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Bigger Picture – Page 469 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bigger Picture

Livestox, Aug 21 2015…Don’t look so surprised.

Friday”s Livestox was pretty comprehensive. We discussed the following stocks in this order:

RAD — (resistance question)

SPX — market top now obvious to all

TWTR — opportunity to bottom around 24

SCTY — Atractive short, just getting started

TSLA — not attractive short or long

GPRO — stll bearish and targeting at least 47

BABA — under 70 next targets 59.55 and 49.55

AMZN — An attractive long-entry if the market turns back up

GOOGL — Another attractive long-entry to participate in a broader market rally

FB — Still in an uptrend, so not an attractive short

FEYE — Not interested in long or short, pulled back too sharply

AAPL — Starting next downleg targeting sub-100

CBDS — Triple from my mention on Tuesday

CBIS — Will be monitoring for a bottoming pattern

VAPE — Descending Triangle has broken lower

MCIG – Under .035 targets .021 and .017

TRTC — Patience with re-entry, could test .09 handle again

SRNA — Will look for bottoming potential at .16

BLPG — warming up to this

GWPH — Bearish, still returning to my sub-100 target despite a couple of bounce

INSY — Not going to be bullish for awhile

CARA — The topping issue is starting to become obvious

GLD

OIL

Well, it’s hit the fan,

Well, it’s hit the fan, hasn’t it. The topping pattern is breaking lower, and the only question seems to be, “how much lower?” That’s easy. Buckle up, and join us for Livestox this afternoon at 1:30 ET.. We’ll also follow-up on my recent mentions in the Activity Feed and the Universe.

Login here by1:30pm ET
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm

Here are recent posts if you haven’t checked in awhile, and for the Marketfy search engine to index.
casjf — SUNE – support & resistance Posted 1 week ago
casjf — TSL – Support & resistance Posted 1 week ago
Rod-David — SUNE — I’m not expecting this area to be the bottom, But there is significant resistance at 16.45 that should be tested regardless off the resolution. Posted 6 days ago
Rod-David — TSL — Room up to 10.65-11.25 before suggesting more than a corrective bounce underway. Meanwhile, any lower low under 8.75 would likely extend to new lows near 6 Posted 6 days ago
Jo B — Rod Surna is still in that uptrending channel. Is ur resistance still around .23? Thanks Posted 6 days ago
Rod-David — SRNA — Get through .185-.190 and then .23-.24 would be in-pllay Posted 6 days ago
Josey — Hi Rod , NUGT is back to 3.80, good time to go long and if so how close of a stop Posted 6 days ago
guanito — VPOR pop. Posted 6 days ago
Josey — / Look’s like we are @ the line in the sand now on gold. Posted 6 days ago
Rod-David — NUGT — Gold’s pullback yesterday and today must resolve up without delay by noon Monday to confirm it was not on its way down another $15. Gold will probably be down that extra $15 by noon Monday if this pullback isn’t already resolving up by then. Similarly, 3.75 should define NUGT’s pullback low Posted 6 days ago
guanito — high noon Posted 6 days ago
Rod-David — VPOR — I love the liquidity, but the price action isn’t really a pattern, so today’s surge isn’t necessarily a breakout with any predictive value. Posted 6 days ago
guanito — Tku – good weekend all Posted 6 days ago
Jo B — thanks Rod. have a great weekend everyone Posted 6 days ago
Jo B — Rod if i remember correctly u also run a currency blog? Can i ask ur opinion on the dinar and dong please? Posted 5 days ago — “Edited”
Rod David — Currently, I cover currencies as part of the market timing blog. I’ve never looked at any country’s dinar, and I assume you mean the Vietnamese dong. Posted 4 days ago
Jo B — yes the Vietnamese dong and the Iraqi dinar. rumor has it that Trump bought a boat load of the latter so I’m wondering what all the fuss is about. Posted 4 days ago
Jo B — Thank u for the current Universe too Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — That’;s an awesome thesis ;) Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — TRTC — Patience is a virtue… The objective to test the range’/s lower-end at .10 is now being fulfilled. Now I’m monitoring for a long-entry. Buying this dip is difficult with volume being so strong. Closing back above.13 is otherwise the only current parameter. Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — SRNA — Still surging. But now pullbacks must hold .185 as support to maintain the potential up to .24 Posted 4 days ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — TRTC — Has formed a Descending Triangle, so another test of the .09 range seems likely. Reacting up aggressively back above .113 at that point would be bullish. Posted 4 days ago
Josey — Hi Rod, USO off a fresh low and recovering 14.25 or above a buy signal (Today) or would it need to close over 15.00? TY Posted 4 days ago — “Edited”
Jo B — SRNA looking pretty strong Posted 4 days ago
guanito — Its high noon. Do you know where your metals are? :) Posted 4 days ago — “Edited”
Josey — guanito – I’m selling now. Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — SRNA — Fulfilling its .24 objective. Closing back under .215 would signal a bigger corrective dip is underway Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — USO — The ongoing series of lower lows and lower highs is persisting even today. The same day that contains a new trend low cannot also reverse momentum up. After today, assuming today’s close isn’t under all prior lows, too, a buy signal would be able to trigger. Posted 3 days ago
Josey — Rod, is RAD required to retest the high? Looks like its @ the line in the sand here and volume is dropping off. Posted 3 days ago
Rod-David — RAD — Closing above 9.15 would target new highs at 9.65 and 9.95 Posted 3 days ago
guanito — Me too Josey. Sld SIL for 25 ticks. Got paid @ .22 SRNA. Posted 3 days ago
guanito — should have said – “do you know where your bullion is?” Posted 3 days ago
casjf — NLNK – is this a descending triangle breaking falsely higher before descending lower? Posted 3 days ago
fennecby — hey Rod.
How’s TISA looking to you now? Posted 3 days ago
KiteGradient — Great info on SRNA over the past couple weeks Rod Posted 3 days ago
Rod-David — NLNK – I see it less as a descending triangle, and more as a falling wedge. The break higher seems valid, just needing confirmation from a second consecutive higher close. Posted 3 days ago
Rod-David — TISA — June’s high was a second consecutive higher high, and last week’s low was a second consecutive higher low, which define an uptrend. Surging over the past several sessions is credible for reversing up, and likely to be recovered in case of a reaction down. Posted 3 days ago
Rod-David — KiteGradient, SRNA — ;) Posted 3 days ago
fennecby — thanks Rod. Posted 3 days ago
Jo B — Rod SRNA did close under .215 yet continues to look ok today. U still think a dip down is where its heading? Posted 3 days ago
Jo B — actually I’m wrong, SRNA closed at .225 yesterday. Posted 3 days ago
Rod-David — SRNA – Overlapping its pullback limit at yesterday’s close wasn’t terribly reassuring. Closing above .24 is very much needed to prove the rally’s momentum remains intact. Posted 3 days ago
Josey — Hi Rod, Do you think CDE is worth a long nibble @ 3.25 – 3.50 + or – Posted 2 days ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — CBDS — I’ve been tracking this as it slid into potential support at 1.15. Volume remained heavy while the last downleg was consolidated at its lows. And now it’s up sharply today. I’m still monitoring, and might provide a long-entry soon. Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — CDE — I still like it, but would prefer this pullback test 3.15-3.25 Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — SRPT looking over extended to you, or still liable to run? Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — SRPT — I certainly wouldn’t short an uptrend. But the restrained optimism of “sawing” through prior resistance around 36 does suggest that a more explosive upleg targeting the 45 area is possible Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — got it, thanks. Posted 2 days ago
Jo B — tu sir Posted 2 days ago
Scotty B — CDE: Would closing above $4 on good volume would indicate recovery in tact? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — CDE — 33.92 would suffice as the last corrective bounce resistance, and above it must be a new rally leg. But keep in mind this leg is already getting extended, I first mentioned it here at around 3.11. So. probing 3.92 and closing above 3.92 might need to take advantage of having reversed the trend to allow a corrective dip Posted Yesterday
Josey — To soon to nibble FEYE sub 42? Posted Yesterday
Josey — lot’s of bargains across the board out there today, hard not to start buying or nibbling :) Posted Yesterday
Josey — Could gold be a 3 day surge candidate? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — FEYE — While this area had been an attractive pullback objective, it’s taking much too long to absorb it and resolve up. I would want to look at it again Monday following expiiration. Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — Gold — Yes, this could very well become a 3-day surge. There’s reason to consider today’s high as having fulfilled near-term buying pressure, but probing above it aggressively tomorrow morning would be vulnerable to a near-term peak Posted Yesterday
Scotty B — CDE: Thanks, took profit. COP: is bouncing off 52 week low, went long this morning. Do you see this rally continuing? Or this more of a dead cat bounce? Posted Yesterday — “Edited”
fennecby — Does ELTK look like it’s bottomed and ready to surge? Posted Yesterday
Josey — Sorry, one more on my bargain hunting adventure :) Looking long LOCK. TY Posted Yesterday
casjf — LiveStox today or tomorrow? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — Livestox tomorrow Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — ELTK– I like the Cup & Handle bottom. Get out above 1.25 resistance and an eventual test of 2.25 could lie ahead. Posted 23 hours ago
Rod-David — LOCK — This pattern doesn’t tend to appear where there isn’t some substantial issue still playing out. That said, a corrective bounce would be likely to peak around either 10.50 or 12.50. No bounce is required, that’s just where I would consider shorting Posted 23 hours ago
casjf — KITE – support? Posted 23 hours ago
fennecby — thanks. Posted 23 hours ago
Rod-David — KITE — broke out from a falling wedge in May, and went on to probe above the wedge. Now the 52.85 breakout point is being retested. So, the wedge’s ~45 low should be probed Posted 21 hours ago
Brett-ster — Rod, DIS looking ugly. Can you tell me where support is? Thx Posted 3 hours ago
casjf — AAPL – today’s support? Posted 3 hours ago
Rod-David — DIS — 94.45-95.20 is “lower prior highs” where there is potential for an obligatory bounce, perhaps to fill the gap back up to ~122. Not much support below that. Posted 2 hours ago
Rod-David — AAPL – “Today’s support” as in a target below? Posted 2 hours ago
casjf — AAPL- sorry, bad joke, as in support gets lower every day. But yes, target below is a better description. Thanks! Posted 2 hours ago
casjf — And last one for now, SCTY – could the target below be as low as $39? Posted 2 hours ago
Rod-David — SCTY — The target could be 37.75 or 29.70 Posted an hour ago
fennecby — CARA rolling over? Posted an hour ago
Rod-David — for awhile mow Posted 58 minutes ago
fennecby — yeah, but today looks like it’s considering jumping off a cliff, INSY-style. Posted 54 minutes ago
Brett-ster — Looks like everything is jumping off a cliff. Mindless panic? I’m moving to the sidelines. Posted 49 minutes ago

Stock market

A stock market or equity market is the aggregation of buyers and sellers (a loose network of economic transactions, not a physical facility or discrete entity) of stocks (also called shares); these may include securities listed on a stock exchange as well as those only traded privately..

Stocks can be categorized in various ways. One common way is, by the country where the company is domiciled. For example, Nestlé and Novartis are domiciled in Switzerland, so they may be considered as part of the Swiss stock market, although their stock may also be traded at exchanges in other countries.

At the close of 2012, the size of the world stock market (total market capitalisation) was about US$55 trillion.[1] By country, the largest market was the United States (about 34%), followed by Japan (about 6%) and the United Kingdom (about 6%).[2] This went up more in 2013.[3]

A stock exchange is a place or organization by which stock traders (people and companies) can trade stocks. Companies may want to get their stock listed on a stock exchange. Other stocks may be traded “over the counter”, that is, through a dealer. A large company will usually have its stock listed on many exchanges across the world.[4]

Exchanges may also cover other types of security such as fixed interest securities or interest derivatives.

The Universe, week of Aug 17 2015… Looking past the leeches.

Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||

The past couple of week”s my comments here have remarked on various anecdotal pockets of improvement. The blood-letting had at least slowed. But we might not be too far from seeing the leeches fall off.

This past week saw only a couple of higher-profile stocks needing to recalculate their supports. Several tested support and reacted up. Several new charts have begun forming compelling patterns (BLPG, LXRP, STEV), and at least one prior pick extended its performance (SRNA) so predictably that I was able to call attention to it well before the rally resumed.

None of which should be confused as a recovery. The percentages of performing stocks must improve for several consecutive weeks for the anecdotal observations to be replaced by an actual market call.

But would anyone have thought the sector”s stabilization could have begun simultaneously with two of its highest-profile components (GWPH, INSY) falling sharply?

For now, suffice it to say that the patient may be ready to begin recovery soon.

Marijuana Stock Universe for August 17, 2015
Reference this table during stock reactions
4-week # up: 6 5.94%
trends* # flat: 13 12.87%
# down: 82 81.19%
*The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks.
symbol support resistance 4-week trend
ACGX 0.000 0.003 down
AERO 1.000 1.950 down
AGTK 0.000 0.009 down
AMMJ 0.125 0.272 down
ARNA 3.100 3.770 down
ATTBF 0.035 0.075 down
AVTC 0.000 0.400 down
BLOZF 0.130 0.340 down
BLPG 0.015 0.086 down
BNRDF 0.600 0.740 flat
BRDT 0.012 0.048 down
BTFL 0.071 0.232 down
CAFS 0.001 0.011 down
CANL 0.750 1.250 down
CANN 0.330 1.160 down
CANV 0.860 1.640 down
CARA 18.300 23.550 up
CBDS 0.670 1.550 down
CBGI 0.000 0.005 down
CBIS 0.007 0.018 down
CGRW 0.360 0.610 flat
CHUM n/a n/a down
CNAB 0.320 0.750 down
DEWM 0.001 0.003 down
DIGP 0.170 0.400 down
DSCR 0.000 0.025 down
EAPH 0.005 0.011 down
EDXC 0.019 0.047 down
ENCC (axxu) n/a n/a down
ENDO 0.006 0.018 down
ENRT 0.017 0.037 down
ERBB 0.001 0.003 down
ETST n/a n/a flat
EXMT 0.000 0.004 up
FITX 0.002 0.006 down
FSPM 0.000 0.250 down
FULL 3.060 3.660 down
FWDG 0.000 0.002 down
GBLX 0.270 0.460 flat
GRCU 0.000 0.004 flat
GRNH 0.023 0.067 down
GWPH 101.550 132.000 flat
HEMPD 0.110 0.180 down
ICBU 0.000 0.003 down
IGRW 0.000 0.002 down
IMLFF 0.100 0.180 down
INCC 0.000 0.002 down
INSY 30.780 39.600 flat
ITNS 0.001 0.005 down
KAYS 0.067 0.187 flat
LATF 0.000 0.001 down
LXRP 0.098 0.205 flat
MCIG 0.035 0.074 down
MDBX 0.050 0.087 down
MDCN 0.000 0.001 down
MDRM 0.016 0.051 flat
MINE 0.002 0.005 down
MJMD 0.000 0.015 down
MJMJ 0.000 0.001 down
MJNA 0.041 0.055 down
MNTR 0.507 0.928 down
MYEC 0.010 0.015 down
MYHI 0.013 0.188 down
NDEV 0.016 0.053 down
NMUS 0.620 1.600 down
NRTI 0.000 0.002 down
NTRR 0.022 0.046 down
OGRMF 0.250 0.337 down
OSLH 0.000 0.001 down
OXIS 0.015 0.027 down
PHOT 0.010 0.030 down
PLPL 0.150 0.220 down
PMCB 0.080 0.129 down
PNTV 0.001 0.007 down
PZOO 0.004 0.008 down
QEDN 0.000 0.003 down
REDG 0.000 0.003 down
RFMK 0.000 0.002 down
RSSFF 0.030 0.100 down
SING 0.005 0.012 flat
SKTO 0.000 0.004 down
SPRWF 0.107 0.165 down
SRNA 0.140 0.230 up
STEV 0.049 0.072 flat
TAUG 0.000 0.005 down
THCZ 0.051 0.013 down
TRTC 0.100 0.165 flat
TURV 0.710 1.11 up
TWMJF 1.420 1.860 down
UPOT 0.080 0.270 down
USEI 0.000 0.003 down
VAPE 0.230 0.410 down
VAPR 0.000 0.050 down
VGPR 0.000 0.002 down
VHUB 0.024 0.045 up
VPCO (1:5) 0.663 1.960 down
VPOR 0.000 0.001 down
WDHR 0.000 0.002 down
WOGI 0.010 0.022 up
XTRM 0.001 0.004 down
XXII 0.430 0.780 down