Bigger Picture
Saturday Review’s recording (for 10/31/15) …
Another objective met by the rally. Is it only a correction of August’s plunge, intending to resume the bear market? Would probing new highs change that scenario? What would put into play new highs? These questions were addressed, and more, including observations and questions among attendees.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
BIDU, BABA, AAPL, DIS, GG, MHG, FB, SCTY, BLK, GLPI, VRX, CBI, DVA, X, UA, PANW, ABTL
10/31/2015 09:31:22 Steve: gm
10/31/2015 09:31:24 Josey: All good
10/31/2015 09:31:25 Rod David: Testing?
10/31/2015 09:31:27 SM: good
10/31/2015 09:31:32 David B: Good Morning
10/31/2015 09:32:56 Mark Glezer: gm
10/31/2015 09:37:47 SM: Why is 2094 NOT a Globex Trend Extreme (which requires retest)?
10/31/2015 09:39:33 Mark Glezer: retracement of FOMC within a week is a requirement this time?
10/31/2015 09:56:18 Mark Glezer: lower prior high u mentioned under 2050 & prior low indicating the end of the corrective leg around 2010?
10/31/2015 09:56:46 MK: there was a super interesting comment from someone
10/31/2015 09:56:55 MK: regarding a year end ramp
10/31/2015 09:57:01 MK: similar to 1972
10/31/2015 09:57:30 MK: when people rallied behind the “Nifty Fify” big cap stocks that were “One Decision” = buy em and forget em
10/31/2015 09:57:56 MK: and everything fell apart
10/31/2015 09:58:32 MK: but he’s saying hes not 100% on a straight up ramp, but a prolonged rally as the “paid-to-play” are worried about Year end positioning
10/31/2015 09:58:55 MK: IE a client asking “why don’t you own MCD, NKE, MSFT, AMZN, GOOG”
10/31/2015 09:59:05 MK: so they are worried
10/31/2015 09:59:14 MK: and he thinks the only thing stopping the market doing this
10/31/2015 09:59:36 MK: is a legitimate news event that the robots and the “paid to pay” people can acnowledge as major
10/31/2015 10:00:37 MK: IMO. I think that the first couple weeks of NOV will let us know as most funds fiscal were end of Oct so either that theory has played out, or it will continue to prodive a bid into year end
10/31/2015 10:00:54 Mark Glezer: spoke to my friend, portfolio manager at a hedge fund on Wed. He is expecting a huge move down to happen soon but not necessarily this week, likely the next one
10/31/2015 10:01:56 MK: Mark, the positioning and bids i see in SKEW indicate there are large players that coincide with your friends theory
10/31/2015 10:02:17 Mark Glezer: :)
10/31/2015 10:03:22 ljr: stocks: bidi, baba, fb, scty, vrx ( no positions , looking for short or long entries except vrx just watching that show)
10/31/2015 10:03:34 ljr: sorry bidu
10/31/2015 10:04:15 David B: and options on 11/20
10/31/2015 10:04:48 David B: yes
10/31/2015 10:06:02 David B: AAPL,DIS
10/31/2015 10:06:37 MK: GG
10/31/2015 10:07:41 MK: MHG
10/31/2015 10:08:23 MK: BLK
10/31/2015 10:09:01 MK: GLPI
10/31/2015 10:09:10 MK: CBI
10/31/2015 10:09:29 MK: DVA
10/31/2015 10:09:35 MK: PANW
10/31/2015 10:09:52 MK: ABTL (SHORT)
10/31/2015 10:16:50 David B: dis earnings this week. is it not going in on strength?
10/31/2015 10:19:43 MK: that was earnings
10/31/2015 10:19:47 MK: for Goldcorp
10/31/2015 10:19:56 MK: they did a weird restructuring of an asset
10/31/2015 10:20:02 MK: that had no real negative
10/31/2015 10:20:09 MK: effect other than accounting
10/31/2015 10:20:47 ljr: will watch recording for stocks. thx
10/31/2015 10:22:46 MK: sweet call btw
10/31/2015 10:22:50 MK: got out a bunch at 13.75
10/31/2015 10:24:12 MK: any higher targets?
10/31/2015 10:24:19 MK: or shoudl i just call it a good trade
10/31/2015 10:25:16 MK: meh
10/31/2015 10:25:22 MK: not really good enough
10/31/2015 10:25:25 MK: i pare somre more off
10/31/2015 10:31:29 MK: yes
10/31/2015 10:31:39 MK: ok
10/31/2015 10:36:42 MK: I just bougth at 44.75
10/31/2015 10:37:15 MK: is extending higher
10/31/2015 10:39:50 David B: X,UA
10/31/2015 10:46:39 David B: i think a reaction
10/31/2015 10:48:34 Mark Glezer: anything interesting among major indexes?
10/31/2015 10:50:43 David B: UA earnings was on 10/22
10/31/2015 10:50:52 David B: can you go back for a minute
10/31/2015 10:51:12 MK: i’m short from 22
10/31/2015 10:52:48 Mark Glezer: k thx
10/31/2015 10:53:19 David B: no
10/31/2015 10:54:14 Mark Glezer: any specific down target on UA?
10/31/2015 10:54:31 Mark Glezer: k
10/31/2015 10:54:57 MK: have a good weekend
10/31/2015 10:55:00 Mark Glezer: thx much
10/31/2015 10:55:07 David B: thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us at either link below by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review.
We’ll discuss the bigger picture, and then review any stock charts that you request.
Daily Spot… Pre-weekend jockeying.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The reaction to Wednesday’s plunge extended higher Friday to attack 1.1080, which is the maximum bounce limit. The balance of the session trended back down, presumably to fulfill the required retest of Wednesday’s low.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s probe under 1150.00 support extended deeper into Friday’s open to eventually test the next lower support at 1138.50. Closing back above 1150.00 would now signal the decline had ended.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s breakout under the multi-session range wasn’t confirmed by a second consecutive lower close Friday. That’s not a buy signal, but back above 15.85 would start to signal momentum reversing back up.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A second consecutive lower close Friday would have confirmed Thursday’s plunge had reversed the trend down. But the bounce didn’t recover what is now resistance at 156-18.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s retest of Thursday’s probe above 46.00 up to 46.75 had held intraday, keeping the bounce’s momentum vulnerable to being reversed as the decline resumes. Post-close action did probe higher, but any early selling pressure Monday would be credible for resuming the decline.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s close above 2.31 fulfilled the minimum requirement to suggest momentum may be reversing up. Extending above 2.37 Friday is still needed to confirm.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 2, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Three high-profile reports start the week, but only ISM has a reliable track record of influencing price action.
PMI Manufacturing Index
9:45 AM ET
*ISM Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Construction Spending
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Livestox Recording Oct 29, 2015
Thursday’s Livestox recording is below, and the stocks we addressed in order follow that. Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread.
SPX
TWTR — still testing 28 pullback limit, room to 27, above 31.40 = 34
INSY — recent timely pick at 21.25, now probing its 27.35 resistamce
CARA — bounce potential remains intact at 17.75
GPRO — will monitor a close above 28 that would suggest bottoming
TSLA — pattern remains bearish
AAPL — 122 area should be peak of corrective bounce
TWMJF, SPRWF, OGRMF — 3-rd-day surges holding
CANV — recent pick that has been firming slowly
GWPH — 74.85 targeted for potential bottoming
FEYE — request, nothing bullish yet
ELY — request, attracting longer-term
FOLD — request
USO –Temporary bounce on the way back to prior lows
GLD — Potential support at 109.95 being tested
