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Bigger Picture – Page 511 – If, Then… Market Timing

Bigger Picture

Several updates from this morning”s

Several updates from this morning”s price action:

ATTBF — Retesting .135 support after a shallower bounce than the previous reaction up, which is forming a descending triangle. “Third time”s no so charming.” Closing above .175 would still save the pattern from another downleg.

FITX — Having formed a narrow channel, the lower end is being tested while volume begins expanding. There is potential for a new downleg to fresh lows under .01.

ERBB — The triple bottom”s last bounce has now been retraced as deeply as possible to .0125 without yet signaling a break lower underway.

GWPH — Volume expanding into this morning”s fresh low attacking 66. Bouncing to close back above 72.10 would suggest that a pullback had ended. The downleg that was triggered under 79.55 otherwise remains intact.

INSY — Volume consistently firming as price creeps back up to 42 resistance, where inflecting through it sharply on expanding volume would launch the next upleg.

Crude Oil is bouncing from last night”s $2+ drop, but being +$1 has retraced to break-even. That could begin forming a bottom, but a durable rally is unlikely this soon. Meanwhile, Energy sector issues are firming…

Livestock 12/15/2014

Monday morning”s Livestock reviewed in detail the January Effect candidates. There”s not a lot to expect from stocks when the broader market”s leadership is rolling over to join the laggards that are our candidates. Upside is all the more difficult when that roll over is so substantial and steep.

Add to that the ongoing Crude Oil slide that has dragged down the Energy sector. Calling into question dividends and operational break-evens can”t help but attract more tax loss selling pressures.

I also reviewed several Marijuana sector stocks that were behaving in noteworthy ways. And then I reviewed the stocks that were requested by subscribers.

Enjoy!

This morning”s Livestock starts at

This morning”s Livestock starts at 10:45am ET, and ends at 11:30. We”ll review the January Effect candidates in-depth. A couple of Marijuana sector stocks have relevant price action to discuss, too. And I want to be sure we have plenty of time to handle every subscriber”s instant analysis chart requests.

Login info: (using iPad or Tablet? Tell me in the Activity Feed comments and I”ll post audio information.)
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm

Update 12/15: January Effect Candidates 2014/2015

AERO, ARNA, ATTBF, BTU, CALL, CARA CBIS, CDE, CLF, GBLX, GSK, NCT, OCN, PBR, RIG, SODA, WLT

Dec 8 January Effect update linked here.
Dec 1 January Effect update linked here.
Nov 17 January Effect candidates introduction linked here.
Oct 9 January Effect webinar linked here.

Join me in Monday morning”s Livestock to review each of the following issues in detail.

The premise with Energy sector stocks is that they had fully reflected their underlying commodity”s weakness — and then the underlying commodity accelerated its decline, taking the sector along for the ride. The extra drop isn”t so much unpredictable, as it is vulnerable, so long as resistance isn”t recovered. And resistance was never recovered.

Now the sector”s components have in most cases trended down to fresh lows. The underlying Crude Oil commodity has reached levels once again vulnerable to at least a steep corrective bounce, the first reversal from a new low cannot also be a durable recovery. If playing a bounce in the Energy sector, keep in mind that the first upleg will likely be retraced substantially.

Meanwhile, the more broadly-held issues became vulnerable to last week”s broader market weakness. If valid, strengthening among lower-profile candidates, and relative strength among others, should become more pronounced this week.

. support resistance stop target
AERO Aerogrow International Inc. 3.43 4.60 3.27 7.40
12/15: Narrow ranging repeated the prior week”s lack of action, which to some degree may be an underlying strength that is ignoring broader market and sector difficulties. Parameters unchanged.
ARNA Arena Pharaceuticals Inc. 3.80 4.55 3.70 6.00
12/15: Dipping into the week”s end might have been influenced by broader market weakness, but the volume pattern doesn”t suggest any new sponsorship motivating the dip. Parameters unchanged.
ATTBF Abattis Bioceuticals Corp. 0.155 0.202 0.145 0.335
12/15: Support has been thoroughly tested, if not too much so, but volume has only improved into bounces which suggests that any fresh relative high will find little resistance above. Parameters unchanged.
BTU Peabody Energy Corp. 9.45 8.35 16.25
12/15: Ongoing weakness in the energy sector has fueled a vicious cycle of justifying further tax loss selling. The new downleg is testing its maximum calculable support at 7.40, becoming vulnerable to at least a steep corrective bounce to resistance. Lowered parameters.
CALL magicJack VocalTec Ltd. 8.45 7.50 12.25
12/15: Volume isn”t expanding into fresh lows, but RSIs are diverging positively while 7.65 support is being tested. Lowered parameters.
CARA Cara Therapeutics Inc. 9.55 10.20 9.35 15.75
12/15: Narrow sideways ranging at recent highs is persisting for a second week, and should start breaking higher soon to avoid at least a corrective dip. Parameters unchanged.
CBIS Cannabis Science, Inc. 0.077 0.055 0.125
12/15: Still testing and holding .057 support, but a Descending Triangle pattern has meanwhile formed, which increases the risk to a deeper near-term dip regardless of the eventual resolution. Support removed.
CDE Coeur Mining, Inc. 3.65 5.05 3.00 7.85
12/15: Flat-to-higher ranging among Precious Metals has kept Miners elevated. Parameters unchanged.
CLF Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. 5.85 8.80 8.00 16.20
12/15: Further weakness throughout the week along with the underlying commodity is probing under prior lows. A corrective bounce is becoming likely, but an extended recovery would depend upon the character of that bounce. Parameters lowered.
GBLX Growblox Sciences, Inc. 0.49 0.42 1.43
12/15: Despite having avoided a fresh low for the week, a support parameter cannot yet be reinstated. But volume patterns do suggest that almost any high-volume uptick would attract wider sponsorship to extend higher intraday. Lowered parameters.
GSK GlaxoSmithKline plc 44.00 42.60 50.60
12/15: October”s recovery above $44 established a bottom, but its recovery has been retraced to attack the lows while volume expands sharply amid broader market weakness. A higher-volume recovery back above $44 may be the only way to prevent extending the trend down. Parameters lowered.
NCT Newcastle Investment Corp. 4.55 5.05 4.80 6.20
12/15: Volume expanded only modestly, if at all, into last week”s surge to fresh highs testing resistance. The recovery cannot tolerate much delay to exploiting the breakout and extending higher. Stop raised.
OCN Ocwen Financial Corp. 20.75 24.50 18.90 27.50
12/15: The ongoing range has narrowed, with volume trying to expand, but no new signal or pattern has formed. Parameters unchanged.
PBR Petrobras
12/15: Having extended the declne to new lows for a third consecutive week, any uptick in Crude Oil should easily trigger a 20-30% surge in the stock, but that will need to develop before assessing whether a durable low has formed. Parameters suspended.
RIG Transocean Ltd.
12/15: Still trending down to new lows, and still substantially underperforming an already week sector, making parameters doubtful to be reinstated.
SODA SodaStream International Ltd. 19.50 22.45 19.20 28.05
12/15: Starting the week with a low and its retest while RSIs diverged positively also kept up volume”s pace. Price firmed into week”s end while the broader market weakened. The relative outperformance should become more obvious by midweek if it is relevant. Parameters unchanged.
WLT Walter Energy, Inc. 2.16 1.65 3.75
12/15: Volume expanded sharply into firming prices before the week”s last session, which weakened on contracting volume. A fresh high above resistance would be credible for extending sharply higher near-term. Parameters lowered.

The Universe, week of December 15 2014

Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]

Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||

Tax loss selling is taking its toll. At least, lets hope that”s what continues to motivate wave after wave of selling as the year comes to a close. “LXRP” is the only recently accumulative chart in the sector. Not that others don”t seem to have bottomed already, but nothing else attracted interest last week.

Marijuana Stock Technical Trader”s Universe for December 15, 2014
Reference this table during stock reactions
4-week # up: 11 11.46%
trends* # flat: 27 28.13%
# down: 58 60.42%
*The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks.
symbol support resistance 4-week trend
ACAN n/a n/a down
ACGX 0.000 0.003 down
AERO 3.500 4.700 flat
AGTK 0.005 0.127 down
AMMJ 0.500 1.070 down
ARNA 3.750 4.610 flat
ATTBF 0.135 0.202 flat
AVTC 1.350 1.800 flat
BLOZF 0.074 0.154 flat
BLPG 0.120 0.370 down
BNRDF 0.605 0.795 up
BRDT 0.094 0.165 down
CALB n/a n/a flat
CANL 0.620 1.095 down
CANN 0.348 2.080 down
CANV 2.400 5.550 flat
CARA 7.810 10.840 up
CBDS 5.420 8.630 down
CBGI 0.002 0.015 down
CBIS 0.055 0.082 flat
CGRW (bzcn) n/a n/a up
CHUM n/a n/a down
CNAB 0.465 0.987 down
CTCO 0.125 0.600 down
CYBK 0.005 0.015 down
DEWM 0.003 0.007 up
DIGP 0.025 0.100 down
DSCR 0.001 0.025 down
EAPH 0.011 0.020 flat
EDXC 0.031 0.077 up
ENDO 0.014 0.031 flat
ENRT 0.048 0.100 down
ERBB 0.011 0.017 flat
EXMT 0.000 0.004 flat
FITX 0.007 0.023 down
FRTD n/a 0.008 flat
FSPM 0.090 0.450 down
FULL 4.380 2.380 down
GBLX 0.381 0.806 down
GRCU 0.003 0.008 down
GRNH 0.090 0.150 flat
GWPH 65.650 76.900 down
HEMP 0.032 0.048 down
ICBU 0.013 0.024 flat
IGRW 0.002 0.006 up
IMLFF 0.095 0.140 down
INSY 37.000 44.500 up
ITNS 0.003 0.007 down
LATF 0.001 0.003 down
LXRP 0.084 0.129 flat
MCIG 0.135 0.220 down
MDBX 3.720 7.320 down
MDCN 0.000 0.168 down
MDRM 0.024 0.060 down
MINE 0.003 0.005 down
MJMD 0.011 0.082 down
MJMJ 0.020 0.499 down
MJNA 0.132 0.217 up
MJNE n/a n/a down
MNTR 0.660 1.767 flat
MYEC 0.022 0.040 flat
MYHI 0.000 0.380 down
NRTI 0.001 0.048 down
NTRR 0.050 0.220 flat
NVLX 0.155 0.215 flat
OGRMF 0.593 1.040 down
OSLH 0.025 0.052 up
PAUFF n/a n/a down
PHOT 0.019 0.065 flat
PLPL 0.263 0.426 flat
PZOO 0.002 0.050 flat
QEDN 0.001 0.007 down
REDG 0.001 0.003 up
RFMK 0.000 0.002 flat
RSSFF 0.069 0.266 down
SING 0.002 0.009 down
SKTO 0.000 0.004 down
SPRWF 0.300 0.402 flat
SRNA 0.029 0.099 down
STEV 0.063 0.089 flat
TAUG 0.012 0.020 down
TRTC 0.280 0.380 down
TURV 0.410 0.775 down
TWMJF 1.490 2.040 down
UPOT 0.340 0.900 flat
USEI 0.000 0.003 down
UTRM 0.000 0.000 down
VAPE 0.690 1.015 down
VAPR 0.050 0.120 up
VGPR 0.000 0.002 down
VPCO 1.110 2.330 down
VPOR 0.000 0.009 down
VRCI 0.000 0.009 down
WDHR (anyi) 0.000 3.000 down
XTRM 0.000 0.006 down
XXII 1.410 2.010 down
ZDPY n/a n/a n/a