Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Dec 11, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s PPI is both high-profile and reliable for influencing price action. But there is no post-open report to duplicate the pre-open report’s reaction.
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
6:00 AM ET
*PPI-FD
8:30 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
3-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Saturday Review’s recording (for 12/8/18) …Will next week live in infamy, too?
How does Monday’s gap up and Wednesday’s exacerbation catalyst still offer a chance of retracing last week’s drop before a bigger downleg develops? What does a bigger downleg look like, both in characteristic and degree? Which path is likelier, and what price action will be our clue?
These and other questions are answered, along with a bigger picture review of the market’s pattern, in this week’s Saturday Review. Also worth noting is the inclusion of several tenets underlying the philosophy of my analytical methodology.
Afterward, we held an impromptu introduction to the new Market Timing Knowledge Base, and specifically reviewed using inflection points for informing entry and exit decisions. Its recording is here.
The following stock requests were reviewed in this order:
ADBE, COST, JPM, WDC, GE, CAT
transcript
—————– (12/08/2018 09:31) —————–
Rod David: -=–=-
jp: gm
Rod David: Welcome to Saturday Review. Please post questions and comments as they occur to you.
David B: Good Morning
—————– (12/08/2018 09:51) —————–
ljr iPad: approx when does positive seasonality come in to play for dec?
—————– (12/08/2018 09:56) —————–
David B: What closing number for 2 consecutive sessions would tell us a bullish trend change?
—————– (12/08/2018 10:06) —————–
Mark G: likely Mon morning alternatives?
—————– (12/08/2018 10:11) —————–
ljr iPad: stocks: ADBE, COST, earnings after close thurs. thx
—————– (12/08/2018 10:17) —————–
ljr iPad: can u record that?
David B: JPM,WDC
—————– (12/08/2018 10:24) —————–
ljr iPad: thx
—————– (12/08/2018 10:25) —————–
David B: GE,CAT
—————– (12/08/2018 10:35) —————–
Mark G: thx much
David B: Thanks
Saturday Review Link
Be sure to join us by 9:30am ET for this weekend’s Saturday Review. After discussing the bigger picture and gaming out strategies for playing next week’s likelier opening setups, we’ll do instant analysis of any stock charts that you request… See you there!
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Still fluctuating narrowly around 1.1.400 into the weekend has avoided confirming the buy signal triggered above 1.1370, but maintains potential to rally out of the weekend.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh highs above 1253.00 could be launching a new rally leg, albeit less aggressively than would be optimal, and needing a second consecutive higher close to confirm.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Bouncing out of the 12.45 test Friday retested the 12.65 buy signal up to prior highs, still needing at least one more higher close to confirm the signal, while still remaining vulnerable to resuming the decline.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Already having fulfilled its minimum objective of a third higher close on Thursday, Friday’s payrolls was greeted from a position of strength. Which didn’t prevent reacting down or require a recovery, but may have limited the reaction down and still ensures a recovery.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still forming a bottom, Thursday’s fresh low was absorbed but Friday’s gap up was again premature and excessive optimism to launch a reliable rally leg.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Testing the 4.31 pullback limit overnight was recovered intraday back above 4.44 to attack 4.63 whose recovery would confirm the next rally leg underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Dec 10, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Monday’s Jobs Openings report tends to influence price action all the more when the prior Friday’s Employment Situation report was a surprise, and especially if JOLTS contradicts it. Similarly, any knee-jerk reaction upon reinforcing Friday’s report would likely reverse.
*JOLTS
10:00 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
TD Ameritrade IMX
12:30 PM ET