Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Dec 7, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Friday’s Employment Situation report is often the session’s only high-profile and reliably influential item. But not this month, with at least one of the post-open items typically inhibiting or triggering a reaction.
*Employment Situation
8:30 AM ET
*Consumer Sentiment
10:00 AM ET
Wholesale Trade
10:00 AM ET
*Lael Brainard Speaks
12:15 PM ET
Baker-Hughes Rig Count
1:00 PM ET
Consumer Credit
3:00 PM ET
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Thu Dec 6, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Wednesday’s day of mourning has doubled-up its reports onto Thursday’s calendar. The day is very busy, with multiple simultaneous pre-open and post-open reports, which can make otherwise lower-profile items more influential than otherwise. But ADP is Thursday’s only reliably influential report, delayed from Wednesday, and also very relevant to fine-tuning our expectations for Friday’s reaction to its Employment Situation report.
Challenger Job-Cut Report
7:30 AM ET
*ADP Employment Report
8:15 AM ET
International Trade
8:30 AM ET
Jobless Claims
8:30 AM ET
Productivity and Costs
8:30 AM ET
PMI Services Index
9:45 AM ET
Factory Orders
10:00 AM ET
ISM Non-Mfg Index
10:00 AM ET
Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET
EIA Petroleum Status Report
11:00 AM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
12:15 PM ET
Treasury STRIPS
3:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Remaining under pressure through Wenesdayh’s break, Thursday’s open popped-up above the 1.1370 buy signal to test 1.1400 resistance up to the week’s 1.1415 highs.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Probing Tuesday’s 1247.00 high Thursday up to 1250.00 wasn’t maintained, so the rally’s extension has yet to be confirmed and remains vulnerable to reversing down.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday’s failure to probe the 14.65 buy signal and instead dip to 14.45 support, doesn’t invalidate the opportunity to trigger the buy signal, but does start a time limit into the weekend.
30-year Treasury Jan Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The confirmed breakout requiring an eventual third higher close was on its way to being fulfilled Thursday. Holding pullbacks to 142-22 keeps alive the attraction to 144-04, whose recover would reinforce the rally’s momentum. Friday’s payrolls report is being greeted from a position of strength.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Holding 52.15 as support Monday through Wednesday helps to continue forming a bottom, but it doesn’t prevent a dip like Thursday’s under 51.00. But this should now be enough backing-and-filling for the pattern to justify an optimistic launch of a rally leg.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
The struggle to recover the 4.44 buy signal and its 4.63 confirmation has become an attempt to hold the 3.32 pullback limit.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Wed Dec 5, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: The national day of mourning for the late President George H.W Bush has affected Wednesday’s econ calendar. Price action was trading in anticipation of previously scheduled items — Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, Beige Book greeting an open session, etc. — so we should assume there will be some added degree of volatility. The unusual trading halt for futures has an impact, too (I believe the 9:30 close is correct, and will update if I learn otherwise).
MBA Mortgage Applications
7:00 AM ET
ES Futures Halt
9:30 AM ET
Beige Book
2:00 PM ET
ES Futures Re-open
6:00 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Having held its 1.1330 pullback limit Friday, closing back above 1.1370 would signal a new upleg underway. It was probed overnight up to 1.1380 but still being tested through the afternoon.
Gold Feb Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s rally gapped up Monday to ~1235.00 prior highs and added $5-6 intraday. A second consecutive higher close Tuesday would overcome the bearish distributive pattern that had been forming but never was confirmed.
Silver Mar Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Monday’s gap up above last week’s ~14.45 highs probed another dime higher intraday to fill a 2-week old gap. The gap held, but closing higher Tuesday would undermine the bearish bigger picture.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping down Sunday night to 140-06 was recovered through Monday morning to fresh highs at 141-06. The previous range does qualify as multi-session. So, closing higher Tuesday would confirm a breakout underway.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
It’s premature for gapping up to launch a durable rally, but Monday’s gap up is in-line with the pattern. The gap should be filled, and preferably not minimally, before a new upleg would be credible.
Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down Monday below the 4.44 buy signal filled a gap back down to 4.33, which held, but must still recover 4.44 to reinstate the rally.