Bigger Picture
Daily Spot… Setting up for big moves,
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s ranging around Thursday’s 1.1370 lows still didn’t reverse the trend down, and allows the rally to resume at any time.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Reacting down overnight into Friday’s open thoroughly tested the 1179.50 pullback limit, which keeps alive potential for a fresh high that fulfills the 1195.50 target.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping again in sympathy with Gold has still not reversed the trend down. Extending higher modestly would be toppy, while an aggressive probe of fresh highs would be much more reliable for extending higher.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s “inside day” didn’t reverse the week’s bounce to resistance, but neither was the bounce confirmed. The sell signal remains at 158-04.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up Friday to test 47.40 was recovered after an intraday dip, but it stopped short of rejecting the two prior sessions’ pessimism. Back under 46.10 would signal a new downleg underway. The bounce can otherwise extend up to 49.05.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday’s reaction down didn’t hold 2.44 Friday, and extended down to the two-week old prior low at 2.41. Any immediate bounce here would be considered only obligatory and temporary and likely to fail.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 19, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday is the 28th Anniversary of 1987”s “Black Monday” stock market crash. Exciting. The day’s economic calendar is even less exciting, as is the entire week. Monday’s Fed speaker is a highlight.
Housing Market Index
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Jeffrey Lacker Speaks
12:00 PM ET
Livestox Recording Oct 15, 2015
Thursday’s Livestox recording is below, and the stocks we addressed in order follow that. Please don’t hesitate posting follow-up questions to this blog post’s thread.
SPX — Rallying into expiration
CDE — Underperforming Gold
PAAS — Underperforming Gold
NGD — Seals bottom aove 3.42
GLD — Bottoming action
USO — Under 14.45 would target 12.85
RIG — Basing while waiting out Crude correction
HAL –Basing while waiting out Crude correction
CLF — Basing while waiting out Crude correction
CARA — Bounce to 17.75 would likely react down to fresh lows
INSY — Decline remains intact
GWPH — Targeting 67 ad 57 so long as 95 holds bounces
AAPL — Nothing bullish about the pattern
TWTR — Pullback to 28 area should launch next upleg to test 34 area
NFLX — Under 120 would seal a top
ORA — Recovery potential needs pullbacks to hold 34.90-35.40
FOLD — request
XON — Ongoing potential to 20.47
TRTC — Reiterating warning
TWMJF — Pullback to 1.35-1.40 should launch next upleg
XXII — Interesting bottoming pattern
SRNA — Still requires close above .18 to launch next upleg
CANN — Must hold 1.20 for pullback to be only a correction
MSRT –Under 1.81 concerned price action conflicting with rumors
MCIG –Monitoring for reaction up from .0175
VAPE –Pullback needs to hold .034 to maintain potential for $1
Daily Spot… Gold arching.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s gap down extended intraday to test the three prior sessions’ 1.1370 support. More backing-and-filling can’t be precluded before resuming the rally to its 1.1595 target.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Trending up overnight and gapping up Thursday to within $4 of the target at 1191.70 reacted down into negative territory to 1174.00. Recovering nearly all of the post-open slide keeps alive the target, although I’m lowering it 20 cents to 1195.50.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Despite having ignored Gold’s rally, Silver spiked down in tandem with Gold at Thursday’s open. But, like Gold, it was recovered entirely, relatively more so. Nevertheless, not extending higher aggressively would be unlikely to maintain any shallower gains.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Overnight highs touched the 159-22 room for noise above the 159-13. Trending back down from there at Thursday’s open then spent the balance of the session repeatedly testing the 158-23 gap that had attracted price higher. Back under 158-04 would signal momentum reversing down.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Thursday did not exploit Wednesday’s “ineffectual pessimism,” The morning’s EIA report kept price under pressure ranging at or under 46.00 for another ineffectual pessimism session.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Thursday to a fresh recovery high at 2.58 was reversed down hard by the EIA report — back to and through the 2.48 “lower prior highs.” There’s still room down to 2.43 without launching a new downleg. Back above 2.52 would put into play a test of 2.67.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 16, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Two of Friday’s reports are reliable for influencing price action. Only one is high-profile, but both are released simultaneously and post-open, two elements that make them even likelier either to reverse or to accelerate any initial trending.
Industrial Production
9:15 AM ET
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET