Bigger Picture
The Universe, week of Oct 26, 2015…
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Interesting week. I had highlighted in the prior Universe issue that recent firming among Canadian issues was credible for extending higher. And they did, a lot, without delay. So I posted to the blog that extending higher the following morning would form “third-day charm” setups, which aren’t so charming. Each in my universe (OGRMF, SPRWF, TWMJF) reversed down sharply from the next day’s fresh highs. And each closed at or testing its resistance in the Universe table.
The setup identifies rally that have gotten so carried away so quickly that they must be sponsored by the most speculative of speculators. Seeing many such setups during March and April 2014 contributed to may sector-top call.
This instance can resolve differently. Where 1-1/2 years ago the sector had been rallying for several months, this is only a small part of the sector, and coming off of lows. The near-term difficulty is a constant, and might not be overcome by all issues after closer scrutiny. But a third-day high is a landmark whose recovery would be bullish.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for October 26, 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 9 | 9.00% |
| trends* | # flat: | 16 | 16.00% |
| # down: | 75 | 75.00% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| AERO | 1.000 | 1.950 | down |
| AGTK | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.070 | 0.150 | down |
| ARNA | 2.200 | 2.900 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.130 | 0.240 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | down |
| BTFL | 0.071 | 0.232 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.011 | down |
| CANL | 0.440 | 0.740 | down |
| CANN | 0.600 | 1.330 | flat |
| CANV | 0.570 | 0.860 | down |
| CARA | 14.250 | 18.870 | down |
| CBDS | 0.510 | 1.850 | down |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.020 | 0.041 | flat |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.300 | 0.590 | down |
| DEWM | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| DIGP | 0.170 | 0.400 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.005 | 0.013 | down |
| EDXC | 0.007 | 0.019 | down |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | down |
| ENDO | 0.006 | 0.018 | down |
| ENRT | 0.012 | 0.026 | down |
| ERBB | 0.002 | 0.004 | flat |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.004 | 0.078 | up |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 3.130 | 3.390 | up |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.270 | 0.460 | up |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | flat |
| GRNH | 0.023 | 0.067 | down |
| GWPH | 71.600 | 86.400 | down |
| HEMP | 0.050 | 0.107 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.100 | 0.180 | down |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 21.250 | 27.350 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LATF | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| LXRP | 0.140 | 0.205 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.017 | 0.030 | down |
| MDBX | 0.062 | 0.150 | flat |
| MDCN | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MDRM | 0.008 | 0.025 | down |
| MINE | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MJNA | 0.020 | 0.035 | down |
| MNTR | 0.310 | 0.620 | down |
| MSRT | 1.410 | 1.880 | flat |
| MYEC | 0.014 | 0.021 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | down |
| NDEV | 0.016 | 0.053 | down |
| NMUS | 0.218 | 1.215 | down |
| NRTI | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| NTRR | 0.022 | 0.046 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.280 | 0.389 | up |
| OSLH | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| OXIS | 0.009 | 0.019 | down |
| PHOT | 0.010 | 0.030 | down |
| PLPL | 0.053 | 0.121 | down |
| PMCB | 0.095 | 0.140 | flat |
| PNTV | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| PZOO | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| QEDN | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.005 | 0.012 | down |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.082 | 0.165 | up |
| SRNA | 0.100 | 0.185 | flat |
| STEV | 0.038 | 0.055 | down |
| TAUG | 0.003 | 0.005 | down |
| THCZ | 0.075 | 0.013 | flat |
| TRTC | 0.088 | 0.129 | down |
| TURV | 0.463 | 0.770 | down |
| TWMJF | 1.330 | 1.700 | up |
| UPOT | 0.040 | 0.125 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| VAPE | 0.034 | 1.000 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.050 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | up |
| VPCO | 0.400 | 0.840 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.005 | 0.013 | flat |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 1.100 | 1.420 | up |
Saturday Review’s recording (for 10/24/15) …
Last week’s rally produced a breakout that was confirmed, requiring at least one more higher close before a trend reversal can be considered seriously. How much higher, and how to invalidate it, were addressed during the broader market discussion during this week’s Saturday Review. There was an awesome stream of questions from subscribers, as well.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
AAPL, LINKD, HOG, PII, CYBR, ABTL, RH, BIDU, BABA, VC, GM, GG, IBKR, MHG, NXPI, PAAS
10/24/2015 09:22:16 SM: good
10/24/2015 09:22:18 steve: yes
10/24/2015 09:22:21 Mark Glezer: gm
10/24/2015 09:29:41 MK: good morning
10/24/2015 09:31:18 David B: good morning
10/24/2015 09:31:28 Josey: GM
10/24/2015 09:31:29 Charles Daniel: GO ROYALS
10/24/2015 09:48:55 Mark Glezer: tech earnings on Thu were good offsetting a negative sentiment of misses among other sectors like financials etc. Do u think it’s already priced in or may help NDX further and be an obstacle for ES to reverse down?
10/24/2015 09:53:43 SM: Is the market still maintaining the ‘correction’ paradigm? If we compare recent price action to the Feb – Aug topping pattern (i.e., a fractal), is the currrent rally akin to the brief break higher that we were watching for in July and Aug? Is the ultimate resolution to this current rally the same – an aggressive move lower to new yearly lows?
10/24/2015 09:54:38 steve: when you look at the other indexes please also look at RUT
10/24/2015 09:55:05 David B: With the market now up for the year do you think money mangers will be chasing performance this week since mutual funds usually close their books at the end of oct. meaning are alot of them down on the year?
10/24/2015 09:55:52 MK: David I think thats what this is
10/24/2015 09:56:37 David B: MK That is my feeling also
10/24/2015 09:57:29 Tom: can you look at aapl,lnkd
10/24/2015 09:57:33 Bill G: What can invalidate 2088 with a third higher close less than 2088 ?
10/24/2015 09:58:51 David B: two consecrive closes below 2024 will indicate we are back to at least test 1980?
10/24/2015 10:00:25 Mark Glezer: u mentioned 3 ways to reverse down but only showed 2 of them from 2088 or a new high. What is the 3rd way?
10/24/2015 10:01:27 Mark Glezer: just reversing from a flat open perhaps without getting to 2088?
10/24/2015 10:04:11 David B: I mentioned this last week is this similar to 2011. has this changed by this week rally? . I think there was a 10% drop into the end of the year?
10/24/2015 10:04:12 Bill G: A trend change still does nor negate 2088 ?
10/24/2015 10:04:45 MK: IMO if i had OPM I’d be betting on SPX 2100 next week
10/24/2015 10:04:50 steve: should 2055 now provide support on a modest pullback?
10/24/2015 10:06:47 Mark Glezer: k
10/24/2015 10:08:15 David B: has big money changed their opinion or has this rally been on central banks and short covering?
10/24/2015 10:09:01 MK: HOG
10/24/2015 10:09:01 MK: PII
10/24/2015 10:09:06 MK: ABTL
10/24/2015 10:09:08 MK: RH
10/24/2015 10:09:10 MK: VC
10/24/2015 10:09:13 MK: GM
10/24/2015 10:09:20 MK: (All Are Shorts)
10/24/2015 10:09:33 MK: GG
10/24/2015 10:09:34 MK: IBKR
10/24/2015 10:09:39 MK: MHG
10/24/2015 10:09:44 MK: NXPI
10/24/2015 10:09:47 MK: PAAS
10/24/2015 10:09:50 David B: 2011 q. drop in aug folowed by rally and retest of lows and then rally look like similar patterns
10/24/2015 10:10:07 MK: (Last 5 are longs)
10/24/2015 10:10:23 Bill G: What is relevent unfinished business below?
10/24/2015 10:10:23 MK: well the correction was pretty sever
10/24/2015 10:10:24 MK: e
10/24/2015 10:10:34 MK: it makes sense the rally would be equally as severe
10/24/2015 10:10:40 MK: given the robots are in charge
10/24/2015 10:12:39 David B: anytime we get to an inflection point where it seems the market is heading down big something like central banks and come in. is this what you be referring to the bar tab at some point we need to pay?
10/24/2015 10:13:51 Mark Glezer: do u think the buyers who missed the Spring distribution and bought there maybe smarter if we get to that level again & become sellers?
10/24/2015 10:18:05 Bill G: Both Fed & BOJ this wk to make things interesting
10/24/2015 10:19:59 David B: are you saying we are only in a correction and not a bull market because it takes time to go from one to another?. what would change we were in a bull market?
10/24/2015 10:20:11 MK: Wasnt’ Rubin the Clinton Administration?
10/24/2015 10:21:11 MK: (TinfoilHat) Clinton did more to establish manipulative and distortionary policy and set the prescident going forward. Doesn’t surprise me that Rubin was so effective…..(/TinFoilHat)
10/24/2015 10:21:52 David B: i mean from a bear market to bull market
10/24/2015 10:24:58 Bill G: I’ m still curious if post ecb decline after Mon takes place.
10/24/2015 10:25:34 MK: Rod…… Hedonics?
10/24/2015 10:25:42 MK: i mean thats pure brilliance
10/24/2015 10:26:06 David B: SBUX,X
10/24/2015 10:26:29 SM: Sorry to bring you back to this point, but what you just said seems to contradict – Earlier you said that getting above 2088 is one of the paths to reversing down…not starting a bull market.
10/24/2015 10:27:04 Mark Glezer: is there a pattern to retrace ECB reaction within a week similar to Fed?
10/24/2015 10:28:49 SM: thx
10/24/2015 10:29:17 Bill G: There was always a rally into ecb in 2015
10/24/2015 10:29:50 Tom: aapl
10/24/2015 10:31:03 Tom: aapl reports after the bell on Tues
10/24/2015 10:32:17 steve: RUT
10/24/2015 10:33:11 Tom: no splits
10/24/2015 10:33:30 MK: OH One More anedote for this market and the PE bubble that exists in Tech. Someone got 500K in seed funding for ……. Get this……. Tinder for Threesomes
10/24/2015 10:33:47 MK: grrr. bad spelling ANECDOTE
10/24/2015 10:35:08 Tom: thx
10/24/2015 10:35:21 Josey: CYBR/Short
10/24/2015 10:36:10 MK: ok yeah i covered a bit here
10/24/2015 10:36:12 MK: will cover more
10/24/2015 10:36:19 MK: and reshort strength
10/24/2015 10:36:37 MK: Took A LONG TIME
10/24/2015 10:36:39 MK: hahah
10/24/2015 10:37:05 MK: Rod’s been saving me money shorting polaris since 2013
10/24/2015 10:44:07 Bill G: The current close on NYA is third lower high on McClellan Osc
10/24/2015 10:49:26 Mark Glezer: RSI neg on RUT
10/24/2015 10:49:48 Tom: ok thx
10/24/2015 10:50:34 MK: probably because there was no software
10/24/2015 10:50:35 MK: just the idea
10/24/2015 10:50:36 MK: got 500k
10/24/2015 10:54:23 MK: RH: Lets just say i’ve been short from 100 for awhile now
10/24/2015 10:54:44 MK: d’oh
10/24/2015 10:57:46 MK: man
10/24/2015 10:57:53 MK: you are really killing my short ideas
10/24/2015 10:59:09 MK: yeah i really like it
10/24/2015 10:59:40 MK: ok
10/24/2015 10:59:48 Tom: bidu
10/24/2015 11:00:37 MK: ok
10/24/2015 11:01:21 Mark Glezer: baba
10/24/2015 11:03:59 Mark Glezer: k
10/24/2015 11:09:08 Mark Glezer: thx much
10/24/2015 11:09:22 MK: have a good weekend
10/24/2015 11:09:24 Bill G: thanks
10/24/2015 11:09:26 MK: See you at 2100
10/24/2015 11:09:28 Charles Daniel: TKS
10/24/2015 11:09:32 Josey: TY
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us at either link below by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review.
We’ll discuss the implications of this week’s rally on the bigger picture, and then review any stock charts that you request.
Daily Spot… China rocks.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Extending down even more sharply on China’s interest rate moves has now produced a second consecutive lower close confirming Thursday’s breakout. Bounce potential is still 1.1180, if not 1.1140. But at least an eventual third lower close is now required.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Surging in reaction to China’s moves sent price through 1173.50. But 1180.00 was only attacked and not recovered before optimism disappeared. The 1165.50 pullback limit was tested down to 1160.00. Immediately recovering 1165.50 would be likely to extend higher. The pullback is otherwise likely to test 1155.00.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Friday and extending to 16.10 was reversed back into negative territory at 15.70. That was early and the balance of the session ranged narrowly around 15.85 to keep alive potential for launching a new upleg.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s gap down to fresh lows testing 156-16 compensated for the delay of Thursday’s redundant test of the bonce limit. But a second consecutive lower close confirming the trend change is still required.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Not terribly dissimilar to Thursday, Friday initially firmed in reaction to China’s economic nudging, but still reversed down to extend the trend reversal.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Friday precluded there being an immediate durable recovery. The open’s gap must still be filled after bouncing back up to “higher prior lows,” assuming the drop even tries to end. Which trending down after the open didn’t suggest.
(corrected link) Livestox Recording Oct 23, 2015
Friday’s Livestox recording is below, and the stocks we addressed in order follow that. We began with an extended “bigger picture” discussion in light of the very recent surging. Then I reviewed previous coverage and introduced a new timely pick. Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread.
SPX, GOOGL, AMZN, TWTR, INSY, AAPL, NFLX, GPRO, SPRWF, TWJMF, OGRMF, GWPH, CARA
GOOGL
AMZN
TWTR
INSY
AAPL
NFLX
GPRO
SPRWF
TWMJF
OGRMF
GWPH
CARA