Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s plunge from its 1.1100 bounce limit had dropped deeply to fulfill the minimum outstanding requirement. Gaping up Thursday and ranging exclusively in positive territory suggests as much, although a retest of Wednesday’s low would be needed to begin forming a bottom.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction had become likely to extend to at least test 1150.00, which was  done Thursday down to 1146.00. Closing back above 115.00 would signal the decline had ended.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s FOMC reaction that plunged back down to 15.85 support extended down Thursday. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm momentum had reversed down. Back above 15.85 would again target fresh highs.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Excessive optimism at Wednesday’s low was repeated at Thursday’s open, before plunging to the lowest levels in two weeks. A second consecutive lower close Friday would confirm a new downleg is underway.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh bounce highs Thursday probed above 46.00 but did not trend up, which could have produced a second consecutive higher close that signals a bigger corrective bounce underway. Back under 45.00 would likely resume the decline.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The decline’s hesitation even held through Thursday’s EIA report. Through the report, but not necessarily through the day. A late dive probed fresh intraday lows at 2.25 before closing flat with Wednesday’s low. Closing back above 2.31 would start to signal the decline had ended.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Wednesday probed above Tuesday’s high to more fully utilize the room for a bounce up to 1.1100. Having fully utilized it, I noted during the morning Tour that a reaction down had become likely and likely at least to fulfill the minimum third lower close in-play. The FOMC reaction actually plunged to new lows at 1.0933.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping up Wednesday through the 1170.00 buy signal extended through 1173.50 and also above 1180.00. The reaction before FOMC had attacked 1173.50. The reaction after plunged down to 1162.00, leaving no new signal.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Basing around 15.85 lifted off overnight  to trend up Wednesday and test 16.35. But the FOMC reaction erased it all back down to 15.85.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s retest of the bounce limit of last Monday’s 158-10 / 158-24 highs produced another reaction down Wednesday to 157-08. Firming in reaction to FOMC held above 157-02 to delay extending the decline.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s gap down had already indicated wider realization of the downtrend we’ve been tracking. But Wednesday’s surge developed prematurely to the likelier bounce origin that wasn’t yet reached. The bounce was nonetheless productive, testing 46.00. Back under 44.05-44.25 would signal the bounce had ended and that momentum was reversing down to at least 41.50-42.20.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
More ranging around 2.05-2.08 Wednesday continued forming a base that can launch a recovery leg if triggered back above 2.25.