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Bigger Picture – Page 470 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bigger Picture

summary

Miss Kitty — Looking to go long NUGT, what are the relevant levels and a good entry price please? Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — NUGT — Almost any price down here is as valid as another in the same range, so long as new lows under 2.83 are avoided Posted 2 days ago
guanito — couple of new prospects: LEOM, TACT – need a blessing from the rabbi. :) Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — Mazel! Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — LEOM – The correction from July”s retest of June”s high seems to have ended, next targeting .65 and .76 so long as .41 holds as support Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — TACT – A lot of resistance around 7.75. If the basing has actually ended, then price should almost literally explode higher through 7.75-8.35, surging steeply. Continuing any higher from here without being aggressive would be suspicious. If a bottom is in, then the next higher objective would be 11-11.75 Posted 2 days ago
guanito — Tku Posted 2 days ago
guanito — Tku Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — GPRO and BABA — The two most vulnerable charts right now, especially of concern with the broader market”s overnight slide not yet rejected and on its way to recovery this far [past the open. Posted 2 days ago
Tony 48.75VAPEs — Rod. Wondering how to play TRTC under the assumption that the quarterly results tomorrow are good? You said wait for .10 or over .16 on news. The latter looks likelier after good news today and conf call announcement tomorrow… If it rallies tomorrow where is the first big resistance??? Posted Yesterday
guanito — Hi rod – STEV – back from the dead, or just ranging until resistance is pierced? Tku. Posted Yesterday — “Edited”
Rod-David — TRTC — Closing back above .14 ahead of an earnings announcement would suggest the news was being greeted from a position of strength. Otherwise, the .10-.16 range remains in control Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — STEV — Volume patterns aren”t impressive during the recent bounce. But the bounce can test .06 or even .075 while still being only a temporary corrective bounce. Posted Yesterday
guanito — tku Posted Yesterday
guanito — Good morning! Posted this on the other site but they”re a little myopic over there. Going to be an exciting day – metals up, dow down, bonds making new highs because of China, and all that”s shaking in the cannabis space! Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — GPRO and BABA — The two stocks I listed here after yesterday”s open as being among the weakest appearing… BABA is now testing 71.50 support, down 7 points from the mention. Closing above 73.65 would signal this downleg had likely ended… GPRO — Testing support at this morning 55.40 low, but still targeting 54.30, mentioned yesterday around 62.50. Posted Yesterday
Josey — Morning all. Rod does the Money flow act before on balanced volume or in tandem? (Most cases?) Posted Yesterday
casjf — VAPE – is this a capitulation going on or is this the beginning of the next downturn? Posted Yesterday
Josey — Today, tomorrow a good time to add to RAD position? TY Posted Yesterday
casjf — KMI – is this the potential bounce starting? Posted Yesterday
casjf — SCTY – Still think this could go to 37.50 from here? it broke 47.40, but looks like it may try to get back above it, but still early in the day… Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — Money Flow and OBV don”t act, each reflects the same price and volume information, so they lag equally. Is this in reference to a particular stock? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — VAPE — A descending triangle is now forming, which points lower,but not necessarily as capitulation. A lot of selling pressure was expended today already before even touching recent lows, let alone piercing them. Capitulation doesn”t happen within a range. Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — RAD — Today”s reaction down is threatening to reject the recent probe of fresh highs. That would create a “failed Ascending Triangle.” Might be a better day to sell or to short than to buy Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — LMI — Last week”s 31.05 low attacked last March”s lows, and reacted up aggressively. That seems more like an obligatory bounce, A little further firming today is now attacking resistance at 33.50. Its recovery could target 35.60, but there is no other bullish pattern. Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — SCTY — That was a big rejection last week after retracing much of the latest downleg. Natural support around 48 might trigger a reaction, but volume is expanding into this test of the lower-end of the range which suggests a new downleg is underway Posted Yesterday
Josey — The Money flow and OBV i”m finding in the oil sector stocks. RAD i”m confused :( So I should have sold the other day. What is the final straw on keeping this up leg alive. Posted Yesterday — “Edited”
Miss Kitty — NUGT up about 20% in past two days. What are relevant levels now for going long now? Posted 23 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — RAD — “Should have bought” or “should have sold” isn”t determined by whether the stock subsequently rose of fell. It”s not wholly irrelevant, but there”s a missing link. That is what your goal is, and your risk tolerance, your holding period, whether you establishing a position or adding, etc. If your strategy for achieving those goals isn”t working, then the strategy might be wrong. But executing on your strategy is always what should be done. Posted 23 hours ago
Rod-David — NUGT — The last attractive long-entry predated your asking about this previously, so there was no parameter other than just to buy it with a stop under the lows. There”s still no attractive long-entry, but pullbacks must now hold 3.80 as support Posted 23 hours ago
fennecby — morning Rod. AERO anywhere near a TRTC-like bottom?
(it”s at a ridiculous P/S of about 0.55, with imminent profitability, but no one seems to care). Posted 23 hours ago
Rod-David — AERO – There”s a lot off selling pressure satisfied in the .1.15-1.45 area, the upper-end of which is now being tested. Posted 23 hours ago
Miss Kitty — Thanks for the update. I”m a day late and a dollar short as usual. :-( Posted 22 hours ago — “Edited”
guanito — Me too. Bid 4:12 on the open. Long SIL from Monday. Posted 22 hours ago
fennecby — thanks. How”s WYY looking here? Interesting effort yesterday and today to shake off sellers, no? Posted 20 hours ago
Rod-David — SRNA — Has formed a Symmetrical Triangle during the past week that would be triggered above.14 and targeting .185 Posted 20 hours ago
Rod-David — WYY — A lot of support around 1.41-1.45 but no bullish reason to be retesting it, so not much preventing breaking under it to 1.00 Posted 20 hours ago
Miss Kitty — guanito — I”m starting to feel like John the Baptist after Herod”s daughter in law danced. I keep getting my head chopped off for no apparent reason. Posted 19 hours ago
Rod-David — ;) Posted 19 hours ago
guanito — Lol me too Posted 13 hours ago

It”s been a busy week.

It”s been a busy week. BABA and GPRO short suggestions on Monday, pointing out SRNA”s ascending triangle yesterday, and all of the instant stock chart analysis requests below. Meanwhile, Gold looks like it has bottomed, and Crude Oil is looking for resolution. I don”t know what that means, but we”ll try to figure it out at today”s Livestox:

Login here by12:15pm ET
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm

Miss Kitty — Looking to go long NUGT, what are the relevant levels and a good entry price please? Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — NUGT — Almost any price down here is as valid as another in the same range, so long as new lows under 2.83 are avoided Posted 2 days ago
guanito — couple of new prospects: LEOM, TACT – need a blessing from the rabbi. :) Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — Mazel! Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — LEOM – The correction from July”s retest of June”s high seems to have ended, next targeting .65 and .76 so long as .41 holds as support Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — TACT – A lot of resistance around 7.75. If the basing has actually ended, then price should almost literally explode higher through 7.75-8.35, surging steeply. Continuing any higher from here without being aggressive would be suspicious. If a bottom is in, then the next higher objective would be 11-11.75 Posted 2 days ago
guanito — Tku Posted 2 days ago
guanito — Tku Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — GPRO and BABA — The two most vulnerable charts right now, especially of concern with the broader market”s overnight slide not yet rejected and on its way to recovery this far [past the open. Posted 2 days ago
Tony 48.75VAPEs — Rod. Wondering how to play TRTC under the assumption that the quarterly results tomorrow are good? You said wait for .10 or over .16 on news. The latter looks likelier after good news today and conf call announcement tomorrow… If it rallies tomorrow where is the first big resistance??? Posted Yesterday
guanito — Hi rod – STEV – back from the dead, or just ranging until resistance is pierced? Tku. Posted Yesterday — “Edited”
Rod-David — TRTC — Closing back above .14 ahead of an earnings announcement would suggest the news was being greeted from a position of strength. Otherwise, the .10-.16 range remains in control Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — STEV — Volume patterns aren”t impressive during the recent bounce. But the bounce can test .06 or even .075 while still being only a temporary corrective bounce. Posted Yesterday
guanito — tku Posted Yesterday
guanito — Good morning! Posted this on the other site but they”re a little myopic over there. Going to be an exciting day – metals up, dow down, bonds making new highs because of China, and all that”s shaking in the cannabis space! Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — GPRO and BABA — The two stocks I listed here after yesterday”s open as being among the weakest appearing… BABA is now testing 71.50 support, down 7 points from the mention. Closing above 73.65 would signal this downleg had likely ended… GPRO — Testing support at this morning 55.40 low, but still targeting 54.30, mentioned yesterday around 62.50. Posted Yesterday
Josey — Morning all. Rod does the Money flow act before on balanced volume or in tandem? (Most cases?) Posted Yesterday
casjf — VAPE – is this a capitulation going on or is this the beginning of the next downturn? Posted Yesterday
Josey — Today, tomorrow a good time to add to RAD position? TY Posted Yesterday
casjf — KMI – is this the potential bounce starting? Posted Yesterday
casjf — SCTY – Still think this could go to 37.50 from here? it broke 47.40, but looks like it may try to get back above it, but still early in the day… Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — Money Flow and OBV don”t act, each reflects the same price and volume information, so they lag equally. Is this in reference to a particular stock? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — VAPE — A descending triangle is now forming, which points lower,but not necessarily as capitulation. A lot of selling pressure was expended today already before even touching recent lows, let alone piercing them. Capitulation doesn”t happen within a range. Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — RAD — Today”s reaction down is threatening to reject the recent probe of fresh highs. That would create a “failed Ascending Triangle.” Might be a better day to sell or to short than to buy Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — LMI — Last week”s 31.05 low attacked last March”s lows, and reacted up aggressively. That seems more like an obligatory bounce, A little further firming today is now attacking resistance at 33.50. Its recovery could target 35.60, but there is no other bullish pattern. Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — SCTY — That was a big rejection last week after retracing much of the latest downleg. Natural support around 48 might trigger a reaction, but volume is expanding into this test of the lower-end of the range which suggests a new downleg is underway Posted Yesterday
Josey — The Money flow and OBV i”m finding in the oil sector stocks. RAD i”m confused :( So I should have sold the other day. What is the final straw on keeping this up leg alive. Posted Yesterday — “Edited”
Miss Kitty — NUGT up about 20% in past two days. What are relevant levels now for going long now? Posted 23 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — RAD — “Should have bought” or “should have sold” isn”t determined by whether the stock subsequently rose of fell. It”s not wholly irrelevant, but there”s a missing link. That is what your goal is, and your risk tolerance, your holding period, whether you establishing a position or adding, etc. If your strategy for achieving those goals isn”t working, then the strategy might be wrong. But executing on your strategy is always what should be done. Posted 23 hours ago
Rod-David — NUGT — The last attractive long-entry predated your asking about this previously, so there was no parameter other than just to buy it with a stop under the lows. There”s still no attractive long-entry, but pullbacks must now hold 3.80 as support Posted 23 hours ago
fennecby — morning Rod. AERO anywhere near a TRTC-like bottom?
(it”s at a ridiculous P/S of about 0.55, with imminent profitability, but no one seems to care). Posted 23 hours ago
Rod-David — AERO – There”s a lot off selling pressure satisfied in the .1.15-1.45 area, the upper-end of which is now being tested. Posted 23 hours ago
Miss Kitty — Thanks for the update. I”m a day late and a dollar short as usual. :-( Posted 22 hours ago — “Edited”
guanito — Me too. Bid 4:12 on the open. Long SIL from Monday. Posted 22 hours ago
fennecby — thanks. How”s WYY looking here? Interesting effort yesterday and today to shake off sellers, no? Posted 20 hours ago
Rod-David — SRNA — Has formed a Symmetrical Triangle during the past week that would be triggered above.14 and targeting .185 Posted 20 hours ago
Rod-David — WYY — A lot of support around 1.41-1.45 but no bullish reason to be retesting it, so not much preventing breaking under it to 1.00 Posted 20 hours ago
Miss Kitty — guanito — I”m starting to feel like John the Baptist after Herod”s daughter in law danced. I keep getting my head chopped off for no apparent reason. Posted 19 hours ago
Rod-David — ;) Posted 19 hours ago
guanito — Lol me too Posted 13 hours ago

The week is starting out

The week is starting out on a high note. Get it? Sorry. Anyway, the open gapped up and the balance of the session has trended upward pretty much relentlessly. Could this leg extend to new highs? Perhaps, but the ongoing topping pattern no longer requires it before launching a substantial decline. I described the technical situation on Saturday, and you can view its recording here:
http://www.anymeeting.com/nrodpywxnayx/E950D780884731

Meanwhile, here’s the past week of Activity Feed comments by subscribers and me, so that they’ll appear in the Marketfy search engine:

Brett-ster ­ Hi Rod. Any parameters on ALRM, or is it still too early to tell? Posted 1 week ago
Rod-David ­ ALRM — Yes, it is too early for this pattern to be predictive. Having said that, there seems to be an inflection point at 18.55 which would be validated by rallying sharply if it is pierced. Posted 1 week ago
Miss Kitty ­ Interested in AMZN as a short. What are the parameters and considerations, please? Posted 1 week ago
Rod-David ­ AMZN — While my 579 target has proved very resistant, that’s different from reversing the trend down. And especially with a stock rallying strongly, trying to bet against such wide enthusiasm can be very dangerous. I would consider selling a retest of 579, but only with the plan to cover on a higher close. Otherwise, another stock in a downtrend would be a better short-sale candidate. Posted 1 week ago
guanito ­ Good morning. wow wow – big day today! I may have to catch the re-run but would like to hear thoughts on /ZB , SPX, and /GC please. Only need it once weekly in broad strokes. Tku. Posted 1 week ago
Jo B ­ please look at a good entry for SRNA. ty Posted 1 week ago
Rod-David ­ SRNA — I’ve been watching this testing of .09, volume patterns are very impressive. At this stage, I would look at it more as where to sell, since the only other thing the pattern can do bullishly is to surge. And would not want to be long under .07. Posted 1 week ago
casjf ­ NLNK – ebola vaccine 100% effective. Support & target? Posted 1 week ago
Josey ­ MCIG getting hammered. Cant find any news. Posted 1 week ago
Jo B ­ ty Posted 1 week ago
Josey ­ Rod, Do you see a quick technical trade on KEG? TY ( 1.00 – 1.20??) or is the story over? Posted 1 week ago ­ “Edited”
casjf ­ CVX – posted worst profit in 13 years. People starting to buy at low. Bottom fishing suggestions, if any? Posted 1 week ago
Rod-David ­ NLNK — Closing above 54.50 could extend the rally to 58.60 and higher. Holding today’s test of 54.50 would not be helpful. Posted 1 week ago
Rod-David ­ KEG =– Besides the vulnerability to a falling knife suddenly spiking up, I don’t see anything predicting a recovery anytime soon Posted 1 week ago
Rod-David ­ CVX – Bounces in this pattern are likely to be shallow as the drop essentially saws its way through the prior low. If bounces aren’t shallow, then I would begin considering the potential for a bottom Posted 1 week ago
Josey ­ RAD just can’t close above 9.06. Is time running out? Time to sell position? Posted 1 week ago
Jo B ­ thanks Rod for slapping us in the face with reality..lmao!! appreciate it! Posted 1 week ago
Scotty B ­ Good morning all. I found this blog post that may be informative to those with an interest in macro economics. I feel he does a good job at pointing out structural deficiencies that are starting to show up in the charts. The challenge is to find pockets of hyper growth for long positions , while allocating a porting of your portfolio to the larger trend (long or short) with options or ETF’s http://northmantrader.com/2015/07/26/the-big-ba… Posted 6 days ago ­ “Edited”
Scotty B ­ I thought I should add that I do not have a membership in the paid section of the Northmantrader nor do I have any interest in the site. I only found the publicly shared blog post informative. Posted 6 days ago
Josey ­ Hi Rod, ECIG is still rolling forward. Next target to close over .43? Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David ­ ECIG — .43 is still a big resistance point. But its valid recovery would next target the .55-.60 area. Posted 5 days ago
Scotty B ­ Hi Rod, looking real hard at the SPXS. Chart looking like a double bottom and economic news continues to worry the street. What do you think? Also, thanks for SRNA coverage. Looks good today. Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David ­ I had invited everyone during Livestox to a Saturday Review, which discussed the broader market’s bigger picture. Here’s the recording’s link:
http://www.anymeeting.com/nrodpywxnayx/E950D887… Posted 5 days ago
Scotty B ­ Thanks for the link, I could not make the Saturday Review. Posted 5 days ago
Josey ­ It seems as I look @ multiple pages on my watch list that a lot of stocks across the board have had a nice correction already and if it keeps up I will probably become the contrarian. Posted 5 days ago
casjf ­ CARA – target? Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David ­ CARA – The pullback retested its opening gap, but didn’t fill the gap back to lower levels before extending higher. That’s not optimal, which lackluster volume patterns reflect. Strong resistance above at 23.45-24.00 doesn’t require a retest, but extending above it would be difficult at this stage. Posted 4 days ago ­ “Edited”
Miss Kitty ­ Is NFLX a good short here for a put option or is it too risky to go against the uptrend? Posted 4 days ago ­ “Edited”
Rod-David ­ NFLX – I am never in favor of shorting new highs. Especially with options, which depend on momentum trending. New highs might be appropriate for beginning to build a stock position, but certainly not with anything that is expiring, and not as a trade. Stocks already in downtrends are appropriate candidates to consider. Posted 4 days ago
Miss Kitty ­ Ok thanks for your prompt reply. I’m assuming APPL would be more appropriate for a put option since it is now in a downtrend? Posted 4 days ago ­ “Edited”
Rod-David ­ AAPL — Right, breaking back under 122.25, or bouncing to test it. Posted 4 days ago
casjf ­ OXIS – vol starting to get more interesting. Still needs to get above .0225 for a buy? Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David ­ OXIS — Volume is still entirely too low to consider the pattern as accumulative. But there’s a little expansion on this blip-up to .0175. So, it might be appropriate from a very speculative perspective to nibble here. But I would not be long on a close under .015 Posted 4 days ago
fennecby ­ Hey Rod.
Back into TRTC inadvisable at this stage? Closed under your 13.5 support, so likelier to retest lows before (if) tripling?
And would appreciate your take on GLUU post what seemed like good earnings… (but greeted with selling). Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David ­ TRTC – Until there’s some sort of stabilization, rejection of the expanding volume dip (today), or a test of support (like a lower prior high), the only actionable entry currently available is .16 Posted 3 days ago
Rod-David ­ GLUU – There’s no unfinished business above to rely on attracting price back up. Meanwhile, it looks like post-close action is filling a gap below, but that won’t be bullish without being done intraday, and then also closing back above a relevant resistance. Posted 3 days ago
Jo B ­ Thanks Scotty. I will read it Posted 3 days ago
fennecby ­ thanks Rod x2. Posted 3 days ago
Brett-ster ­ Rod, where do you see support on DIS? Posted 3 days ago
Rod-David ­ DIS — Either closing today and tomorrow back above 112 would be likely next to fill the gap back to yesterday’s close, or else potential support at 106.45 must hold to avoid a much deeper pullback targeting 95-98.50 Posted 3 days ago
Brett-ster ­ Thanks Posted 3 days ago
Josey ­ Time to add to a long RAD position? Posted 3 days ago
Tony 48.75VAPEs ­ Rod… Was wondering if there’s another good spot for MDBX to bounce on its way to 0 like it did at .10? Also could you take a look at NTRR? All chart indicators look quite positive to me, but not sure if I want to enter due to low volume. Thanks! Posted 3 days ago
Rod-David ­ RAD — Why add here? A lot of resistance at 9.45-9.50, and I’d rather stalk a close above it or else a pullback to support Posted 3 days ago
Rod-David ­ MDBX — I was monitoring the pattern until today. The new low puts any other potential bounce at least one week out, depending on this new low not extending any deeper Posted 3 days ago
Josey ­ I thought RAD was a buy over 2 consecutive closes over 9.06. I own it for a long time @ a much lower price so, I will take profits then @ end of day. What is your pullback support? Posted 3 days ago
Rod-David ­ RAD — Resistance isn’t necessarily equivalent to a target. The breakout suggests a much bigger trend is developing. The question I addressed was “Time to add a long RAD position.” I described a couple of trading strategies sdesigned around my pattern interpretation for trading. For position-building, a confirmed breakout IS the time to buy/add. Posted 3 days ago
Josey ­ OK, Thank’s . Posted 3 days ago
casjf ­ AMSG – what is the new support? Posted 3 days ago
Rod-David ­ AMSG — If 78.35 doesn’t hold a test, then 73.95 could be tested Posted 3 days ago
casjf ­ KMI – You were right: $32.85 proved to be pretty flabby support — next lower level(s)? Thanks. Posted 3 days ago
Rod-David ­ KMI – Nothing as strong as $32.85
;) Posted 3 days ago
Jo B ­ great. I should make it today! Posted 2 days ago
Scotty B ­ I will not be able to make it live, but will watch replay. Would you mind commenting on SPY and is there still room for a higher high before correcting? As you know I am really interested in the SPXS. Also, thanks for SRNA updates, it as been very good to me. I am looking forward to your analysis. Finally, USCR has been very good to me. Can you look at the chart and provide a quick Fib extension on the recent new high? Thanks Posted 2 days ago
Tony 48.75VAPEs ­ Would you look at NTRR? Looks somewhat similar to SRNA without the volume. Thanks Posted 2 days ago
Boston ­ Please take a look at FEYE, TASR, PPCH & GTLS if you have time…Thank you Posted 2 days ago
Josey ­ Is ECIG pullback limit .38 now? Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David ­ 24 stocks in 51 minutes… It’s not a record, but it will do. Recording coming soon. Posted 2 days ago
casjf ­ FEYE – Yow! Watch it flying up with the news that Russia hacked the Pentagon! Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David ­ GWPH — My sub-100 target has now been met. Bounces can test the 107 area without even beginning to suggest momentum may be reversing up. Posted Yesterday
Scotty B ­ Thanks Posted Yesterday
casjf ­ DUK – I was in this at 72.55 and then sold it the day after earnings after a head fake down. Now of course it’s going up, but not much volume. I’m inclined to stay on the sidelines a bit longer given the market to see if it goes back down to 72.55 or lower. What do you think? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David ­ DUK – The 30-year Treasury’s high today just fulfilled an outstanding target, so interest rates might head up soon if that holds. This is a large element to Utilities, which would be a concern. Meanwhile, 75.50 could be probed up to 77.80 before suggesting that momentum is reversing up Posted Yesterday
Jo B — Thanks Rod! I luv that Doors song btw Posted Yesterday
casjf — TWTR up on news of renewal of agreement w NFL. 2 insiders also purchased shares. What is support and resistance and what does it need to get above to be interesting? Posted 4 hours ago
Rod-David — TWTR – 2.90 – 26.85 fulfills some near-term buying pressure. But this isn’t an accumulative pattern, and it’s aggressively searching new lows, so there isn’t really support. Posted 4 hours ago
Josey — Is it to soon to nibble on BLCM or wait for 2 closes in the 20’s? TY Posted 4 hours ago
Brett-ster — Rod, where do you see resistance on NTDOY? Posted 3 hours ago
Brett-ster — and KORS? Posted 3 hours ago
Rod-David — BLCM – Nothing in the chart suggests a need to rush into longs. Posted 3 hours ago
Rod-David — NTDOY — It’s tough with ADRs to be as specific, but a very big longer-term resistance is being tested today. That doesn’t at all equate to being a sell signal. Posted 3 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — KORS – 45.25 – 47.00 resistance. Closing above 48.10 would start to signal a bigger bounce underway. Posted 3 hours ago
Brett-ster — Thank you kindly Posted 3 hours ago
fennecby — DDD – just a Dead Dat Dounce? Or has it finally found a bottom? Posted an hour ago
Rod-David — DDD – This is still a downtrend of lower lows and lower highs. Closing above 14.95 would suggest at least a bigger bounce targeting 15.45 underway Posted 29 minutes ago

Saturday Review’s recording (for 8/8/15) … Getting real.

The week”s ultimate decline tested the pullback limit that would keep alive a path to new highs. Oh, and then that pullback limit broke. It didn”t break decisively, mostly because of its timing. During this weekend”s Saturday Review, we discussed the specific price action that would invalidate Friday”s break or confirm it, and the consequences to either. We also reviewed individual stock chart analysis requests, listed above the chat”s transcript.

MP4 LINK || ilinc link

AAPL, SUNE, CNX, PAAS, SAND, NGD, TNET, TREE, BOFI, SC

08/08/2015 09:35:03 MK: gm
08/08/2015 09:36:08 Bill G: good
08/08/2015 09:36:10 charlie: hi0
08/08/2015 09:36:43 Mark Glezer: gm
08/08/2015 09:41:29 MK: that looks awfully familiar
08/08/2015 09:42:48 MK: yes
08/08/2015 09:43:40 MK: i meant yesterdays action
08/08/2015 09:43:58 MK: the 3rd”s vs the 8ths
08/08/2015 09:52:11 MK: there are a lot of people putting their necks out now saying any bounce from here should be faded
08/08/2015 09:53:28 Mark Glezer: if 2035 objective will be in play on Mon would u expect anyy particular behavior on the path there?
08/08/2015 09:55:36 Mark Glezer: meaning in can still take a few days or a week with interim bounces right?
08/08/2015 09:59:04 MK: interesting tidbit
08/08/2015 09:59:37 MK: Since 2000 when DJIA closes lower for 7 consecutive sessions (Win rate 80% avg REturn 4.5%)
08/08/2015 10:00:05 MK: Since 1970 (Win rate 42% average return -0.14%)
08/08/2015 10:00:55 MK: if long
08/08/2015 10:00:58 MK: on session 8
08/08/2015 10:01:15 MK: after 1 month
08/08/2015 10:01:27 MK: but if you include 1970
08/08/2015 10:01:31 MK: to now
08/08/2015 10:01:32 MK: so
08/08/2015 10:01:39 MK: its massively clustered
08/08/2015 10:01:57 MK: 1970 – 2000 that number is a 20% win rate
08/08/2015 10:02:08 MK: and a return of -3.7%
08/08/2015 10:02:31 MK: QE vs non QE
08/08/2015 10:02:45 MK: guy on twitter called Chad Gassaway
08/08/2015 10:06:45 Rod David: m r: Could the overlap action at 2084 and 2077 be an analog for what we may still see aroud 2099 – 2105…meaning, could we still see testing above 2099 – 2105 to the same degree that we”ve seen testing below that area?
08/08/2015 10:08:33 MK: can we do some einhorn positions?
08/08/2015 10:08:39 Rod David: m r: Haven”t we been anticipating seeing the Dow coparatively outperform as evidence of the long term uptrend finally being done (not JUST the new appearance of relative weakness in NDX)?
08/08/2015 10:09:15 MK: SUNE
08/08/2015 10:09:17 MK: CNX
08/08/2015 10:09:28 MK: I got long both of those yesterday
08/08/2015 10:09:31 MK: just for S&G
08/08/2015 10:10:38 Rod David: m r: I thought that the concept was big money that HAS to be in stocks, rotates from speculation into DOw
08/08/2015 10:14:19 MK: I still believe that RUT is a better indication of speculation than NDX
08/08/2015 10:20:56 Bill G: Schaeffer had a similar study on mkt after 7 consecutive losses with 1day,1wk,2wk,1 month performance. The avg 1day,1 wk was neg and 2wk,1month was positive. The problem was in all time frames less than half the cases had positive returns. The results were skewed by positve occurences had greater % gains than the% losses on the dn occurrences.
08/08/2015 10:22:24 Mark Glezer: we have been looking for new highs for awhile but every time area above 2100 is met with a very aggressive sell-off and now NDX is finally underperforming. Perhaps we have seen the high in ES?
08/08/2015 10:27:29 Bill G: Do these guys do a lot of coal?
08/08/2015 10:29:21 MK: can we do some miners?
08/08/2015 10:29:23 MK: PAAS
08/08/2015 10:29:49 MK: SAND
08/08/2015 10:31:44 MK: NGD
08/08/2015 10:32:04 MK: Also TNET
08/08/2015 10:35:12 MK: I feel like there”s a lot of optionality here in SAND
08/08/2015 10:35:25 MK: sigh
08/08/2015 10:35:35 MK: rod you are such a negative nancy
08/08/2015 10:37:16 MK: RE: Gold CEF is a gold/silver holding company in Canada. Its Discount to NAV is now at its highest point ever.
08/08/2015 10:37:30 MK: Which atually in the past
08/08/2015 10:37:39 MK: has worked well when it diverges with gold price action
08/08/2015 10:37:41 MK: at turning points
08/08/2015 10:38:02 MK: RE:NGD I ACCUMULATED here
08/08/2015 10:38:08 MK: if you want signs of accumulation
08/08/2015 10:39:42 MK: OH WOW
08/08/2015 10:39:58 MK: NO
08/08/2015 10:40:03 MK: that was just a musing
08/08/2015 10:40:09 MK: at 26
08/08/2015 10:40:15 MK: was when i last looked at it
08/08/2015 10:40:19 MK: nevermind
08/08/2015 10:40:37 MK: TNET isn”t gold
08/08/2015 10:40:48 MK: they do HR outsourcing for SF tech bubble
08/08/2015 10:42:48 MK: OH wait
08/08/2015 10:42:52 MK: is there time for 2 more stocks?
08/08/2015 10:43:06 MK: TREE and BOFI
08/08/2015 10:43:14 MK: I can”t wait to short those two
08/08/2015 10:43:55 MK: Lending tree is a middleman for mortgages
08/08/2015 10:44:10 MK: and BOFI does LIAR loans
08/08/2015 10:45:47 MK: hahah
08/08/2015 10:46:00 MK: neither chart is shortable
08/08/2015 10:46:07 MK: just wanted to get them on board with levels
08/08/2015 10:46:10 MK: so when i bring them up
08/08/2015 10:46:56 MK: complex ascending triangle in aprl/may
08/08/2015 10:48:12 MK: both stocks have 20% short interest
08/08/2015 10:48:40 MK: oh
08/08/2015 10:48:42 MK: also
08/08/2015 10:48:43 MK: SC
08/08/2015 10:48:44 MK: sorry
08/08/2015 10:48:50 MK: no
08/08/2015 10:48:52 MK: just the first 2
08/08/2015 10:48:58 MK: SC has been at the forefront
08/08/2015 10:49:03 MK: of Subprime lending
08/08/2015 10:49:05 MK: for autos
08/08/2015 10:49:10 MK: yeah
08/08/2015 10:49:12 MK: crushed it
08/08/2015 10:49:12 MK: thanks
08/08/2015 10:49:24 MK: got 3.25 points off that buy
08/08/2015 10:50:09 MK: now i want to short this
08/08/2015 10:50:12 MK: but dont” want to chase it
08/08/2015 10:50:17 MK: so bounce?
08/08/2015 10:50:29 MK: high 24”s
08/08/2015 10:50:36 MK: high 25s
08/08/2015 10:50:36 MK: ok
08/08/2015 10:52:05 Mark Glezer: thx much
08/08/2015 10:52:14 MK: thanks for fielding all the stocks
08/08/2015 10:52:21 Bill G: thanks
08/08/2015 10:52:22 charlie: tks