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Bigger Picture – Page 477 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bigger Picture

Livestox, Jun 12 2015

Here”s the recording to Friday”s Livestox. We began by updating the launch of our Investment Policy Committee product. Then I spent some time describing the market”s overall pattern and likely paths from here. Part of that included a discussion of the Greece issue”s influence.

We also discussed Crude Oil and Gold, which are responding directly to the Greece issue”s economic and currency impacts. Other stocks we reviewed are listed below in order:

SPX

USO

GLD

BLPG

MDBX

VAPE

OXIS

GWPH

TRTC

FEYE

ANTH

SNSS

RAD

BNRDF

Livestox is today due to

Livestox is today due to travel. Join us at the following link at 12:15 to review the market, Gold, Crude Oil and individual stocks. Your stock chart analysis requests will be reviewed, too.

https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm

optional teleconference instructions (required for iPad and tablets):
1-605-562-0020
Meeting ID 976-912-682 #

Might the market have made

Might the market have made a near-term low? Asked another way, what if a near-term low isn”t forming here and now?

Firming overnight is suggesting that yesterday”s attempt to extend the decline may have gone a bit too far. That would be just in time, since the levels tested at Monday”s lows, and held at Tuesday”s close, are a last defense against adding another downleg to this decline.

Livestox is delayed until Friday due to travel, but post any stock chart analysis requests to this thread. Meanwhile, here are the requests and replies since last updating for the Marketfy search engine:

fennecby — thanks for that.
what do you think about NQ? What kind of entry today would be justified, and with what target in mind? Posted 5 days ago
Jo B — Rod.. more power to u on the Benzinga show this AM.. i will be working, so will there be a replay? Posted 5 days ago
Boston — Thank You! Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — NQ — Kind of late to buy this move at any attractive risk:reward entry. Working on a third-day surge setup that tends to peak for awhile. Resistance is at 5.55-5.75 or 6.35-6.45. Pullbacks now or later have room down to 4.25 Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — I”ll send a link to the radio show spot when I get it Posted 5 days ago
fennecby — kind of what i thought – thanks. Posted 5 days ago
fennecby — hmmm. But now that it hasn”t surged higher today, being the 3rd day, is it any more attractive on a 5% discount? Posted 5 days ago
fennecby — (obviously this is a general question for the next opportunity of the sort) Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — NQ — It”s too early to determine that the trending won”t try resuming today. But if it doesn”t, then a pullback would be that much more attractive since optimism wouldn”t have gotten out of hand Posted 5 days ago
fennecby — cool. Posted 5 days ago
fennecby — How surgical does a surge need to be? e.g.: NVMI. A while ago you set 12.95 as a potential target. It”s there now, on a third day up, breaking out into an all time high. But – the entire span of the move is just over 6% currently. Am I right to assume that this is different than a 20-30-40% 3 day surge that just begs for taking profits and walking away from the stock for a while? Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — NVMI — Yes, that”s not the spirit of a third-day move. Posted 5 days ago
kit650kr — YO ROD, Dad likes ANIP. Is this a reversal starting? He wants to start a position. Can u plz set guidance. Thank u! Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — ANIP — Depending on how quickly a pullback can develop, 52.25 would likely hold sooner rather than later, or else 51 might need to be tested, before resuming the rally. Closing under both would negate the recovery/reversal potential Posted 4 days ago
fennecby — AGEN broke out of your room for noise target. Long potential here? Posted 4 days ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — AGEN — May”s early drop worked itself out with a retest instead of extending down. That created buying pressure which got back to the 8 high, and is now probing above its room for noise above it. Volume is contracting, so a dip back down to 7.70 can”t be discounted before extending higher. Closing back under 7.50 would complete a Double Top and likely trend down aggressvely. Posted 4 days ago
fennecby — so you”d buy this only on expanding volume and a close above ??? and in that case, what would be the target? Posted 4 days ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — AGEN — I”m not saying that I would buy it, only describing the price action that could be bullish, and what would renew the selling Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — CARA — Firming into the weekend. More important, this setup is developing at the 9.75 intersection of “downtrending pivotal resistance” that would target 10.60 and 11.10 Posted 4 days ago
fennecby — ok then. and SHOS – interesting on pullback? Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — SHOS — Too recently renewed interest to be very trustworthy. I would consider buying a pullback to 7.25 Posted 3 days ago
fennecby — thanks. have a good weekend! Posted 3 days ago
Jo B — thanks Rod Posted Yesterday
kit650kr — YO ROD, ANIP can U set guidance for us plz? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — ANIP — Depending on how quickly a pullback can develop, 52.25 would likely hold sooner rather than later, or else 51 might need to be tested, before resuming the rally. Closing under both would negate the recovery/reversal potential Posted Yesterday
fennecby — morning. AGEN still rising pre-market – too extended to join or just starting a meaningful leg? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — AGEN — Since meaningful resistance is being probed aggressively on expanding volume, then the greater likelihood is that this is becoming a meaningful leg. Posted Yesterday
fennecby — and where would the next resistance be? Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — AGEN — The next higher resistance above 9.60 – is 10.75 Posted Yesterday
fennecby — thanks. Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — FEYE — Testing 51.45 resistance, which now requires pullbacks to hold 48.95 to maintain the rally”s momentum, targeting 60.60 Posted Yesterday
fennecby — holding fast to this one, thanks (-: Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — SIVB — New highs are within 2 points of the 144.25 target area. Now its pullbacks must hold 137.50 to maintain the rally”s momentum. It will be interesting to see whether attacking its target finds similar buying pressure being fulfilled in the Tech sector. Posted Yesterday
Rod-David — AAPL – Closing today back above 128.25-129.25 resistance would signal that the recent pullback has ended and that 140 is in-play. There isn”t otherwise much tolerance for much deeper of a pullback without it becoming a new downleg Posted Yesterday
kit650kr — Has anyone read about ANIP? Posted 23 hours ago
fennecby — read what, Kit? Posted 22 hours ago
fennecby — Rod – would you take a look at RDHL? Chipping away at resistance on ever-increasing volume. Seems bound back to the over-exuberant highs of June 2014? Posted 13 hours ago
Rod-David — RDHL — There”s still room for noise up to 17.80 before putting into play 2090. Meanwhile, dips must hold 14.70 to avoid reversing momentum down. Posted 7 hours ago
fennecby — thanks. Posted 7 hours ago
Scotty B — Looking at SFUN. If it closes above $8.65 on strong volume, recovery should continue? Also TSAR closing above $33 should help it”s continued run up? Thanks for the input :) Posted 4 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — OXIS – Has been firming back to .030 resistance, but on contracting volume that is starting to expand today. Closing above .033 would signal a new upleg underway. Otherwise, be careful if long on a close under .030 Posted 4 hours ago
Rod-David — SFUN — Volume patterns are already accumulative. Closing above 9 would put into play 11 and higher. Posted 4 hours ago
Rod-David — TASR – (I”m assuming you meant this, not TSAR, whose rule was toppled generations ago)… Closing above 33.85-34.00 on expanding volume would be very helpful to extending the rally considerably Posted 4 hours ago
Scotty B — Yes, funny. One more, I sometimes like catching the falling knife – I still have a few fingers left. I picked up CHK @ 12.95 The reason I picked it up is based on your training of looking for 2nd bottoms to form. This looked like a second bottom after falling under $14 Nat Gas looks like it is in a bounce. Commodity traders said $2.60 was a buy. Care to comment on CHK chart? Your input is most helpful. Posted 4 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — TRTC — Closing in on my longstanding 9-cent target, now diving to a 12-cent handle. There is some interim support at .121 Posted 3 hours ago
Rod-David — CHK — I would consider this more of a bottoming attempt. The first low was the falling knife. In any case, 13 is pivotal support, and could produce a bounce to 14.50. Closing above 15 on volume would be the first indication of the trend actually reversing up. Posted 3 hours ago
Scotty B — Thanks!! Your insights and second eyes are keeping me in the green. Posted 3 hours ago
fennecby — How”s JAKK looking to you? Has strengthened considerably since last we spoke of it. Posted 3 hours ago
Boston — Rod, PPCH seems to be breaking out, any guidance here would be of help. Posted 2 hours ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — JAKK – Volume patterns could be better, but the price pattern is accumulative Posted 2 hours ago
Rod-David — PPCH — The breakout was much lower around 05 on 5/27. The reaction down fulfilled a 61.8% pullback before resuming the rally. Today”s fresh highs. Closing above .10 would confirm the rally that is already underway. Posted 2 hours ago
Boston — Yes & that is when I bought in @ 0.051……..thank you….Next higher target would be? Posted 2 hours ago
Rod-David — PPCH — .15 is the next major attraction Posted 2 hours ago
Boston — That is an attraction I would like to visit…Thank you Posted 2 hours ago
Brett-ster — Rod, where do you see resistance on TSLA? Posted an hour ago
Rod-David — TSLA — Closing today above 258.75 would target 274.60 Posted an hour ago

Raising pullback limits in FEYE

Raising pullback limits in FEYE and SIVB as their rallies extend:

FEYE — Now up 20% from its last buy signal, and testing 51.45 resistance. This requires pullbacks to hold 48.95 to maintain the rally”s momentum, targeting 60.60

SIVB — Has come a long way since first covering it around 117.50. New highs are within 1 point of the 144.25 target area. Now its pullbacks must hold 137.50 to maintain the rally”s momentum. It will be interesting to see whether attacking its target finds similar buying pressure being fulfilled in the Tech sector.

The Universe, week of Jun 8 2015

Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||

There is no commentary this week due to travel.

Marijuana Stock Universe for June 8 2015
Reference this table during stock reactions
4-week # up: 12 12.00%
trends* # flat: 20 20.00%
# down: 68 68.00%
*The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks.
symbol support resistance 4-week trend
ACGX 0.000 0.003 flat
AERO 2.310 4.030 down
AGTK 0.008 0.022 down
AMMJ 0.360 0.570 down
ARNA 3.800 5.030 flat
ATTBF 0.035 0.075 down
AVTC 0.000 0.400 down
AXXU 0.037 0.140 down
BLOZF 0.130 0.340 down
BLPG 0.044 0.102 down
BNRDF 0.410 0.580 down
BRDT 0.032 0.094 down
BTFL 0.071 0.232 down
CANL 0.750 1.250 down
CANN 1.690 4.600 down
CANV 1.340 1.750 down
CARA 8.800 10.300 down
CBDS 1.830 5.630 down
CBGI 0.000 0.005 down
CBIS 0.027 0.038 down
CGRW 0.550 0.750 up
CHUM n/a n/a down
CNAB 0.530 0.750 flat
DEWM 0.002 0.004 flat
DIGPD 0.350 1.000 flat
DSCR 0.000 0.025 down
EAPH 0.008 0.013 down
EDXC 0.019 0.047 down
ENDO 0.016 0.025 up
ENRT 0.017 0.037 down
ERBB 0.003 0.007 down
ETST n/a n/a flat
EXMT 0.000 0.004 flat
FITX 0.005 0.012 down
CAFS 0.005 0.030 up
FSPM 0.000 0.250 down
FULL 3.100 3.640 down
FWDG 0.000 0.002 down
GBLX 0.270 0.460 up
GRCU 0.000 0.004 down
GRNH 0.023 0.067 down
GWPH 122.500 132.000 up
HEMP 0.016 0.025 down
ICBU 0.002 0.011 down
IGRW 0.000 0.002 flat
IMLFF 0.100 0.180 down
INCC 0.001 0.007 flat
INSY 59.750 67.550 flat
ITNS 0.006 0.011 down
LATF 0.000 0.001 down
LXRP 0.144 0.197 up
MCIG 0.055 0.084 down
MDBX 0.140 0.850 down
MDCN 0.005 0.022 down
MDRM 0.032 0.061 down
MINE 0.003 0.007 down
MJMD 0.000 0.015 up
MJMJ 0.001 0.003 down
MJNA 0.072 0.100 flat
MNTR 0.507 0.928 down
MYEC 0.012 0.027 down
MYHI 0.110 0.280 up
NDEV 0.040 0.165 down
NRTI 0.001 0.003 down
NTRR 0.025 0.050 down
OGRMF 0.304 0.615 down
OSLH 0.003 0.007 down
OXIS 0.023 0.033 down
PHOT 0.019 0.065 down
PLPL 0.220 0.315 up
PMCB 0.140 0.215 flat
PNTV n/a n/a down
PZOO 0.011 0.017 flat
QEDN 0.001 0.003 flat
REDG 0.000 0.003 flat
RFMK 0.000 0.002 down
RSSFF 0.069 0.266 down
SING 0.008 0.016 flat
SKTO 0.000 0.004 down
SPRWF 0.141 0.230 down
SRNA 0.080 0.140 down
STEV 0.050 0.067 down
TAUG 0.004 0.008 down
THCZ 0.130 0.255 up
TRTC 0.090 0.180 down
TURV 0.710 1.11 up
TWMJF 1.420 1.860 flat
UPOT 0.150 0.550 down
USEI 0.000 0.003 down
UTRM 0.000 0.000 down
VAPE 0.415 0.715 flat
VAPR 0.030 0.090 down
VGPR 0.000 0.002 down
VHUB 0.019 0.040 up
VPCO 0.300 0.480 down
VPOR 0.000 0.003 down
WDHR 0.000 0.002 down
WOGI 0.004 0.009 flat
XTRM 0.001 0.004 down
XXII 0.820 1.160 flat