Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still testing the 1.3320 last relative low overnight left little time to delay rallying back up through the 1.1370 buy signal and renew the rally. Its probe through the morning ended the day at 1.1370, still needing to extend higher.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat-to-lower ranging overnight was recovered intraday, but not reversed, as the pattern continues to hover at its highs without gaining any new traction.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s gap up above all prior highs at 14.75 had been retraced intraday to fill the gap back down to Monday’s 14.60 close. Neutralizing its attraction below allowed Wednesday’s open to retest Tuesday’s opening gap, and then trend up intraday. I’m treating this as a breakout, needing a second consecutive higher close to confirm.

30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Momentum remained pointed higher by default, so the overnight retest of the 142-30 pullback limit was likelier to hold than to break lower. It was probed to its room for noise, and can’t tolerate any delay to resuming its rally. Almost any immediate weakness Thursday would be likely to trend down.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s reaction to the EIA report was another dip, which further undermines the basing pattern that may yet resolve up, but seems to need fresh buyers from a temporary fresh low to sponsor the recovery.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday’s reaction down from 4.63 resistance became a test of 4.31 support overnight, which didn’t hold. Thursday’s EIA report is being greeted from a position of weakness.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Initially rallying overnight from Monday’s 1.1360 pullback only gapped up Tuesday before reversing down to fresh lows at 1.1310. This tests the current uptrend’s last relative low at 1.1315, and now allows a recovery above 1.1405 to signal the rally resuming.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Retesting 1255.00 resistance before Tuesday’s open was already being rejected at the open, which failed a recovery attempt before reacting down under 1246.00 .

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Tuesday to test 14.82 represents a breakout above the 14.65 buy signal, except that the balance of the morning reversed down and filled the gap back down to Monday’s 14.60 close. The 14.75 gap up is above prior highs and may attract price back up to retest if its rejection doesn’t extend down through Wednesday’s open.

30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An overnight dip held the 142-30 pullback limit to open Tuesday unchanged and then to firm back up toward Monday’s 144-00 highs. The uptrend remains intact, even if only by default.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up and firming slightly Tuesday wasn’t yet sufficient to resolve the ongoing basing, while the growing delay is making at least a blip-down to fresh lows. So, post-close API and Wednesday’s EIA reports are being greeted from a position of strength that may at most enable the recovery from fresh lows, but could still maintain the recovery of an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Still challenged at 4.63 resistance overnight, Tuesday morning dipped back down to test 4.44, which must hold Wednesday, too, to greet Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Thursday’s confirmed breakout had extended to only slightly higher fresh highs Sunday night at 1.1450. But Monday’s reversal dipped back down to the 1.1370 buy signal. Immediate strength Tuesday would be credible for resuming the rally at an accelerated pace to compensate for the detour.

Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Friday’s fresh high close wasn’t confirmed by a second consecutive higher close on Monday, which instead fluctuated narrowly in negative territory. The “ineffectual pessimism” would still be credible for extending higher, but much less so if Tuesday morning had not already resolved up.

Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Still testing the 14.65 buy signal Monday requires that Tuesday extend higher with no further delay to avoid at least a deeper pullback, if not also reversing the trend back down.

30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s payrolls report was greeted from a position of strength, despite Thursday’s fresh high close having fulfilled the confirmed breakout’s minimum objective. Friday’s initial dip was recovered into positive territory, and extended Monday to probe Thursday’s high by nearly a quarter-point attacking 144-00. The rally’s momentum remains intact so long as pullbacks now hold 143-30 as support.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
The bottoming pattern had tried again to prematurely resolve by gapping up Friday. Monday’s opening dip corrected the excessive optimism, while also testing the 52.15 buy signal whose recovery through the close maintains the bottoming pattern. The pattern’s timing won’t tolerate much further delay in launching a rally.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday’s recovery back above 4.44 extended Monday to test 4.63, which would confirm the consolidation had resolved to launch a new rally leg targeting above 5.00.