Bigger Picture
Daily Spot… Gold makes a break for it.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Friday filled the 1.1370 gap back up to prior highs. Closing above or below the gap for two consecutive sessions would be the first available signal of whether the break higher is durable, or else peaking..
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s FOMC reaction had ultimately resolved down to fill the gap back to Thursday’s open around 1137.50. Holding it would allow the rally to resume, which it did overnight by probing fresh highs up to 1159.00. The rally remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 1148.00 as support.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Holding the 15.55 pullback limit’s test Thursday still hasn’t resumed the rally, as Friday ranged widely around Thursday’s close.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s overnight bounce didn’t prevent Friday morning’s fresh lows, but the 156-16 sell signal held its test to avoid confirming the 157-24 sell signal’s break..
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Not confirming Wednesday’s breakout did not equate to being a sell signal, but Friday’s probe of fresh highs held Thursday’s high to suggest that buyers have expended all available energy without gaining traction for the effort.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday morning’s subdued trading didn’t offer any strength to take credibly, perhaps because of the impending weekend. The same setup applies Monday, and early strength would be credible for extending higher intraday targeting 2.67.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Oct 12, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Treasury futures trade on Monday, but not bonds themselves. The thinness inhibits its use for laying off risk, which inhibits stock market participation. So, the mid-morning Fed speaker’s comments might impact price more greatly than normal.
US Holiday: Columbus Day
Markets Open, Banks Closed
*Charles Evans Speaks
10:30 AM ET
Lael Brainard Speaks
4:30 PM ET
Stock notes… Fri Oct 9, 2015…
REMINDER: Next week’s post-close Livestox that normally happens on Monday WILL INSTEAD happen on Tuesday. More information to come…
VAPE — I’m resuming close monitoring as the pattern may be forming a near-term bottom. Back above .046 would target .10. Volume patterns are already compelling as .038 is being tested.
TWTR — This was my top immediate timing pick during the past two Livestox, especially Monday after 24 had held another test as support. Yesterday tested 31.50, with more upside expected. But at this stage I would rather stalk a pullback to 28 instead of adding into strength.
Latest post — Be sure to monitor the comments sections of current posts. Good ideas are being posted there, and I’m commenting on them.
Daily Spot… Action in the gaps.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
There is no active signal, so Thursday’s probe above 1.1265 resistance doesn’t have any predictive value, regardless of it also extending intraday to probe last Friday’s 1.1330 high..
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Having filled the gap Wednesday back to the 2-1/2 week old close, and then closing flat-to-positive after reacting into negative territory, Thursday’s gap down was not expected to extend lower. In fact, it was retraced entirely back up to Wednesday’s “higher prior lows” as resistance.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Extending higher to 16.10 through Wednesday never altered the pattern to raise its pullback limit any higher than 15.55. Thursday’s gap down had probed under it to 15.37, but still overlapping it keeps alive the potential for recovering the gap down and then resuming the rally.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
More flat ranging ahead Thursday’s auction and FOMC Minutes came and went, without budging beyond its recent narrow range supported by the 157-24 sell signal. The door remains open to fill the gap back up to 158-24 before a more convincing break under the 157-24 and 156-16 sell signals.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Not confirming Tuesday’s breakout Wednesday had not reversed the trend down, but Thursday only firmed back to Wednesday’s high, aided by bullish comments from OPEC about future demand.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from neither a position of strength nor of weakness — mostly the latter — enabled a favorable reaction that returned back up to Wednesday’s highs. Already having neutralized the gap above at 2.51, extending through it could target a higher gap outstanding at 2.67.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Oct 9, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s two Fed speakers follow Thursday afternoon’s FOMC Minutes. They’re normally high-profile, but the timing adds extra focus on their comments, so also the potential for extra impact from them.
*Dennis Lockhart Speaks
9:15 AM ET
Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
1:30 PM ET