Bigger Picture
Livestox, Aug 27 2015…What goes down…
With the market in turmoil recently, you can imagine there was a lot to discuss. Here”s the list and the order:
SPX
GLD
OIL
ERBB
CBIS
MDBX
MCIG
CARA
TRTC
GWPH
SRNA
LXRP
CBDS
UA
SUNE
BABA
BTU
AMZN
GOOGL
GPRO
NFLX
SCTY
TLSA
TWTR
AAPL
INTL
VPOR
INTC
Whew! Well, we survived that.
Whew! Well, we survived that. The great bear market. It was uncomfortable for almost an entire week… Sure, that”s how bear markets and crashes run their course, quickly ending so the rally can get back to business.
Not likely. So, we”ll review the stocks discussed last week as being especially sensitive to the crash forming at the time, and those we discussed could be bought lower. There are several cannabis issues to revisit, too. And of course, you may want to request instant chart analysis of your stocks.
We”ll also discuss the Investment Policy Committee”s formation.
Login here by12:15pm ET
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm
SPECIAL PRE-OPEN GUIDANCE Last week”s
SPECIAL PRE-OPEN GUIDANCE
Last week”s decline extended down sharply overnight. By way of illustration, the Dow”s 531-point decline from Friday was matched by midnight last night. And after bouncing for awhile, the decline has resumed and probed another 200 points under its earlier low.
Stocks are about to open much lower than Friday”s close. They will open in a very staggered fashion, so that in some cases it might be 15-30 minutes before an initial trade occurs. This may be described to you as capitulative marking a low. While that may be true for timing purposes, the ultimate price low can be much lower.
The alternative to a bottom here may be to break. Not break support, but break. (Nasdaq Futures were halted literally 3 minutes after I wrote the prior sentence). Profitability in today”s session goes beyond buy and sell signals, and depends upon systems remaining up and running.
Also be aware that we”re dealing with much more sizable moves. 5-6 tick stops in a normal environment could equate to 5-6 points today. Making a wrong move or staying too long could devastate your account. Similarly, price information you might normally consider as confirming a position is valid could be only noise.
The bottom line to it all is that there is no bottom line to it all today. If you”re trading at all — which isn”t required of you — consider shrinking the size of your normal positions. Always work to avoid overtrading, today more than any other day.
Best of luck!
Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/22/15) … Trending.
Two consecutive lower closes under a multi-session range — breakout, and confirmation. That”s the minimum definition of trending, because the setup now requires an eventual third lower close. It could be thirty lower closes, but it need not be consecutive.
The substantiality of the two-day breakout, more than its velocity, suggests that it will lead to more than just a third lower close. And its velocity, more than its substantiality, suggests that third lower close will Monday.
Regardless, it”s a big change from the multi-month trading range being left behind. Not so much a new reality, as the en masse recognition of a reality. It”s a reality which we”ve been discussing during our during our weekly Saturday Reviews for almost a half-year.
Some of the observations were redundant, but now there are more points to make — about 530 of them Friday, alone, and 1100 points from last week”s high. With the welcome help of a lot of great questions and observations from subscribers, we spent 90 minutes on Saturday discussing what was expected and what”s next as the market enters a new phase.
These stocks were discussed, in this order: AMZN GOOGL TSLA NFLX FB DPZ REGN MU PANW DIS GMCR TWTR JCP
08/22/2015 09:33:27 Charles Daniel: hi0
08/22/2015 09:33:51 Mark Glezer: gm
08/22/2015 09:38:39 Miss Kitty: Does WedEx happen every Wednesday?
08/22/2015 09:39:18 Chicken Little: MK expiration falls once a month on
the 3rd friday of the month
08/22/2015 09:39:38 Miss Kitty: Ok. Thanks, Chicken. ;-)
08/22/2015 09:39:42 Chicken Little: thw wedex signal occurrs only on the
wednesday preceeding the expiration
08/22/2015 09:44:23 Chicken Little: the AM & noon hour declining channel
made another fractal IMO in the PM… don”t have much as to what it
implies, but i find it interesting
08/22/2015 09:45:24 David B: when you have a inverted wed ex does this
mean big money is behind it?
08/22/2015 09:47:24 Bill G: Gap up could be pivot rev
08/22/2015 09:48:39 David B: when we closed below 2035 on wed was the
next potentional support 1917?
08/22/2015 09:48:40 Rod David: m r: is it true that it CANT gap above a
relevant high becuase that would trigger a session long rally?
08/22/2015 09:49:11 Chicken Little: yes
08/22/2015 09:49:17 Chicken Little: you are drawing in the right place
08/22/2015 09:49:22 Chicken Little: yes
08/22/2015 09:49:38 Chicken Little: hahaha
08/22/2015 09:50:09 Mark Glezer: fractals seem very predictive
08/22/2015 09:52:29 David B: so its not a durable rally or decline?
08/22/2015 09:55:18 David B: durable rally or decline related to my
question wed ex inverted
08/22/2015 09:56:58 Mark Glezer: even if there is no gap up Mon and the
decline simply extends we cannot dismiss a potential of testing higher
prior lows around 2000 over the next few days?
08/22/2015 10:00:06 Bill G: Nothing scientific but found the low /high
on pivot rev days to have the intraday price extreme to occur around
12:30. That would fit quite well with the WedEx pattern. Of course a gap
up is I suspect a low probability
08/22/2015 10:00:15 David B: was 2035 the trend change?
08/22/2015 10:03:15 Mark Glezer: would u expect a move to the next
support under 1900 to happen within a day or two?
08/22/2015 10:06:22 Chicken Little: also lets not forget
08/22/2015 10:06:28 Chicken Little: we could be trading 1900 monday
08/22/2015 10:08:55 Mark Glezer: sure but a size of Mon move could be
comparable to Fri range?
08/22/2015 10:15:56 Mark Glezer: would u expect ES to continue its
inverse relationship with bonds?
08/22/2015 10:18:08 Mark Glezer: ES is not even 8% down
08/22/2015 10:19:54 joe parasconda: what are your thoughts on
capitulation and how it can effect a potential reversal
08/22/2015 10:20:17 Mark Glezer: headlines screeam “correction” meaning
the majority still thinks in terms of a bull market
08/22/2015 10:20:25 Chicken Little: the next one won”t be a flash
08/22/2015 10:21:25 David B: how does the russell play into this as far
as if it starts to outperform?
08/22/2015 10:23:12 David B: if we start to head toward that v bottom
would you expect the fed would try and step in before?
08/22/2015 10:24:04 Mark Glezer: was the reaction to Fed”s minutes the
actual trigger to the decline?
08/22/2015 10:24:38 Mark Glezer: since it never looked back after
printing 2094
08/22/2015 10:24:42 Bill G: Big money would not be dist in a 5% range to
turn around and buy with only a 10% drop
08/22/2015 10:26:26 Bill G: talk
08/22/2015 10:26:27 David B: QE
08/22/2015 10:28:28 David B: what number is that V bottom?
08/22/2015 10:29:43 Mark Glezer: I think they exhausted their resources.
Seems like a hint on a rate hike in Sep during the minutes could be
viewed bullishly as the economy is strong enough, Instead, the odds of a
hike went down to 38% & we went down
08/22/2015 10:30:14 Rod David: m r: Could you elaborate on your comments
about NDX being relatively outperforming and this recent decline
occurring even though there was still a credible possibility for a new
high?
08/22/2015 10:33:03 Mark Glezer: like in China – we all know where that
is going
08/22/2015 10:33:37 Mark Glezer: haha
08/22/2015 10:34:15 Chicken Little: nope
08/22/2015 10:34:19 Chicken Little: not catching any knives
08/22/2015 10:34:26 Mark Glezer: BABA – still looking for 63?
08/22/2015 10:34:38 Chicken Little: have a good weekend everyone see you
sunday night
08/22/2015 10:34:39 Mark Glezer: k
08/22/2015 10:35:15 David B: AMZN,NFLX
08/22/2015 10:39:01 David B: FB
08/22/2015 10:40:51 Chicken Little: DPZ
08/22/2015 10:42:08 David B: REGN
08/22/2015 10:44:27 David B: MU
08/22/2015 10:44:39 Chicken Little: PANW
08/22/2015 10:46:16 Rod David: m r: your comment about FB reminded me
that broader market is now obligated to a third lower close since it has
a confirmed break below the multi-session range.
08/22/2015 10:46:39 Chicken Little: yes
08/22/2015 10:46:42 Chicken Little: 170
08/22/2015 10:46:55 Chicken Little: i almost bought 150
08/22/2015 10:47:03 Chicken Little: but didn”t
08/22/2015 10:47:25 David B: DIS
08/22/2015 10:47:32 Chicken Little: that uptredning support line
08/22/2015 10:47:34 Chicken Little: kept going
08/22/2015 10:51:10 David B: GMCR
08/22/2015 10:54:17 David B: TWTR
08/22/2015 10:56:25 David B: JCP
08/22/2015 11:01:47 Mark Glezer: thx much
08/22/2015 11:02:03 David B: thanks
08/22/2015 11:02:04 Miss Kitty: Thanks!
08/22/2015 11:02:06 Charles Daniel: tks
The Universe, week of Aug 24 2015… All bad things come to an end, too.
Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||
Did the the number of rising stocks actually fall from last week? Uptrends dropped from 6 to 5. Don”t both with the percentage change, which can add meaning unjustifiably when dealing with such low numbers (but penny stock traders already know that).
My surprise comes after completing a review of the sector”s individual issues. There were several pops last week, and there have been 1-2 pops per week for a couple of months.
Look at CBDS, which I mentioned in the Activity Feed on Monday. It had been one of my poster children for price action contradicting hype. I often pointed out the distributive price action, which ultimately formed a Head & Shoulders, and eventually lost around 90%. But a sudden surge last week called attention to accumulative volume patterns, and by week”s end the stock had almost tripled.
We”ve caught multiple doubles during the past two months (SRNA, TRTC, MDBX, etc.), but the market seems to be igniting after fewer sparks. None of which assures that this continues. It”s still premature to reach a conclusion, but it certainly raises suspicions of having overly-discounted the sector”s potential negatives.
And all is not rosy, as the two highest profile issues (GWPH, INSY) continue deteriorating after having fulfilled very big upside targets. Meanwhile, CARA has continued showing signs of rolling over. Their eventual bottoms could mark a new wave for the sector.
| Marijuana Stock Universe for August 24, 2015 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 5 | 4.95% |
| trends* | # flat: | 14 | 13.86% |
| # down: | 82 | 81.19% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| AERO | 1.000 | 1.950 | down |
| AGTK | 0.000 | 0.009 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.125 | 0.272 | down |
| ARNA | 2.410 | 3.320 | down |
| ATTBF | 0.035 | 0.075 | down |
| AVTC | 0.000 | 0.400 | down |
| BLOZF | 0.130 | 0.340 | down |
| BLPG | 0.015 | 0.086 | down |
| BNRDF | 0.600 | 0.740 | flat |
| BRDT | 0.012 | 0.048 | down |
| BTFL | 0.071 | 0.232 | down |
| CAFS | 0.001 | 0.011 | down |
| CANL | 0.750 | 1.250 | down |
| CANN | 0.330 | 1.160 | down |
| CANV | 0.860 | 1.640 | down |
| CARA | 18.300 | 23.550 | up |
| CBDS | 2.200 | 3.670 | flat |
| CBGI | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| CBIS | 0.020 | 0.041 | flat |
| CGRW | 0.360 | 0.610 | flat |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.320 | 0.750 | down |
| DEWM | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| DIGP | 0.170 | 0.400 | down |
| DSCR | 0.000 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.009 | 0.015 | down |
| EDXC | 0.019 | 0.047 | down |
| ENCC | n/a | n/a | down |
| ENDO | 0.006 | 0.018 | down |
| ENRT | 0.017 | 0.037 | down |
| ERBB | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| ETST | n/a | n/a | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | up |
| FITX | 0.002 | 0.006 | down |
| FSPM | 0.000 | 0.250 | down |
| FULL | 3.060 | 3.660 | down |
| FWDG | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| GBLX | 0.270 | 0.460 | flat |
| GRCU | 0.000 | 0.004 | flat |
| GRNH | 0.023 | 0.067 | down |
| GWPH | 101.550 | 132.000 | down |
| HEMPD | 0.110 | 0.180 | down |
| ICBU | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| IGRW | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| IMLFF | 0.100 | 0.180 | down |
| INCC | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| INSY | 30.780 | 39.600 | down |
| ITNS | 0.001 | 0.005 | down |
| KAYS | 0.067 | 0.187 | flat |
| LATF | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| LXRP | 0.098 | 0.205 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.035 | 0.074 | down |
| MDBX | 0.050 | 0.087 | down |
| MDCN | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MDRM | 0.016 | 0.051 | flat |
| MINE | 0.002 | 0.005 | down |
| MJMD | 0.000 | 0.015 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| MJNA | 0.041 | 0.055 | down |
| MNTR | 0.507 | 0.928 | down |
| MYEC | 0.010 | 0.015 | down |
| MYHI | 0.013 | 0.188 | down |
| NDEV | 0.016 | 0.053 | down |
| NMUS | 0.620 | 1.600 | down |
| NRTI | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| NTRR | 0.022 | 0.046 | down |
| OGRMF | 0.208 | 0.337 | down |
| OSLH | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| OXIS | 0.015 | 0.027 | down |
| PHOT | 0.010 | 0.030 | down |
| PLPL | 0.109 | 0.177 | down |
| PMCB | 0.080 | 0.129 | down |
| PNTV | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| PZOO | 0.004 | 0.008 | down |
| QEDN | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| REDG | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| RSSFF | 0.030 | 0.100 | down |
| SING | 0.005 | 0.012 | flat |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.082 | 0.165 | down |
| SRNA | 0.160 | 0.330 | up |
| STEV | 0.049 | 0.072 | flat |
| TAUG | 0.000 | 0.005 | down |
| THCZ | 0.051 | 0.013 | down |
| TRTC | 0.100 | 0.165 | flat |
| TURV | 0.710 | 1.11 | up |
| TWMJF | 1.100 | 1.380 | down |
| UPOT | 0.080 | 0.270 | down |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| VAPE | 0.088 | 0.275 | down |
| VAPR | 0.000 | 0.050 | down |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VHUB | 0.024 | 0.045 | up |
| VPCO | 0.069 | 0.840 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.001 | down |
| WDHR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| WOGI | 0.005 | 0.013 | flat |
| XTRM | 0.001 | 0.004 | down |
| XXII | 0.430 | 0.780 | down |