Bigger Picture
Daily Spot…Bonds breaking?
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down under last week’s late lows stretched the rubber band tighter, still having room down to 1.1300 before being required to snap back up, or else to break sharply lower.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite having held its 1180.00 pullback limit as support Friday, Monday’s open gapped down and extended to test 1170.00. Gapping up Tuesday above 1180.00 would keep in-play the potential to 1195.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap down to 15.85 support precedes any probe of fresh highs, miking its recovery above 15.95 likely, and likely to launch a new upleg.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Sunday night’s test of the 158-04 sell signal was extended intraday to 157-18 before bouncing. Being a breakout from three consecutive range-bound sessions, a second consecutive lower close Tuesday would confirm the trend had reversed down.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Extending higher immediately Monday would have confirmed that Friday’s weak rally had actually rejected the prior two sessions’ “ineffectual pessimism.” Immediately dipping at Monday’s open threatened instead to invalidate Friday’s bounce.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Monday wasn’t credible for extending higher since Friday’s drop had barely touched the prior low without yet actually probing under it..
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 20, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: A housing sector report was Monday’s only item. It’s Tuesday’s only item, too. It has potential to influence price action for that reason alone. Surprising strength would help to confirm strength in Monday’s report that was otherwise dismissed.
*Housing Starts
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
Bill Dudley speaks
9:00 AM ET
Janet Yellen speaks
11:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
The First Trade… Compensating for the delay?
Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)
Through the prior close…
Friday’s expiration session ranged widely around 2019.50. The afternoon’s no-bias environment probed 4-points under its 2016.00 bias-down signal. Its reaction kept going, extending to fresh session highs attacking 2027.00 instead of resuming the decline. That was contrary to the bearish WedEx, although only the last half-hour probed fresh session highs above 2023.00.
Overnight action’s new info…
Sunday night’s open initially pulled back to attack 2018.00. Consolidating until Europe’s opens then surged to fresh highs at 2028.00. That has been retraced almost entirely down to 2019.00.
If, then…
The last chance for any bearish WedEX influence is Monday’s open, to begin trending down throughout the morning. This does not preclude the open from gapping up, and then sliding. And it does not include trending down only before the open. Regardless, the bearish WedEX is probably moot if the market is not already dropping during the opening 15 minutes.
First Trade…
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2016.50 would likely trigger the 2018.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2011.00 would likely also exceed the 2013.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Recovering 2024.00 through the open would be unlikely to trigger the 2018.00 bias-down signal at 10:15
The Universe, week of Oct 19 2015…
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Happy Anniversary! Monday, October 19, 1987 is called “Black Monday,” in part for the crash that happened that day, and in part as an homage to Black Tuesday, Oct 29 1929.
I’m certainly not convinced the market has bottomed, let alone that a new bull market is underway. But the parallels to 1987 are obsolete. That session was greeted by a market already in decline, and also yet to produce a wake-up call like August’s plunge. Neither of which prevents another downleg from beginning at any time.
Meanwhile, speculative interest among Cannabis stocks is improving. This week’s patterns of interest include ARNA, OGRMF, PMCB, TWMJF and XXII. We’ll review them during Livestox…
| Marijuana Stock Universe for October 19, 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 10 | 9.90% |
| trends* | # flat: | 15 | 14.85% |
| # down: | 76 | 75.25% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| AERO | 1.000 | 1.950 | down |
| AGTK | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.070 | 0.150 | down |
| ARNA | 2.200 | 2.900 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | down |
| AVTC | 0.000 | 0.400 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.130 | 0.240 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.031 | down |
| BTFL | 0.071 | 0.232 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.011 | down |
| CANL | 0.440 | 0.740 | down |
| CANN | 0.600 | 1.330 | flat |
| CANV | 0.570 | 0.860 | down |
| CARA | 14.250 | 18.870 | down |
| CBDS | 1.630 | 2.660 | flat |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.020 | 0.041 | flat |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.300 | 0.590 | down |
| DEWM | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| DIGP | 0.170 | 0.400 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.005 | 0.013 | down |
| EDXC | 0.007 | 0.019 | down |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | down |
| ENDO | 0.006 | 0.018 | down |
| ENRT | 0.017 | 0.037 | down |
| ERBB | 0.002 | 0.004 | flat |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.004 | 0.078 | up |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 2.960 | 3.160 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.270 | 0.460 | up |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | flat |
| GRNH | 0.023 | 0.067 | down |
| GWPH | 86.620 | 111.000 | down |
| HEMP | 0.050 | 0.107 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.100 | 0.180 | down |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 25.050 | 32.100 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LATF | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| LXRP | 0.098 | 0.205 | up |
| MCIG | 0.023 | 0.052 | down |
| MDBX | 0.062 | 0.150 | flat |
| MDCN | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MDRM | 0.008 | 0.025 | down |
| MINE | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MJNA | 0.031 | 0.042 | down |
| MNTR | 0.310 | 0.620 | down |
| MSRT | 1.410 | 1.880 | flat |
| MYEC | 0.014 | 0.021 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | down |
| NDEV | 0.016 | 0.053 | down |
| NMUS | 0.218 | 1.215 | down |
| NRTI | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| NTRR | 0.022 | 0.046 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.280 | 0.389 | up |
| OSLH | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| OXIS | 0.015 | 0.027 | down |
| PHOT | 0.010 | 0.030 | down |
| PLPL | 0.080 | 0.125 | down |
| PMCB | 0.095 | 0.140 | flat |
| PNTV | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| PZOO | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| QEDN | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.005 | 0.012 | down |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.082 | 0.165 | down |
| SRNA | 0.100 | 0.185 | up |
| STEV | 0.049 | 0.072 | flat |
| TAUG | 0.003 | 0.005 | down |
| THCZ | 0.075 | 0.013 | up |
| TRTC | 0.078 | 0.111 | down |
| TURV | 0.630 | 0.890 | down |
| TWMJF | 1.330 | 1.700 | up |
| UPOT | 0.040 | 0.125 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| VAPE | 0.034 | 1.000 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.050 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | up |
| VPCO | 0.400 | 0.840 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.005 | 0.013 | flat |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 1.100 | 1.420 | up |
Saturday Review’s recording (for 10/17/15) …End of a correction?
From its sudden start and its steep slope to its relentless progression, last week’s recovery from its initial dip had all the markings of being expiration-related. It should be obvious Monday afternoon whether that’s correct. If not, then the rally still has room before no longer considering it as only a temporary correction. Those topics and more are covered in this week’s Saturday Review, recorded below.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
SPX, AMZN, MSFT, V, TWTR, MCD, GOOGL
10/17/2015 09:32:04 David B: good morning
10/17/2015 09:32:19 Mark Glezer: gm
10/17/2015 09:48:57 David B: chinese data on monday GDP,retail sales,and industrial data could have been the catalyst for friday afternoon or sets the trend for monday?
10/17/2015 09:49:18 Mark Glezer: seems like buyer dodged a big bullet perhaps because sellers were too impatient Fri & the move originated in no-bias well ahead of 2:30 & sellers will have a much harder job on Mon?
10/17/2015 09:49:23 SM: Does the bullish scenario you desribe (failing to successfully reject the bullish bias during expiraton) also negate the bearish context from which this has begun?
10/17/2015 10:00:44 steve: if the market does pullback below 1980 do we then need for new context or should the market continue to fall?
10/17/2015 10:03:46 Mark Glezer: indexes – anything interesting?
10/17/2015 10:04:24 steve: small caps underperforming
10/17/2015 10:06:44 David B: AMZN,MSFT
10/17/2015 10:07:22 ljr: stocks: v, twtr,
10/17/2015 10:08:31 SM: larger market question: is there any emerging evidence to sugges that the ‘biggest fish’ is no longer oriented bearishly?
10/17/2015 10:09:16 ljr: sorry meant: visa
10/17/2015 10:11:00 David B: is amzn and msft position of strength for earnings?
10/17/2015 10:12:05 David B: thursday
10/17/2015 10:14:42 SM: you/re mixing up the questions.
10/17/2015 10:16:52 David B: MCD,GOOGL
10/17/2015 10:19:18 David B: earnings thursday for MCD
10/17/2015 10:21:23 David B: googl on thursday
10/17/2015 10:26:28 SM: y thx
10/17/2015 10:26:49 Mark Glezer: thx much
10/17/2015 10:26:53 David B: thanks