Bigger Picture
Several updates from this morning”s
Several updates from this morning”s price action:
ATTBF — Retesting .135 support after a shallower bounce than the previous reaction up, which is forming a descending triangle. “Third time”s no so charming.” Closing above .175 would still save the pattern from another downleg.
FITX — Having formed a narrow channel, the lower end is being tested while volume begins expanding. There is potential for a new downleg to fresh lows under .01.
ERBB — The triple bottom”s last bounce has now been retraced as deeply as possible to .0125 without yet signaling a break lower underway.
GWPH — Volume expanding into this morning”s fresh low attacking 66. Bouncing to close back above 72.10 would suggest that a pullback had ended. The downleg that was triggered under 79.55 otherwise remains intact.
INSY — Volume consistently firming as price creeps back up to 42 resistance, where inflecting through it sharply on expanding volume would launch the next upleg.
Crude Oil is bouncing from last night”s $2+ drop, but being +$1 has retraced to break-even. That could begin forming a bottom, but a durable rally is unlikely this soon. Meanwhile, Energy sector issues are firming…
Livestock 12/15/2014
Monday morning”s Livestock reviewed in detail the January Effect candidates. There”s not a lot to expect from stocks when the broader market”s leadership is rolling over to join the laggards that are our candidates. Upside is all the more difficult when that roll over is so substantial and steep.
Add to that the ongoing Crude Oil slide that has dragged down the Energy sector. Calling into question dividends and operational break-evens can”t help but attract more tax loss selling pressures.
I also reviewed several Marijuana sector stocks that were behaving in noteworthy ways. And then I reviewed the stocks that were requested by subscribers.
Enjoy!
This morning”s Livestock starts at
This morning”s Livestock starts at 10:45am ET, and ends at 11:30. We”ll review the January Effect candidates in-depth. A couple of Marijuana sector stocks have relevant price action to discuss, too. And I want to be sure we have plenty of time to handle every subscriber”s instant analysis chart requests.
Login info: (using iPad or Tablet? Tell me in the Activity Feed comments and I”ll post audio information.)
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/pcxsrhm
Update 12/15: January Effect Candidates 2014/2015
AERO, ARNA, ATTBF, BTU, CALL, CARA CBIS, CDE, CLF, GBLX, GSK, NCT, OCN, PBR, RIG, SODA, WLT
Dec 8 January Effect update linked here.
Dec 1 January Effect update linked here.
Nov 17 January Effect candidates introduction linked here.
Oct 9 January Effect webinar linked here.
Join me in Monday morning”s Livestock to review each of the following issues in detail.
The premise with Energy sector stocks is that they had fully reflected their underlying commodity”s weakness — and then the underlying commodity accelerated its decline, taking the sector along for the ride. The extra drop isn”t so much unpredictable, as it is vulnerable, so long as resistance isn”t recovered. And resistance was never recovered.
Now the sector”s components have in most cases trended down to fresh lows. The underlying Crude Oil commodity has reached levels once again vulnerable to at least a steep corrective bounce, the first reversal from a new low cannot also be a durable recovery. If playing a bounce in the Energy sector, keep in mind that the first upleg will likely be retraced substantially.
Meanwhile, the more broadly-held issues became vulnerable to last week”s broader market weakness. If valid, strengthening among lower-profile candidates, and relative strength among others, should become more pronounced this week.
| . | support | resistance | stop | target | |
| AERO | Aerogrow International Inc. | 3.43 | 4.60 | 3.27 | 7.40 |
| 12/15: Narrow ranging repeated the prior week”s lack of action, which to some degree may be an underlying strength that is ignoring broader market and sector difficulties. Parameters unchanged. | |||||
| ARNA | Arena Pharaceuticals Inc. | 3.80 | 4.55 | 3.70 | 6.00 |
| 12/15: Dipping into the week”s end might have been influenced by broader market weakness, but the volume pattern doesn”t suggest any new sponsorship motivating the dip. Parameters unchanged. | |||||
| ATTBF | Abattis Bioceuticals Corp. | 0.155 | 0.202 | 0.145 | 0.335 |
| 12/15: Support has been thoroughly tested, if not too much so, but volume has only improved into bounces which suggests that any fresh relative high will find little resistance above. Parameters unchanged. | |||||
| BTU | Peabody Energy Corp. | — | 9.45 | 8.35 | 16.25 |
| 12/15: Ongoing weakness in the energy sector has fueled a vicious cycle of justifying further tax loss selling. The new downleg is testing its maximum calculable support at 7.40, becoming vulnerable to at least a steep corrective bounce to resistance. Lowered parameters. | |||||
| CALL | magicJack VocalTec Ltd. | — | 8.45 | 7.50 | 12.25 |
| 12/15: Volume isn”t expanding into fresh lows, but RSIs are diverging positively while 7.65 support is being tested. Lowered parameters. | |||||
| CARA | Cara Therapeutics Inc. | 9.55 | 10.20 | 9.35 | 15.75 |
| 12/15: Narrow sideways ranging at recent highs is persisting for a second week, and should start breaking higher soon to avoid at least a corrective dip. Parameters unchanged. | |||||
| CBIS | Cannabis Science, Inc. | — | 0.077 | 0.055 | 0.125 |
| 12/15: Still testing and holding .057 support, but a Descending Triangle pattern has meanwhile formed, which increases the risk to a deeper near-term dip regardless of the eventual resolution. Support removed. | |||||
| CDE | Coeur Mining, Inc. | 3.65 | 5.05 | 3.00 | 7.85 |
| 12/15: Flat-to-higher ranging among Precious Metals has kept Miners elevated. Parameters unchanged. | |||||
| CLF | Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. | 5.85 | 8.80 | 8.00 | 16.20 |
| 12/15: Further weakness throughout the week along with the underlying commodity is probing under prior lows. A corrective bounce is becoming likely, but an extended recovery would depend upon the character of that bounce. Parameters lowered. | |||||
| GBLX | Growblox Sciences, Inc. | — | 0.49 | 0.42 | 1.43 |
| 12/15: Despite having avoided a fresh low for the week, a support parameter cannot yet be reinstated. But volume patterns do suggest that almost any high-volume uptick would attract wider sponsorship to extend higher intraday. Lowered parameters. | |||||
| GSK | GlaxoSmithKline plc | — | 44.00 | 42.60 | 50.60 |
| 12/15: October”s recovery above $44 established a bottom, but its recovery has been retraced to attack the lows while volume expands sharply amid broader market weakness. A higher-volume recovery back above $44 may be the only way to prevent extending the trend down. Parameters lowered. | |||||
| NCT | Newcastle Investment Corp. | 4.55 | 5.05 | 4.80 | 6.20 |
| 12/15: Volume expanded only modestly, if at all, into last week”s surge to fresh highs testing resistance. The recovery cannot tolerate much delay to exploiting the breakout and extending higher. Stop raised. | |||||
| OCN | Ocwen Financial Corp. | 20.75 | 24.50 | 18.90 | 27.50 |
| 12/15: The ongoing range has narrowed, with volume trying to expand, but no new signal or pattern has formed. Parameters unchanged. | |||||
| PBR | Petrobras | — | — | — | — |
| 12/15: Having extended the declne to new lows for a third consecutive week, any uptick in Crude Oil should easily trigger a 20-30% surge in the stock, but that will need to develop before assessing whether a durable low has formed. Parameters suspended. | |||||
| RIG | Transocean Ltd. | — | — | — | — |
| 12/15: Still trending down to new lows, and still substantially underperforming an already week sector, making parameters doubtful to be reinstated. | |||||
| SODA | SodaStream International Ltd. | 19.50 | 22.45 | 19.20 | 28.05 |
| 12/15: Starting the week with a low and its retest while RSIs diverged positively also kept up volume”s pace. Price firmed into week”s end while the broader market weakened. The relative outperformance should become more obvious by midweek if it is relevant. Parameters unchanged. | |||||
| WLT | Walter Energy, Inc. | — | 2.16 | 1.65 | 3.75 |
| 12/15: Volume expanded sharply into firming prices before the week”s last session, which weakened on contracting volume. A fresh high above resistance would be credible for extending sharply higher near-term. Parameters lowered. | |||||
The Universe, week of December 15 2014
Note: I publish “The Universe” every weekend, updating my support and resistance calculations for Marijuana sector stocks. It is not a projection, but a handy reference… Non-Marijuana stocks are covered elsewhere during the week.]
Links to || Last week”s Universe || Prior week”s Universe || Previous week”s Universe ||
Tax loss selling is taking its toll. At least, lets hope that”s what continues to motivate wave after wave of selling as the year comes to a close. “LXRP” is the only recently accumulative chart in the sector. Not that others don”t seem to have bottomed already, but nothing else attracted interest last week.
| Marijuana Stock Technical Trader”s Universe for December 15, 2014 | |||
| Reference this table during stock reactions | |||
| 4-week | # up: | 11 | 11.46% |
| trends* | # flat: | 27 | 28.13% |
| # down: | 58 | 60.42% | |
| *The percentages of stocks rising or falling over 4 weeks. | |||
| symbol | support | resistance | 4-week trend |
| ACAN | n/a | n/a | down |
| ACGX | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| AERO | 3.500 | 4.700 | flat |
| AGTK | 0.005 | 0.127 | down |
| AMMJ | 0.500 | 1.070 | down |
| ARNA | 3.750 | 4.610 | flat |
| ATTBF | 0.135 | 0.202 | flat |
| AVTC | 1.350 | 1.800 | flat |
| BLOZF | 0.074 | 0.154 | flat |
| BLPG | 0.120 | 0.370 | down |
| BNRDF | 0.605 | 0.795 | up |
| BRDT | 0.094 | 0.165 | down |
| CALB | n/a | n/a | flat |
| CANL | 0.620 | 1.095 | down |
| CANN | 0.348 | 2.080 | down |
| CANV | 2.400 | 5.550 | flat |
| CARA | 7.810 | 10.840 | up |
| CBDS | 5.420 | 8.630 | down |
| CBGI | 0.002 | 0.015 | down |
| CBIS | 0.055 | 0.082 | flat |
| CGRW (bzcn) | n/a | n/a | up |
| CHUM | n/a | n/a | down |
| CNAB | 0.465 | 0.987 | down |
| CTCO | 0.125 | 0.600 | down |
| CYBK | 0.005 | 0.015 | down |
| DEWM | 0.003 | 0.007 | up |
| DIGP | 0.025 | 0.100 | down |
| DSCR | 0.001 | 0.025 | down |
| EAPH | 0.011 | 0.020 | flat |
| EDXC | 0.031 | 0.077 | up |
| ENDO | 0.014 | 0.031 | flat |
| ENRT | 0.048 | 0.100 | down |
| ERBB | 0.011 | 0.017 | flat |
| EXMT | 0.000 | 0.004 | flat |
| FITX | 0.007 | 0.023 | down |
| FRTD | n/a | 0.008 | flat |
| FSPM | 0.090 | 0.450 | down |
| FULL | 4.380 | 2.380 | down |
| GBLX | 0.381 | 0.806 | down |
| GRCU | 0.003 | 0.008 | down |
| GRNH | 0.090 | 0.150 | flat |
| GWPH | 65.650 | 76.900 | down |
| HEMP | 0.032 | 0.048 | down |
| ICBU | 0.013 | 0.024 | flat |
| IGRW | 0.002 | 0.006 | up |
| IMLFF | 0.095 | 0.140 | down |
| INSY | 37.000 | 44.500 | up |
| ITNS | 0.003 | 0.007 | down |
| LATF | 0.001 | 0.003 | down |
| LXRP | 0.084 | 0.129 | flat |
| MCIG | 0.135 | 0.220 | down |
| MDBX | 3.720 | 7.320 | down |
| MDCN | 0.000 | 0.168 | down |
| MDRM | 0.024 | 0.060 | down |
| MINE | 0.003 | 0.005 | down |
| MJMD | 0.011 | 0.082 | down |
| MJMJ | 0.020 | 0.499 | down |
| MJNA | 0.132 | 0.217 | up |
| MJNE | n/a | n/a | down |
| MNTR | 0.660 | 1.767 | flat |
| MYEC | 0.022 | 0.040 | flat |
| MYHI | 0.000 | 0.380 | down |
| NRTI | 0.001 | 0.048 | down |
| NTRR | 0.050 | 0.220 | flat |
| NVLX | 0.155 | 0.215 | flat |
| OGRMF | 0.593 | 1.040 | down |
| OSLH | 0.025 | 0.052 | up |
| PAUFF | n/a | n/a | down |
| PHOT | 0.019 | 0.065 | flat |
| PLPL | 0.263 | 0.426 | flat |
| PZOO | 0.002 | 0.050 | flat |
| QEDN | 0.001 | 0.007 | down |
| REDG | 0.001 | 0.003 | up |
| RFMK | 0.000 | 0.002 | flat |
| RSSFF | 0.069 | 0.266 | down |
| SING | 0.002 | 0.009 | down |
| SKTO | 0.000 | 0.004 | down |
| SPRWF | 0.300 | 0.402 | flat |
| SRNA | 0.029 | 0.099 | down |
| STEV | 0.063 | 0.089 | flat |
| TAUG | 0.012 | 0.020 | down |
| TRTC | 0.280 | 0.380 | down |
| TURV | 0.410 | 0.775 | down |
| TWMJF | 1.490 | 2.040 | down |
| UPOT | 0.340 | 0.900 | flat |
| USEI | 0.000 | 0.003 | down |
| UTRM | 0.000 | 0.000 | down |
| VAPE | 0.690 | 1.015 | down |
| VAPR | 0.050 | 0.120 | up |
| VGPR | 0.000 | 0.002 | down |
| VPCO | 1.110 | 2.330 | down |
| VPOR | 0.000 | 0.009 | down |
| VRCI | 0.000 | 0.009 | down |
| WDHR (anyi) | 0.000 | 3.000 | down |
| XTRM | 0.000 | 0.006 | down |
| XXII | 1.410 | 2.010 | down |
| ZDPY | n/a | n/a | n/a |
