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Bigger Picture – Page 445 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bigger Picture

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Oct 22, 2015

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: Thursday’s busy calendar starts with its highlight, the ECB monetary meeting (usually followed by Mario Draghi’s Q&A). A couple of housing sector reports make each other influential, for their potential either to confirm or dispute each other..

**ECB Policy Statement
7:30 AM ET

*Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET

Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET

*FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET

Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
9:45 AM ET

*Existing Home Sales
10:00 AM ET

*Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET

EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET

30-Yr TIPS Auction
1:00 PM ET

Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET

Money Supply
4:30 PM ET

Daily Spot… Bonds are breaking.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Room for the pullback down to 1.1300 was ignored in favor of gapping up Tuesday. But most of the session trended back down after filling the gap back to Friday’s 1.1380 close. Closing above 1.1400 would signal the pullback had ended.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s close under 1180.00 wasn’t rejected at Tuesday’s open. But a bounce tested it intraday, and so avoided confirming Monday’s break. This leaves open the potential for recovering to fill either gap outstanding, or to fulfill potential to 1195.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming Tuesday continued to hold the 15.85 pullback limit, keeping alive potential for launching a new upleg by surging above 16.10.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Tuesday to Monday’s low under the 158-04 sell signal then extended lower intraday to confirm Monday’s break, but still needing to confirm the sell signal.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s weakness dipped deeper to test the 45.80 lower-end of last week’s two consecutive “ineffectual pessimism” sessions. Breaking lower Wednesday would signal the drop had resumed — and it should resume aggeressively.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday to probe above Monday’s high wasn’t any more likely to extend through 2.48-2.51 resistance, not until first retesting last week’s 2.41 low.

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Oct 21, 2015

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: The rather uneventful week for econ reports continues Wednesday, with nothing influential to the cash session except for a Fed speaker. In some ways it ends, as well, with a couple of higher profile items scheduled during the week’s two final sessions.

MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET

EIA Petroleum Status Report
10:30 AM ET

Jerome Powell Speaks
1:30 PM ET

Livestox Recording Oct 19, 2015

Monday’s post-close Livestox recording is below, and the stocks we addressed in order follow that. I highlighted my most timely picks, updated some previous coverage, and reviewed charts that were requested by subscribers. The session is heavy on analytical technique. Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread.

Livestox recording (MP4)

SPX

GPRO

TWTR

GILD

SCTY

BTX

KMDA

SZYM

ARNA

OGRMF

PMCB

TWMJF

XXII

ECIG

VAPE