Bigger Picture

I”ll be unavailable for the balance of the afternoon. Please feel free to continue posting stock chart analysis requests to the prior post, and I”ll review them overnight. Enjoy!

INVESTMENT POLICY COMMITTEE UPDATE
I am working with third-parties to adapt their virtual portfolios for our use, so that our limit and stop orders can be entered in a real-world manner, and so that subscribers will get “trade alert” emails for any change or fill. I”m very excited about this feature, and about the group aspect. Stay tuned…

LIVESTOX
Wednesday”s Livestox discussed the market”s ranging, and why at least one more higher high remains possible. We discussed Crude Oil and Precious Metals, too.

USO — My pullback target was attacked before an impressive rally returned to the original sell signal as resistance. Regardless, industry stocks are probably positioned for lower prices, so I wouldn”t let that be the reason not to buy operating companies.

GLD – Under 113.50 and 113.10 would target 110.25
– above 115.65 would target 117 and higher

SLV – Earlier weakness projecting follow-through

INSY — Forming a head & shoulders that would trigger under 58.40

TRTC – Volume doesn”t confirm this bounce, which could still test .16

VAPE — Above .45 and .55 would target .71-.73

GWPH — Bearish pattern forming that still has one more higher high, probably at 130-132 before reversing down

BLPG – Example of trusting the stock over the hype

OXIS — Another example of trusting the stock over the hype

TAUG — Recent bounce is impressive, and closing above .007-.008 would target .011 and .015

TURV — Closing above .84 would be vulnerable to extending sharply higher.

CGRW — Ascending Triangle is getting a little tight at the apex

ENDO — Rally is intact

PLPL – The clock is running on this patter resuming its rally

THCZ – Its recent performance made this a sort of gateway drug to the sector”s other stocks, so it”s of broad concern that its pullback is probing fresh lows.

REQUESTS:
AERI, CARA, CERU, PPCH, MYL

Livestox is today due to travel. Join us at the following link at 12:15 to review the market, Gold, Crude Oil and individual stocks. Your stock chart analysis requests will be reviewed, too.

https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm

optional teleconference instructions (required for iPad and tablets):
1-605-562-0020
Meeting ID 976-912-682 #

And here are recent posts in the Activity Feed to be included in the Marketfy search engine:
KiteGradient — SYT – Are you able run parameters on the latest move? Is it getting exhausted in anticipation of another takeover offer?
Posted Yesterday —
Rod-David — SYT – Since gapping up last month to ~84, the past several weeks have contained several intraday spikes up that eked out higher and higher highs. Each time that happens, recalculate the 61.8% difference between 84 and the latest high, which is the pullback limit that keeps alive the upside momentum
Posted Yesterday —
fennecby — so SPCB got within 8 cents of your suggested “buy the pullback,” then took off.
what do you do in such cases?
Posted 23 hours ago —
Rod-David — SPCB — I don”t like to chase. I would consider the pullback limit fulfilled and decide whether to be long, with a stop under 11.80
Posted 18 hours ago —
fennecby — got it, thanks. i hate chasing too.
Posted 18 hours ago —
KiteGradient — Thanks Rod
Posted 15 hours ago —
fennecby — is this looking double-toppish in GWPH?
Posted 14 hours ago —
Rod-David — GWPH — Double Top with April”s high? Possibly. Their interim upsloping consolidation that expended a lot of optimism my find that optimism sorely lacking just when it is needed most, in trying to sustain a fresh high at 136.
Posted an hour ago —
fennecby — thanks.
Posted just now

This market isn”t lacking volatility. It”s not lacking direction, either — it has plenty of those. The question isn”t whether “up” is still one of them, but whether there”s more “up” than “down.” We”ll review that during Livestox (which will be Wednesday, due to travel).

Meanwhile, here are recent Activity Feed posts so they can be included in the Marketfy search engine results.

proed — Please review SLB. Is the present pattern accumulative between $90-95 and would a test of support at the prior high range $88-89ish be a reasonable entry point for a position? thanks
Josey — Rod, when you said the market could start reversing down are you talking 1 or 2 day”s or a 10% correction over a period of time or more? Posted 1 week ago
Josey — and 502 stock in the S&P. I was late to the show, so thank you for the recording. Posted 1 week ago
Rod-David — Bigger reversal down, as opposed to briefer Posted 1 week ago
Rod-David — FEYE — Breakout today above downtrending resistance dating back to 3 months. It”s the upper-end of a Symmetrical Triangle, and volume is surging to confirm. Closing above 44.85 would be the minimal confirmation for today, then closing higher on Monday. Targeting 48.75 and 55.50 Posted 1 week ago
Josey — CYBR just refuses to get and close over 65, seems like it wants to go back to 60 or less :( Posted 1 week ago
fennecby — GTLS – low volume plunge that looks to be breaking down the bottom of an ascending triangle. Is this more likely a head fake on the way up, or a short opportunity? Posted 1 week ago
Rod-David — GTLS — Can you give me the time/date stamps for that pattern? I”m not seeing it. Thanks Posted 1 week ago
fennecby — May 7th till today. But I got it backwards of course; not an ascending triangle but rather… not sure it has a name, where the triangle seems to open rather than close up into the future. Posted 1 week ago
fennecby — better with a picture:
http://oi59.tinypic.com/sl0d1v.jpg Posted 1 week ago — “Edited”
Rod David — GTLS — Today”s volume was among the lowest, and today”s price action was contained entirely within the range. Nothing today had any impact on the pattern. Probing fresh lows on this level of volume would be likelier to bounce back into the range, if not also above it, than to extend down. Posted 1 week ago
fennecby — thanks.
And is the pattern that I pictured a pattern at all? with any consequences? Posted 1 week ago
Rod David — A pattern does have consequences. At this stage, I categorize it as a setup, and probing fresh lows would create a pattern with consequences as described above. Posted 1 week ago
fennecby — what I meant to ask was whether this faux triangle of mine, which goes in the opposite direction than regular triangles, starting narrow and growing larger, has a name in standard technical analysis. Posted 1 week ago
sal2 — Sorry to ask but where is “The Universe”? for this week? Posted 6 days ago
sal2 — Sorry forgot in the U.S. It”s a holiday tomorrow Posted 6 days ago
Jo B — thanks Rod Posted 5 days ago
guanito — Tku! Posted 5 days ago
kit650kr — Thanks ROD Posted 5 days ago
kit650kr — R U GUYS going to trade MCIG today should be GREEN Posted 5 days ago
Josey — Hi Rod, FEYE a buying opportunity 43.30 + -? Posted 5 days ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — FEYE — If it insists on dipping any deeper than 43.80, which is not required, then its support is 43.45-43.60 Posted 5 days ago
Jo B — Not me kit Posted 5 days ago
Jo B — Rod can u please review OGRMF on the next livestox? I”m thinking I may as well sell cuz it just keeps going down Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — OXIS — I warned last week that it was suspicious for the “Wolf” to be touting the stock while it was languishing at .030-.033, let alone for it to be probing lower. Today”s plunge should not be surprising.”There”s nothing technically predictive of a morning swoon like today. But closing back above .023 support would be the minimum requirement to suggest that the decline gained no traction for the effort. Posted 5 days ago — “Edited”
Rod-David — OGRMF — There”s nothing new in the pattern, and won”t be, not until closing beyond either end of a .35-.44 range, whose lower-end is being tested now. Posted 5 days ago
Rod-David — MINE — Attractive volume pattern as price reacts up today from last week”s test of April”s low. Posted 5 days ago
Jo B — thanks Rod! Posted 4 days ago
guanito — STEV – came within 1 tick of support. Looks like capitulation? Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — STEV — It”s much too shallow to qualify as capitulation, but it”s close enough to support that closing back above a prior high on expanding volume could run sharply higher. Posted 4 days ago
Josey — Rod, today”s action on RAD @ 8.63 filling today”s gap, buying opportunity, or a negative reaction? Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — RAD — I would like to see 8.60 hold as support (being tested now) if the gap up intends to resume its attraction. Posted 4 days ago — “Edited”
Josey — Thank You! Posted 4 days ago
Rod-David — RAD — 8.60 was the precise low, before reacting back up above prior highs. Big resistance is at 8.75. Closing above 8.80 would indicate the rally is extending higher. Posted 4 days ago
Scotty B — HI Rod. I have been fortunate with USCR entering in the low 20s. I would like to add to the position. Volume is weakening on current pullback. Does it look like sellers are getting tired? $36 looks like support. Would you wait for this to be tested or watch for +$40 on good volume before adding? Posted 3 days ago
Rod-David — USCR — Nice, I nominate you to the Investment Policy Committee…
I have support at 36.50 which must hold to avoid at least a deeper correction down to 32.30 or 29.50 Posted 3 days ago
Scotty B — Rod, Posted 3 days ago
Scotty B — Woops, thanks for the comment! Posted 3 days ago
guanito — Tku. Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — thanks on this, Rod.
A look today on one good egg and one bad?
FEYE closed yesterday above the FEB high on nice volume (though lower than what it had back then). I added some above your 44$ mark (bound for 70s, you said); any changed outlook in light of the wider market?
GTLS being the bad egg, or rather – me being the fool getting myself into a 16% hole instead of cutting it much sooner. So, any reason to keep it now? Close under 32.3 seem like a good SL under the circumstances? Posted 2 days ago
Brett-ster — Rod, what”s your view on TRIP? Recent lows in the high 60s. Are we headed back there? Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — TRIP — Its recent bounce held a test of 81.75-82.00 resistance instead of closing above it on volume. That makes this reaction down likely at least to test 69.50. Any lower would target 55 Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — FEYE — There”s no change to the pattern, but I liked buying it in the lower-40s more than in the upper-40s, unless volume were to expand on the higher highs. Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — 43.5 is my cost on FEYE.
and GTLS? (see above)
Meanwhile AGEN is back to the highs. Closing and confirming above $8 could send it where? Posted 2 days ago
Rod David — GTLS — 30.65 and 28.65 are likely next objectives. Recovering 36.70 first would suggest the correction had ended and the trend was reversing up already. Posted 2 days ago
Rod David — AGEN — The prior high”s retest has room for noise up to 8.35 before the recovery would suggest it”s not just forming a bearish Double Top. Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — thanks X2. Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — DATE on a 3 day surge? And would it be interesting on a pullback to, say, 7.89? Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — DATE — The third day should already reverse. Today is the fourth day, and it gapped up above yesterday”s highs, so its next peak need not be terminal. That next peak has potential to be at 9.25 Posted 2 days ago
fennecby — so if I reverse engineer it – if I saw this not pulling back yesterday, I should have gotten in where? At the close yesterday? Even before that? Or at the open today? Posted 2 days ago
Rod-David — That”s not really its purpose, as a continuation pattern. Rather, it offers advance warning of a rally ending. So, if yesterday had closed below the session”s mid-range, then reversing down today would have been likely. Also, it would be a long time before the third day high was ever exceeded. Posted 2 days ago — “Edited”
fennecby — thanks. have a good weekend! Posted 2 days ago
Jo B — just catching up now. thank you! Posted Yesterday
Jo B — thank u Rod Posted Yesterday
Scotty B — FSLR seems to have filled a gap from $49.70 Also looks like sellers loosing steam. Do you agree? Disclosure: picked some up at $49.40 Posted 2 hours ago
Rod-David — FSLR — Filling the gap back to 49.75 from, February might produce an “obligatory” temporary bounce. But nothing about price action suggests the drop is losing steam that might allow a bottom and a recovery to form… Note how there has been no break in the series of lower lows and lower highs. This is trending, and it remains very much intact. Posted an hour ago — “Edited”
Scotty B — Great, thanks, This is why I still subscribe. Second set of eyes. will watch L2 for a reversal. Posted an hour ago
McCall — anyone looking at CUBA ticker? Posted 15 minutes ago
McCall — they seem that they are at a point of break out… Posted 15 minutes ago
Rod David — CUBA — All of this year”s rally is trending back up to December”s spike peak around 15. Its reaction down ended at 8, and the uptrend has been underway since then. Closing above 11.85 on expanding volume would be the next constructive behavior. Regardless, a reaction down has room to 9.95 without reversing the trend back down.
fennecby — good morning all.
so is this market NEVER going to correct meaningfully?
and as NEVER is not a ticker symbol, I”d appreciate a look at SPCB, Posted 15 minutes ago —
Rod-David — SPCB — A correction from last year”s highs may have ended at January”s low. Basing that began there launched a rally leg that has itself corrected. And now it”s trying to resolve up with today”s surge. A pullback to 11.80 tomorrow could still resolve up. But closing back under 10.90 would signal that the recovery from January”s low had failed, and a new downleg was underway.

Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||

May 30 2015 LONDON (AP) — Paul McCartney says he has given up marijuana after many years of indulgence and now prefers wine or “a nice margarita.”

Dare we equate this weekend”s quote above, with the eight-year old quote below?

Nov 5 2007 BRAZIL (DailyMail) — Supermodel Gisele Bundchen has proved she”s got a head for figures – the financial kind. The Brazilian beauty has insisted that she is paid in Euros rather than US dollars.”

At the time, the US Dollar was trading for the lowest conversion rate ever to the Euro since its 1999 launch. We can”t fault Gisele for having had enough of it.

Oh, the Dollar bottomed right after that, too.

The wider that a theme is disseminated, the more market participants have acted on it already. To be sure, Sir Paul isn”t speaking about the Cannabis stock sector. But he is expressing a sentiment that has contributed to the sector”s contraction. When non-expert pop culture icons start making decisions on it, often the theme has been fully discounted.

We can”t assume that Tess McGill was on the other side of Gisele”s trade, any more than we would expect Yoko to start publicly endorsing pot. But the more comfortable that more people feel in taking one side of an argument, the more potential for at least a correction.