Bigger Picture
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday didn’t confirm Friday’s breakout, but that didn’t prevent initially probing higher Tuesday morning. However, nothing required that probe to extend higher, let alone to be maintained, and the balance of the sessino returned to its narrow ranging.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s attack on the rally’s 1169.00 target had reacted down into overnight trading as low as 1151.00. Tuesday’s recovery pierced a fresh high above 1167.00 with more upside remaining in-play.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Only slightly lower lows overnight as price continued ranging narrowly Tuesday back at or under last week’s highs.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially firming into Tuesday’s open was reversed back into negative territory into the afternoon, but that didn’t extend any more so than the open’s brief strength. That doesn’t suggest buyers are trying to exploit the opportunity.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s low from last week’s highs was retraced by 50% at Tuesday’s high. That’s not a fibonacci calculation, but it does confirm the bounce was relevant, and that the slide can resume.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down at Tuesday’s open was recovered to pierce back above Monday’s highs. But that was retraced entirely to probe the morning’s low. “Lower prior highs” at 2.48 held, still allowing early strength to persist.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Oct 14, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s econ calendar is less busy than it appears, but very influential. The pre-open PPI is reliable for influencing price action. The afternoon’s Beige Book is high-profile and generates a reaction, too.
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET
Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
Daily Spot… Gravity.
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s surge didn’t extend Monday, and barely enhanced intraday volatility.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially trending higher overnight to attack the 1169.00 target was retraced back to Monday’s high, but not into negative territory, maintaining the rally’s momentum.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming ahead of Monday’s open still barely even attacked last week’s 16.08-16.11 highs. But the session closed positive, keeping alive the recovery’s momentum and its potential to become a new rally leg.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The cash market was closed for Columbus Day which continued to inhibit trending beyond either sell signal currently being tested.
Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s dip attacking “lower prior highs” at or under 47.00 helps to confirm the recent surge wasn’t sponsored by strong hands, but it doesn’t yet reverse the trend down. That would be signaled by closing under 46.00.
Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat narrow ranging didn’t offer any early strength that would have been credible for extending higher intraday, and which still would be credible for extending higher intraday.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 13, 2015
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s Fed speaker may be high-profile, but his influence on intraday price action is less likely to be very influential since his comments are pre-open. No other relevant econ report is due, but the quarterly earnings onslaught continues.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
James Bullard Speaks
8:00 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
The Universe, week of Oct 12 2015…
[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
My morning note Friday on VAPE cleared the email approval hurdle after several minutes, which was enough time to surge through resistance. Having been chipped away, the potential for extending through resistance is greater. Regardless, this is only for a corrective bounce and not for a durable recovery.
Not, yet.
There are a lot of VAPEs starting to form — not necessarily the same profile or liquidity, but ongoing declines showing signs that at least a corrective rally will soon develop. Note that this does NOT include stocks which continue printing lower and lower lows (I’m talking to you, MCIG).
| Marijuana Stock Universe for October 12, 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 8 | 7.92% |
| trends* | # flat: | 15 | 14.85% |
| # down: | 78 | 77.23% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| AERO | 1.000 | 1.950 | down |
| AGTK | 0.000 | 0.009 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.070 | 0.182 | down |
| ARNA | 1.490 | 2.900 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | down |
| AVTC | 0.000 | 0.400 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.130 | 0.340 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.048 | down |
| BTFL | 0.071 | 0.232 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.011 | down |
| CANL | 0.440 | 0.740 | down |
| CANN | 0.970 | 1.330 | flat |
| CANV | 0.570 | 0.860 | down |
| CARA | 14.250 | 18.870 | down |
| CBDS | 1.630 | 2.660 | flat |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.020 | 0.041 | flat |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.210 | 0.380 | down |
| DEWM | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| DIGP | 0.170 | 0.400 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.005 | 0.013 | down |
| EDXC | 0.007 | 0.019 | down |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | down |
| ENDO | 0.006 | 0.018 | down |
| ENRT | 0.017 | 0.037 | down |
| ERBB | 0.002 | 0.004 | flat |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.004 | 0.078 | up |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 2.960 | 3.160 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.270 | 0.460 | up |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | flat |
| GRNH | 0.023 | 0.067 | down |
| GWPH | 86.620 | 111.000 | down |
| HEMP | 0.050 | 0.107 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.100 | 0.180 | down |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 25.050 | 32.100 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LATF | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| LXRP | 0.098 | 0.205 | up |
| MCIG | 0.023 | 0.052 | down |
| MDBX | 0.062 | 0.150 | flat |
| MDCN | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MDRM | 0.008 | 0.025 | down |
| MINE | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MJNA | 0.031 | 0.042 | down |
| MNTR | 0.310 | 0.620 | down |
| MSRT | 1.410 | 1.880 | flat |
| MYEC | 0.014 | 0.021 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.100 | down |
| NDEV | 0.016 | 0.053 | down |
| NMUS | 0.218 | 1.215 | down |
| NRTI | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| NTRR | 0.022 | 0.046 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.110 | 0.310 | down |
| OSLH | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| OXIS | 0.015 | 0.027 | down |
| PHOT | 0.010 | 0.030 | down |
| PLPL | 0.080 | 0.125 | down |
| PMCB | 0.080 | 0.112 | flat |
| PNTV | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| PZOO | 0.004 | 0.008 | down |
| QEDN | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.005 | 0.012 | down |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.082 | 0.165 | down |
| SRNA | 0.100 | 0.185 | up |
| STEV | 0.049 | 0.072 | flat |
| TAUG | 0.003 | 0.005 | down |
| THCZ | 0.075 | 0.013 | up |
| TRTC | 0.078 | 0.111 | down |
| TURV | 0.630 | 0.89 | down |
| TWMJF | 1.070 | 1.280 | down |
| UPOT | 0.040 | 0.125 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| VAPE | 0.046 | 1.000 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.050 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.025 | 0.048 | up |
| VPCO | 0.400 | 0.840 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.005 | 0.013 | flat |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | flat |
| XXII | 0.085 | 1.100 | up |
