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Bigger Picture – Page 449 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bigger Picture

Daily Spot…

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday didn’t confirm Friday’s breakout, but that didn’t prevent initially probing higher Tuesday morning. However, nothing required that probe to extend higher, let alone to be maintained, and the balance of the sessino returned to its narrow ranging.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Monday’s attack on the rally’s 1169.00 target had reacted down into overnight trading as low as 1151.00. Tuesday’s recovery pierced a fresh high above 1167.00 with more upside remaining in-play.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Only slightly lower lows overnight as price continued ranging narrowly Tuesday back at or under last week’s highs.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Initially firming into Tuesday’s open was reversed back into negative territory into the afternoon, but that didn’t extend any more so than the open’s brief strength. That doesn’t suggest buyers are trying to exploit the opportunity.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s low from last week’s highs was retraced by 50% at Tuesday’s high. That’s not a fibonacci calculation, but it does confirm the bounce was relevant, and that the slide can resume.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down at Tuesday’s open was recovered to pierce back above Monday’s highs. But that was retraced entirely to probe the morning’s low. “Lower prior highs” at 2.48 held, still allowing early strength to persist.

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Oct 14, 2015

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: Wednesday’s econ calendar is less busy than it appears, but very influential. The pre-open PPI is reliable for influencing price action. The afternoon’s Beige Book is high-profile and generates a reaction, too.

MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET

*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET

*Retail Sales
8:30 AM ET

Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET

4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

52-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

*Beige Book
2:00 PM ET

Daily Spot… Gravity.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday’s surge didn’t extend Monday, and barely enhanced intraday volatility.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Initially trending higher overnight to attack the 1169.00 target was retraced back to Monday’s high, but not into negative territory, maintaining the rally’s momentum.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Firming ahead of Monday’s open still barely even attacked last week’s 16.08-16.11 highs. But the session closed positive, keeping alive the recovery’s momentum and its potential to become a new rally leg.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The cash market was closed for Columbus Day which continued to inhibit trending beyond either sell signal currently being tested.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s dip attacking “lower prior highs” at or under 47.00 helps to confirm the recent surge wasn’t sponsored by strong hands, but it doesn’t yet reverse the trend down. That would be signaled by closing under 46.00.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat narrow ranging didn’t offer any early strength that would have been credible for extending higher intraday, and which still would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Oct 13, 2015

A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.

Highlights: Tuesday’s Fed speaker may be high-profile, but his influence on intraday price action is less likely to be very influential since his comments are pre-open. No other relevant econ report is due, but the quarterly earnings onslaught continues.

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET

James Bullard Speaks
8:00 AM ET

Redbook
8:55 AM ET

3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET

The Universe, week of Oct 12 2015…

[Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

My morning note Friday on VAPE cleared the email approval hurdle after several minutes, which was enough time to surge through resistance. Having been chipped away, the potential for extending through resistance is greater. Regardless, this is only for a corrective bounce and not for a durable recovery.

Not, yet.

There are a lot of VAPEs starting to form — not necessarily the same profile or liquidity, but ongoing declines showing signs that at least a corrective rally will soon develop. Note that this does NOT include stocks which continue printing lower and lower lows (I’m talking to you, MCIG).

Marijuana Stock Universe for October 12, 2015
Reference this table during stock reactions
4-week # up: 8 7.92%
trends* # flat: 15 14.85%
# down: 78 77.23%
*The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks.
symbol support resistance 4-week trend
ACGX 0.000 0.003 down
AERO 1.000 1.950 down
AGTK 0.000 0.009 down
AMMJ 0.070 0.182 down
ARNA 1.490 2.900 down
ATTBF 0.035 0.075 down
AVTC 0.000 0.400 down
BLOZF 0.130 0.340 down
BLPG 0.015 0.086 down
BRDT 0.012 0.048 down
BTFL 0.071 0.232 down
CAFS 0.001 0.011 down
CANL 0.440 0.740 down
CANN 0.970 1.330 flat
CANV 0.570 0.860 down
CARA 14.250 18.870 down
CBDS 1.630 2.660 flat
CBGI 0.000 0.005 down
CBIS 0.020 0.041 flat
CGRW 0.360 0.610 flat
CHUM n/a n/a down
CNAB 0.210 0.380 down
DEWM 0.001 0.003 down
DIGP 0.170 0.400 down
DSCR 0.000 0.025 down
EAPH 0.005 0.013 down
EDXC 0.007 0.019 down
ENCC n/a n/a down
ENDO 0.006 0.018 down
ENRT 0.017 0.037 down
ERBB 0.002 0.004 flat
ETST n/a n/a flat
EXMT 0.000 0.004 up
FITX 0.004 0.078 up
FSPM 0.000 0.250 down
FULL 2.960 3.160 down
FWDG 0.000 0.002 down
GBLX 0.270 0.460 up
GRCU 0.000 0.004 flat
GRNH 0.023 0.067 down
GWPH 86.620 111.000 down
HEMP 0.050 0.107 down
ICBU 0.000 0.003 down
IGRW 0.000 0.002 down
IMLFF 0.100 0.180 down
INCC 0.000 0.002 down
INSY 25.050 32.100 down
ITNS 0.001 0.005 down
KAYS 0.067 0.187 flat
LATF 0.000 0.001 down
LXRP 0.098 0.205 up
MCIG 0.023 0.052 down
MDBX 0.062 0.150 flat
MDCN 0.000 0.001 down
MDRM 0.008 0.025 down
MINE 0.000 0.002 down
MJMD 0.000 0.015 down
MJMJ 0.000 0.001 down
MJNA 0.031 0.042 down
MNTR 0.310 0.620 down
MSRT 1.410 1.880 flat
MYEC 0.014 0.021 down
MYHI 0.013 0.100 down
NDEV 0.016 0.053 down
NMUS 0.218 1.215 down
NRTI 0.000 0.002 down
NTRR 0.022 0.046 flat
OGRMF 0.110 0.310 down
OSLH 0.000 0.001 down
OXIS 0.015 0.027 down
PHOT 0.010 0.030 down
PLPL 0.080 0.125 down
PMCB 0.080 0.112 flat
PNTV 0.001 0.007 down
PZOO 0.004 0.008 down
QEDN 0.000 0.003 down
REDG 0.000 0.003 down
RFMK 0.000 0.002 down
RSSFF 0.030 0.100 down
SING 0.005 0.012 down
SKTO 0.000 0.004 down
SPRWF 0.082 0.165 down
SRNA 0.100 0.185 up
STEV 0.049 0.072 flat
TAUG 0.003 0.005 down
THCZ 0.075 0.013 up
TRTC 0.078 0.111 down
TURV 0.630 0.89 down
TWMJF 1.070 1.280 down
UPOT 0.040 0.125 down
USEI 0.000 0.003 down
VAPE 0.046 1.000 down
VAPR 0.000 0.050 down
VGPR 0.000 0.002 down
VHUB 0.025 0.048 up
VPCO 0.400 0.840 down
VPOR 0.000 0.001 down
WDHR 0.000 0.002 down
WOGI 0.005 0.013 flat
XTRM 0.001 0.004 flat
XXII 0.085 1.100 up