Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday’s weaker open suggested that Friday’s bounce had neutralized excessive pessimism from Friday’s gap down. But it immediately began reversing up and probed above Friday’s high. Nevertheless, resolving to new lows remains likely so long as bounces hold 1.1265.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s reaction down from Thursday’s surge to 1156.50 extended down Sunday night to open Monday back under the surge’s 1136.00 low, testing Wednesday’s 1128.00 low. Closing back above 1137.50 would suggest the reaction down had ended, but it otherwise has potential to retest 1117.00

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap down under last week’s lows was probed under 14.65 support whose recovery would signal the drop is only a temporary correction. Closing under 14.50 would all but require new lows under 14.20.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Presumably facilitated by Sunday night’s stock market drop, the Island created by Friday’s gap down was recovered already Monday after gapping up and then extending to retest Thursday’s 157-16 high. Unfinished business below was left outstanding at 153-26, which would be put into play back under 156-16.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Renewed weakness only attacked last week’s lows, so far, on the way to fulfilling at least the 42.80 pullback target so long as bounces hold 46.00 as resistance.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
After Friday’s inside day had held the range’s lower-end, gapping up above its 2.60 upper-end had extended already to 2.64. It reacted down back within the range, but a second consecutive higher close Tuesday would confirm a new upleg is underway.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down sharply Friday helped to confirm that Thursday did contain the corrective bounce’s peak. But the gap also created room for another slight bounce while awaiting the eventual third lower close in-play.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Thursday’s runaway rally had already indicated its momentum was peaking before Friday’s open gapped down to test the 1141.50 prior highs as support. The inside day should next extend down to 1129.50-1134.00 and before filling the gap back up to Thursday’s close. Filling the gap first would be more toppy.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s rally had stopped pessimistically short of filling the gap back to Monday’s close, so Friday’s reaction down recovered entirely back to Thursday’s highs.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Friday formed an Island of Thursday’s gap up that had held its resistance. Filling the gap back to Thursday’s close would be bearish instead of extending down first to test 153-24 support.

Crude Oil Nov Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Flat-to-higher ranging Friday didn’t even bother trying to invalidate the decline underway, still targeting 42.80.

Natural Gas Oct Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s inside day gapped down to probe the same 2.56 prior lows that Thursday’s dip had recovered, ending the day hovering around it. The price action doesn’t equate to being a buy signal, but any initial strength Monday would be credible for extending higher intraday.