Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Dipping just a little bit deeper Wednesday under Tuesday’s 1.1295 low down to 1.1283 wasn’t necessary to allow a credible recovery to begin. But it coincided with lifting the embargo on the Fed Chair’s noon prepared remarks, triggering a surge to 1.1400. RSIs had diverged positively at the low, so the burden of proof is now on sellers.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still needing a second consecutive lower close to confirm, Wednesday morning’s flat ranging spiked up through 1215.00 to attack 1228.00 when the embargo was lifted on the Fed Chair’s noon prepared remarks. Closing back under the 1220.50 sell signal keeps alive the potential for retracing the rest of the spike and resuming the decline.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Wednesday to 14.15 reacted eventually by spiking up to 14.35 as the embargo was lifted on the Fed Chair’s noon prepared remarks. Closing under 14.32 keeps alive the downside momentum, so that any initial weakness Thursday would be likely to extend down.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
A muted reaction to lifting the embargo on the Fed Chair’s noon prepared remarks Wednesday continued hovering at or above the 139-22 sell signal that has held as support since first being tested Monday morning, becoming less likely to break lower.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Wednesday’s inside day doesn’t undermine the potential for Tuesday’s gap fill of Friday’s low close to begin forming a durable bottom. The restrained optimism helps from a contrarian perspective to give any fresh low a benefit of the doubt for recovering to continue forming a bottom.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Firming Wednesday after Tuesday had failed to confirm Monday’s break was recovered through the 4.44 buy signal AND its 4.63 confirmation. The pullback is resolving up and targeting fresh highs above 5.00. This does qualify as greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of strength.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The confirmed breakout under 1.1425 extended down Tuesday to overlap the 2-week old low session down to 1.1295, which reacted back up above the low session’s high. Extending the decline any further can’t afford to hesitate, or else a durable bottom will begin forming.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Already piercing the 1220.50 sell signal overnight for the first time in a week of only touching it, Tuesday’s open slid sharply to fill a gap outstanding from 1215.00, probing it down to 1211.50. A second consecutive lower close on Wednesday would confirm the trend has reversed down.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday’s fresh lows down to 14.05 help to confirm the ongoing break under the 14.32 sell signal, and the downside momentum does keep alive the reversal.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Firming overnight from Monday’s dip to the 139-22 sell signal did not resume the rally. But neither did it confirm Monday’s dip, making fresh highs likely.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Still firming overnight and Tuesday morning attacked 52.40 before reversing to fill the gap back down to Friday’s 50.40 close. This can qualify as neutralizing the required retest of Friday’s plunge low before a credible bottom can form. Price has already reacted back up to Friday’s 51.50 highs.

Natural Gas Jan Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage forward to Jan which trades at a 3-cent premium to Dec]… Tuesday’s inside day doesn’t confirm Monday’s break under the 4.44 sell signal. Back above 4.62 would target new highs above 5.00.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Rallying overnight and gapping up to test 1.1400 was reversed down through the morning to test negative territory, potentially to produce a second consecutive lower close that confirms the sell signal which began breaking last Tuesday.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night’s bounce held 1228.50 to reverse back down Monday morning. But the 1220.50 sell signal continued to hold, as it had during the two prior sessions.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Rallying Sunday night above the 14.32 sell signal was erased by Monday’s open, and its reversal extended into negative territory through the morning.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday’s failed probe above Tuesday’s prior highs continued reversing down Sunday night, testing the 139-22 sell signal near Monday’s open. Holding its support maintains the rally’s potential to extend.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping up and firming Monday morning was shallower than the two prior plunges’ immediate reactions, suggesting that pessimism may be reaching levels capable of forming a bottom. Regardless, no recovery would be credible for completing a bottom without first probing under Friday’s 50.15 lows intraday.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thanksgiving lows didn’t qualify for triggering the 4.38 sell signal. But their reaction up stopped short of triggering the 4.59 buy signal before gapping down Sunday night to probe fresh lows at 3.99. A second consecutive lower close Tuesday would confirm.