Bigger Picture
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Tue Nov 27, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Tuesday’s calendar is busy with Fed speakers, from one pre-open to three as the afternoon bias environment begins lapsing. The pre-open econ reports aren’t reliably influential to price action, but any reaction would likely be duplicated by the post-open report.
Richard Clarida Speaks
7:45 AM ET
Redbook
8:55 AM ET
S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller HPI
9:00 AM ET
FHFA House Price Index
9:00 AM ET
*Consumer Confidence
10:00 AM ET
4-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
8-Week Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
5-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
*Raphael Bostic Speaks
2:30 PM ET
*Esther George Speaks
2:30 PM ET
*Charles Evans Speaks
2:30 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Wednesday’s retest of the 1.1425 sell signal as resistance was repeated Thursday, before resolving down aggressively overnight. Gapping down Friday under Tuesday’s 1.1380 low extended down only slightly intraday, but into the afternoon anyway, which often ensure at least probing a fresh low on Monday morning.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Hovering just under Wednesday’s surge finally broke lower ahead of Friday’s open, which extended back down to the 1220.50 sell signal. Its test is holding, so far, but its break at any time would be credible for extending down.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s bounce never extended higher but delayed its reaction down until Thursday night, then compensated by plunging through its 14.32 sell signal. Friday’s open attacked 14.15 momentarily, reacting up to only attack the sell signal as resistance.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday’s reaction down from Tuesday’s fresh highs had left no “unfinished business” above, but also didn’t reverse momentum down. Probing fresh highs Friday retraced back into Tuesday’s range, still neither creating nor leaving unfinished business above, but also not reversing momentum down.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday’s plunge required a retest to fresh lows under 53.05, just as did the prior Tuesday’s plunge, regardless of the interim bounce’s degree and duration. The wait was less, but still substantial as an interim bounce up to 55.85 plunged Thursday night to 50.55. An Island reversal would form from gapping up, but the trend otherwise remains down.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Probing under the 4.38 sell signal was isolated between Wednesday’s close and Friday’s open, so closing above 4.59 would signal a probe of fresh highs above 4.90 underway.
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Mon Nov 26, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Neither of Monday’s two Fed surveys has a track record for influencing price action. But any reaction to the pre-open report should be duplicated in reaction to the post-open report.
Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET
Dallas Fed Mfg Survey
10:30 AM ET
3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
6-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET
2-Yr Note Auction
1:00 PM ET
Look ahead: Economic Calendar – for Fri Nov 23, 2018
A midday look ahead in preparation for economic reports and events scheduled for the next trading day.
Highlights: Black Friday usually applies only to retail sales. And retail sales usually siphon volatility from the market. But low participation only inhibits the market from trending — it doesn’t prevent it, and it makes trending more difficult to stop if started. Meanwhile, only one econ report is scheduled before the early close. It’s post-open, and reliably influential to price action.
*PMI Composite FLASH
9:45 AM ET
Early Close
1:15 PM ET
Fed Balance Sheet
4:30 PM ET
Money Supply
4:30 PM ET
Daily Spot…
A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.
Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday’s 1.1425 sell signal was retested as resistance overnight and into Wednesday’s open, and still being tested through the session by an inside day which neither confirms nor invalidates the signal.
Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Overnight firming extended to fresh recovery highs Wednesday morning attacking 1231.00, but essentially hovering under Monday’s 1228.00 high. The 1220.50 sell signal remains active.
Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight firming extended to fresh recovery highs Wednesday morning at 14.55 to test another “higher prior low” and gap. A break back under 14.32 is now needed to reverse the trend back down.
30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Tuesday’s fresh highs reacted down Wednesday morning to hover just under Monday’s 139-24 prior highs, without reversing momentum down or invalidating the upside momentum.
Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
It’s still too soon for any credible bottoming to develop when Tuesday’s plunge requires at least being probed to fresh lows. That didn’t prevent gapping up to retrace Tuesday’s late downleg from 54.30, back into Tuesday’s mid-day range, and then extending higher to test 55.85. But the inside day does not reverse momentum up.
Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Extending Tuesday’s recovery overnight tested the gap back to last Wednesday’s 4.83 close, but had backed off already pre-open to avoid filling the gap intraday. An intraday gap fill remains likely, especially so long as 4.38 holds as support through the close.