Bigger Picture

Livestox covered the broader market with a discussion of SPX, Crude Oil with a discussion of USO, and Gold with a discussion of GLD. Then we discussed the following stocks in this order:

NMUS

GWPH

CARA

MDBX

BLPG

TRTC

OXIS

AMBA

For lunch today, how about a big portion of Livestox?
Starting at 12:15pm ET, we”ll be at
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm

Optional teleconference instructions (required for iPad and tablets):
1-605-562-0020
Meeting ID 976-912-682 #

Boston — Hi Rod Could you please take a look at FEYE, ANTH & SNSS…Thank You. Posted 1 week ago
Josey — Rod, I have been on the road last 2 week and wondering if you could give an updated check up on RAD. Th Posted 1 week ago
fennecby — BED.V definitely on the move. Canadian – as regards vol – not American.
OWCP as well. Posted 1 week ago — “Edited”
fennecby — also a look at EMAN would be appreciated (bouncing off 6.18% retrace of that last upleg).
fennecby — thanks Rod.
Re BNRDF – I see why you won”t trade the Canadian issue but not why you won”t analyze it (or rather why you”d bother analyzing BNRDF); volume suggests BNRDF is only a faded, tardy reflection of BED.V – has to roughly follow it but doesn”t set the trend.
And on the same measurement (Apr 21 to Jun low) BED.V is at least on the 61.8% level if not slightly above it. Posted 1 week ago
Rod-David — BNRDF — Last week”s bounce definitely underperformed the Vancouver listing, while the Loonie surged. The local listing is still within its noise range. I do like the volume pattern, and would find any follow-through to be credible for reversing the trend back up. Posted 1 week ago
fennecby — cool, thanks.
KiteGradient — Sage Posted 1 week ago
guanito — Tku. Posted 1 week ago
Jo B — Thanks Rod! I think the sector is going on summer vacation, which is better than a permanent vacation! Posted 1 week ago
Josey — Hi rod, wonder if you could do a health check on BAK (long). TY Posted 6 days ago
Rod-David — BAK — Volume patterns are a little suspicious for not continuing to expand with price”s break higher after April 22. That leg has been retraced entirely to its origin at 8. Back above 9.60 should remove much remaining concern, and probably extend sharply above it. Meanwhile, closing under 8 would be bearish. Posted 6 days ago
fennecby — Morning Rod.
Would you take another look at RDHL now? Good results on phase 3 yesterday, huge surge, then settled back to just under all-time closing high. Is this a good place to enter a long position, or rather a trap? And if good for long, what would now be the target, after meeting your previous one at 20.90? Posted 6 days ago
Rod-David — RDHL — Yesterday was a breakout. A second consecutive higher close would confirm. That higher close would preferably be above yesterday”s 22.22 high, or above 21.60, but at least above the 20.90 target. Its potential would be to 23.75 or 28.35. Meanwhile, dipping first must hold 17.05, to maintain the rally”s momentum. Posted 5 days ago
fennecby — thanks Rod. Posted 5 days ago
Brett-ster — Rod, any new parameters on CARA? Where”s resistance? Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — CARA — The most recent comments pointed out the Downtrending Pivotal resistance off the highs that was being broken, and the shallow inverted Head & Shoulders pattern being whose resistance was being tested (which is to say that its right neckline was forming). That broke higher yesterday and is trying to extend today. A second consecutive higher close would confirm and target new highs. Closing at all back in yesterday”s range would undermine the breakout and could be bearish. Posted 5 days ago
Brett-ster — Got it. Thank you Posted 5 days ago
Brett-ster — TWTR: is there any support? Trying to decide whether to cut the cord before it gets even uglier. Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — TWTR — I don”t have anything bullish until probing new lows and basiing. Posted 5 days ago
Brett-ster — Thanks again Posted 5 days ago
fennecby — how about targets on WYY breakout? Posted 5 days ago
fennecby — and JAKK above the 8.75 that you had previously? Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — WYY – That”s not really a breakout, as this is still well within the middle of an ongoing range. But the volume pattern suggests testing 1.82 / 1.95 Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — JAKK – Closing above 9 would next target 10.08. Posted 5 days ago
Josey — Hi Rod, What time chart would be used when an oversold RSI should retest the low. 10 day? Posted 5 days ago
fennecby — cool, thanks. Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — Josey — That ”s only an intraday phenomenon as far as I can tell. Posted 5 days ago
guanito — Hihi – Higher targets for CARA, or that”s it? Took profits already. Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — CARA — Confirming the break higher would target 14.00-14.85 Posted 5 days ago
guanito — tku. Posted 5 days ago
guanito — Hihi again – Higher targets for GBLX, ot that”s it? Still long. Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — GBLX — Above .50 would target .63 and .71 Posted 5 days ago
guanito — tku Posted 5 days ago
Brett-ster — Rod, BITCOIN, volume looks to be increasing on this surge. Do you have any parameters? Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — Bitcoin – Starting to trend above downtrending resistancve within a Symmetrical Triangle that has been forming since January”s low. Targeting 353 so long as the 230 pullback limit holds Posted 4 days ago
Scotty B — HI Rod, thanks for you input on CHK last week, I was able to get out before it”s second leg down. I have a couple of new positions to look at. WLL looked like it”s pullback ended in the $33.50 range and I jumped in. Was wanting to add more above $35, which it met, but I am still waiting. Do you see conviction in the current volume for WLL? Posted 4 days ago
Scotty B — Next stock: BABA, $86 more or less held, and it has now pushed up. I am in at $86.45, now wait for confirmation on volume above $90? Do you agree $90 needs to be taken out for trend up to be confirmed? Posted 4 days ago — “Edited”
Scotty B — Final stock, WWAV making new highs on volume. Solid business, do you see the run continuing? I do not have a position, but looking to initiate one on a pull back. Posted 4 days ago
Rod David — WLL — The pattern seems to be at the early stages of basing. I would be reluctant to add to an already well-priced position until volume began expanding again. Posted 4 days ago
Rod David — BABA — I”m not bullish on this, and that predates its favorable reaction to earnings. But that earnings surge failed initially to close above prior highs. And now the extension higher has been retraced entirely to that point. Closing back above 92 on expanding volume would start to suggest otherwise, but meanwhile I would expect selling to get steep under 84. Posted 4 days ago
Rod David — WWAV — It”s been a nice run, and might extend, but there”s a lot of resistance starting to be tested now at 49.50-50.50. If not exceeded on volume, a pullback to under 40 would be likely. Posted 4 days ago
Scotty B — Thanks for the input Rod! Posted 4 days ago
fennecby — WYY – should I be looking to sell today on a 3rd day surge set up? And if so, what sort of resistance is there over your 1.95?
Now if there”s a 3rd day surge, and if it closes over 1.95 after 18 months or so of ranging, is it more likely to keep going up? Or in other words, if the 3rd day”s surge is also a breakout, does it influence the set up in any way? Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — WYY — There”s a near-term risk of momentum peaking for awhile if the surge extends for a third consecutive session. Especially if the surge isn”t maintained through the close. Posted 4 days ago
fennecby — that much I know, the more specific question question being whether surging into a breakout (and closing above the relevant level) makes it more likely to extend further.
(and also regarding next points of resistance over 1.95) Posted 4 days ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — The third-day surge setup is not an either-or. It only reveals an intensified risk to establishing a meaningful peak. Outlasting that third day doesn”t make the current leg any likelier to extend any higher, and just a little likelier to recover a little sooner from the next correction. Posted 3 days ago
Brett-ster — Rod, PG looks like it”s turning around with volume modestly increasing. Thoughts? Posted 3 days ago
fennecby — ok, thanks. Posted 3 days ago
Rod-David — PG — The near-term pattern certainly looks attractive, but not yet so much in the bigger picture. Near-term resistance at 82.30-83,00 is now being attacked, and its recovery on expanding volume would make the pattern more bullish than corrective. Posted 3 days ago
Josey — Would it be wise to sell long positions tomorrow or @ the open if the market open gap”s up or goes up to a new intraday high? TY Posted 3 days ago
Rod-David — That”s not going to be the same answer for all stocks. But as far as the session”s unfolding sentiment, not gapping up (much) at this stage would be likelier to trend higher intraday. Posted 3 days ago
kit650kr — YO ROD look at CELG. love the news Boss Posted 3 days ago
kit650kr — YO ROD, can u plz set new parameters for ANIP and HZNP. thanks Posted 3 days ago
Rod-David — CELG – A second consecutive higher close today would signal momentum was reversing up. But closing back under 115 would reject yesterday”s bounce and target fresh lows Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — ANIP — Testing resistance at a higher prior low and filling a gap at 60.75-61.75. Closing back under 59.60 would undermine the bounce, which would reverse momentum down under 55.40. Extending higher would target 69.25-70.50 Posted 2 days ago
Brett-ster — BIIB is on the move on increasing volume. Rod, when does this one become attractive? Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — HZNP — Big resistance being challenged now at 34.20-35.25. Its inflection pint should either reverse down sharply or else accelerate sharply higher. This allows tightening a trailing stop as the resistance is probed. Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — BIIB – Volume remains well within its average pace. But closing above 408.10 would target 427.90 and potentially 466.40. Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — PSTI broke downtrending resistance a while ago, but never got follow-through: just riding the same trendline from above. Any point in staying long here? Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — Is masochism a valid point? Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — PSTI — A fresh low under 2.30 is essentially required in this pattern, although back above 3.05 on expanding volume could be re-bought Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — sold. thanks. Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — Is today beyond SFUN”s maximum allowed pullback for staying long? Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — SFUN — Holding above 8.25-8.50 support keeps alive the recovery potentjial Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — thanks. Posted 2 days ago
kit650kr — YO ROD, can you enlighten us on MPC and ETP. we have long positions. Posted 2 days ago
kit650kr — here”s a weird one for u ROD. don”t know if u can help DAD. BXLC parameters plz. Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — MPC — Multi-month ascending triangle likely to break higher eventually. However, extended narrowing ranges often break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction. So, a new high would be vulnerable to dramatic rejection. Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — ETP — Nothing attractive at this stage. Would be interested in revisiting it above 62 Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — BXLC — That”s not really a pattern, there are no consolidations during the relentless decline. Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — Rod – re MPC – “extended narrowing ranges often break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction.” – same as S&P, basically, no? Posted 2 days ago
kit650kr — i didnt like BXLC but now I can show the older generation your advice too. Thanks Boss Posted 2 days ago — “Edited”
kit650kr — thanks ROD.. got it MPC Posted 2 days ago
kit650kr — I like accumulating ETP in the $45 to $50 range and stash the 7% + divs. better than bonds right? Posted 2 days ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — I can”t speak to the dividend dependability, only to the trading setup. Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE! Posted 2 days ago
kit650kr — i got u. i appreciate everything u do Boss. Dividend dependabilty for the last 15 years so far BOSS! Posted 2 days ago
kit650kr — Happy Father”s day to al u guys with kids out there. Posted 2 days ago
Jo B — thanks for the insight Rod Posted Yesterday
guanito — Tku. Posted 2 days ago
kit650kr — YO ROD, good morning.! can you set parameters for TIK plz Posted Yesterday
fennecby — morning.
What”s your stop on TASR?
And any new target on WYY if it confirms the breakout today? (assuming yesterday”s final minutes of trading were indeed a break – over your 1.82-1.95 range and above the 2 year range). Posted Yesterday
kit650kr — ROD, is PLKI a head and shoulders with a BO? Posted Yesterday
Rod David — TIK — Pullbacks need to hold 5.80 to maintain the past week”s rally leg. Closing back under 5.40 would negate it, and delay the next rally effort. Upside targets would be 7.85, 8.85 and 10.35 Posted Yesterday
Rod David — TASR — Having tested its recent high without closing above it, closing back under 32 would start to signal a deeper corrective dip underway. Posted Yesterday
Rod David — PLKI — I don”t see a head & shoulders, what dates/prices are you using for its shoulders and neckline? Posted Yesterday
fennecby — thanks – and WYY? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — WYY — Closing above 1.95 would be the breakout Posted Yesterday — “Edited”
fennecby — did that yesterday.
targeting? Posted Yesterday
kit650kr — ROD…PLKI, 6/14 thru today? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — WYY — I don”t see that as a breakout, not while it is still being overlapped. So long as 1.82 holds as support, higher highs could touch 2.14 and 2.38 Posted Yesterday
fennecby — so what you”re saying is you need a full day”s trading over 1.95? Posted Yesterday
kit650kr — ROD..i know I suck at charts! that”s y we pay u! LOL. thanks for TIK BOSS Posted 23 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — WYY — Not necessarily a full day”s trading, but not a last-minute surge above it. Probing above it intraday could be considered a trigger, so long as the position were exited upon closing back under it. But the breakout hasn”t yet happened. Posted 23 hours ago
fennecby — Got it, I think. So if it closes today over 1.95 all”s well, but now that it”s probed above it, closing under it would be vulnerable down to… where? Posted 23 hours ago
Rod-David — It”s not an either-or. There is a consequence to triggering the signal, but no consequence to not triggering it. Posted 23 hours ago
fennecby — can”t say i quite get it…
When are we starting with the new crowd-picking-program? Posted 21 hours ago — “Edited”
fennecby — and where (if) would you consider buying EMAN? Posted 20 hours ago
Rod-David — The life-like order entry was launched Thursday, and now the email alerts are being created. Posted 20 hours ago
Rod-David — EMAN — I would want to buy that pattern cheaply, attacking the lower-end of its range, or else pay up for momentum. Currently, it is in the midrange, so there are no parameters Posted 20 hours ago
fennecby — thanks x2.
So when should we start getting involved? Posted 20 hours ago
Rod-David — ? Posted 19 hours ago
fennecby — not in EMAN, obviously – in the crowd-picking thing. Posted 19 hours ago
Rod-David — Nothing to do until the emailing is programmed, which should be a matter of days. Posted 19 hours ago
fennecby — ok. Posted 19 hours ago
kit650kr — OMG…my MCIG is green!! Posted 19 hours ago
Scotty B — Comments on AMBA? I see a Fib retrace to $94.30 needing to be re-tested. If this holds and accumulation volume confirms, go long?
Rod-David — That looks right. But we won”t have any degree of confidence that the pullback limit is holding until there is enough of a reversal up, which would be to close above 95.50

Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||

There was a miniscule change in this week”s percentages of stocks above or below their 4-week moving averages. Frankly, I was surprised the delta was so low. But that”s how it netted out, after adjusting several stocks downward for abandoning their recent surges, and adjusting a couple upward for recently surging.

Death by 999 cuts.

News doesn”t seem to have been bearish for the sector”s fundamentals. Perhaps the most bearish observation to make is that one of the two original institutionally-qualified equities has evaporated almost entirely. Not GWPH but MDBX. It”s the only component to have threatened* triple-digits (to the left of the decimal point).

MDBX could be the sector”s poster child, if it weren”t already occupied being its canary. It peaked at 93.50 on January 8, 2014 just after a CNBC segment featured them. *The stock had traded 215 in November 2012, but I don”t consider that in my sector analysis since the “sector” had limited components.

Anyway, a more common effect of rotation out of leadership is to benefit laggards. But MDBX has led the way down. And now, the other original GWPH large-cap has been joined by a later entry, INSY. A universe of two is too small for concocting reliable conclusions, but one cannot help but notice that both are on the sector”s medicinal side, as opposed to recreational.

INSY just began reaping the rewards of its stock split, surging to new highs. GWPH is currently challenged by a test of 117-120 support whose break is being delayed by outstanding potential to first print 132. Will their eventual corrections see capital rotate into the sector”s lagging medicinal players? I suspect that will be our focus in The Universe sooner, rather than later.

Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||

If there”s any single lesson that I”ve reiterated through this service, it is to honor the trend.

“The trend is your friend,” as goes the widely-attributed Wall Street saying. (“Until it isn”t,” as the saying is finished.) The uptrend is a lot more friendly, but at least the downtrend warns you not to buy.

What is a trend? It is a series of higher highs and higher lows (uptrend), or lower lows and lower highs (downtrend). In the latter”s case of a downtrend, between each lower low is a lower high, which I also call the “prior high.”

So, if there”s any single corollary to the single lesson, it is this: The prior high is resistance.

Even in an ongoing series of prior highs, an occasional bounce might pierce it. This would allow the downtrend to give the impression of reversing its trend back up. Perhaps it is — if that prior high is pierced after a period of basing. But not usually when the downtrend”s cadence remains intact.

While bouncing prematurely back above a prior high is almost surely temporary, it can also be a harbinger. Monitor those for a low-volume pullback, and a higher low (preferably holding a 61.8% retracement of the first recovery attempt”s upleg).

Basing is more bullish than trying to rally too soon — especially when the downtrend”s cadence remains intact. Often, the alluring bounce is triggered by a press release, which just happens to come at the downtrend series” predictable cycle low. I mean, come on.

In bullish a sector, laggards can have better results at suddenly reversing their downtrends. Whether playing catch-up, or benefiting from rotation out of leadership. This is not currently a bullish sector. So, view the bounces skeptically.