Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 26, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s reports aren’t actually influential, which is ordinary for Mondays. The post-open housing sector report could influence price action if it’s surprising.
*New Home Sales
10:00 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
Livestox!
Join me Friday at 12:15pm ET for this week’s intraday Livestox. CLICK HERE by 12:15.
We’ll discuss the improving picture for Cannabis stocks, my recent picks for timeliness, and discuss recent earnings coverage.
Don’t forget to keep checking the most current post’s comments. A lot of great ideas are coming out there.
My newest timely pick is a longtime short that has been cut in half since picking its top there months ago — INSY, which is now meeting my target, while volume improves into a retest with RSIs diverging positively.
Daily Spot… Euroooooooh.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The potential for resuming its rally was overcome by the vulnerability to extending its decline. Two prior sessions of hovering optimistically short of filling its gap back to Friday’s close didn’t help to absorb Thursday’s bearish ECB news. Room for noise down to 1.1300 was easily exceeded on the way to a prior low at 1.1140. Closing above 1.1180 would signal the drop was only a one-day wonder.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Narrow ranging Thursday morning around the 1165.50 pullback limit that had held already Tuesday doesn’t prevent resuming the decline, but it does give confidence to a more aggressive buy signal than 1180.00, triggered above 1173.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s gap up tested 15.85 which helped to reject Wednesday’s dip under it. Closing any higher Friday would be credible for launching a new upleg to fresh highs.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s maximum bounce limit test had reacted down initially Thursday, but another upleg probed higher above 159-00 into Thursday afternoon. Back under 158-10 would resume the drop.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s gap up was retraced entirely back down to Wednesday’s low, in-line with the momentum reversal underway, which remains intact so long as bounces hold any test of 46.85.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s reaction to the EIA report probed a fresh low at 2.36 before bouncing to test Wednesday’s 2.38 low. This is still not a bottoming pattern, but there is no lower target in-play.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 23, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s post-open PMI report has a spotty track record for influencing price action. It’s the morning’s only report, so any outlier data can have a greater effect on price action.
*PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
9:45 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Daily Spot… Is Gold gone?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Ranging only narrowly Wednesday instead of rejecting Tuesday’s gap up session does suggest the recovery potential remains intact.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another break to fresh relative lower Wednesday tested the maximum pullback limit at 1165.50. Any lower would require a deeper and more prolonged drop before putting back into play a retest of prior highs up to 1195.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Wednesday to 15.85 extended to fresh lows intraday at 15.60. Back above 15.85 would start to signal momentum reversing back up. Closing under 15.60 would suggest no recovery soon.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Wednesday and extending back above the 158-04 sell signal also retraced Monday’s range entirely back up to 158-24, which is the highest acceptable corrective bounce.
Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending down overnight probed under last week’s two “ineffectual pessimism” sessions to 44.85. The trend remains down so long as 46.85 isn’t recovered through the close.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Two days of counter-trend bouncing had retraced almost all of the room allowed it up to 2.48-2.51. The overnight reaction down gapped down Wednesday to probe under the 2.41 prior low. A bottom would be premature, but a bottoming pattern could begin forming. Regardless, Thursday’s EIA report is not being greeted from a position of strength.