’s momentum remains intact so long as bounces don’t recover above ‘higher prior lows” at 154-10/154-14.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Probing under 46.00 Thursday didn’t accelerate down, which significantly undermines whether the critical support is actually breaking lower. Wednesday’s “ineffectual optimism” hovering just above 46.00 suggested a valid break would be aggressive. Further delaying lower lows would make another bounce likely targeting 49.15.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up to 2.31 extended intraday to test 2.37 whose recovery would signal a much more significant rally leg finally underway. Closing back under 2.31 would target at least one more fresh low.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Wednesday filled the outstanding gap from last Thursday’s close, and probed its 1.0905 low down to 1.0850. A bottom may now begin forming, but the optimal setup of instantly  rejecting the fresh low must now wait until Thursday’s close or Friday’s open. Then a valid recovery should reverse up abruptly and aggressively.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday night’s reaction stopped $4 short of its 1226.50 bounce limit before resolving back down into Wednesday’s open. The decline’s next lower target at 1106.50 was tested. A bounce could test 1118.50 before signaling momentum reversing up.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s lower lows testing 15.10 fulfilled the minimum third lower close created by the two prior sessions’ consecutive lower closes. Closing Thursday back above a prior relative low like  would be credible for reversing momentum up.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh lows down to 154-11 continued narrowing the range back down to the 153-25 area objective.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Reacting down to Wednesday’s EIA report attacked the 46.00 pullback limit that would keep alive potential for the corrective bounce to test 49.15 before ending.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming into Wednesday’s open held 2.31  resistance and reacted down to fill the gap back to Tuesday’s 2.25 close. A knee-jerk reaction above 2.31 on Thursday’s EIA report would be credible for extending higher.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The corrective bounce’s retracement extended down Tuesday to test Thursday’s 1.0960 gap up from the low close. Probing a fresh low Wednesday under 1.0903 and closing positive on the day would be the optimal bottoming pattern at this stage.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down and trending lower intraday probed the next objective at 1118.00 down to 1114.00. Bouncing immediately back above 1126.50 could produce a corrective bounce to 1146.00. Otherwise, extending any deeper would target 1106.50 and 1094.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Tuesday to Monday’s lows didn’t prevent extending down to fresh lows intraday. Barely qualifying as a second consecutive lower close to confirm Monday’s breakout, now at least a third lower close is likely unless Monday’s 15.40 close were recovered immediately

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The ongoing decline extended to its lowest levels Tuesday. Near-term support is 154-16, and any lower would next target 153-22. Closing back above 155-14 would start to signal momentum reversing back up.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Multi-session narrow hovering around the 46.00 bounce limit has resolved before reversing back down. Tuesday’s test of 48.20 is likely also to visit 49.15. I still consider this only a corrective bounce, but any higher would be vulnerable to extending much higher regardless of its label.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s narrow ranging didn’t exploit Monday’s “ineffectual pessimism,” which still needs to recover 2.31 and 2.37 to signal momentum reversing up.