Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Filling the gap back to the 2-week old high session’s close Monday resolved down overnight and gapped down Tuesday, back under Monday’s range, and through the 1.1425 sell signal. Closing lower Wednesday would confirm the trend is reversed down again.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Still barely ranging flat-to-higher overnight finally tried breaking higher Tuesday morning to 1229.50. Its reaction down fell back to the 1220.50 sell signal, whose break would likely trend down to fresh lows.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging overnight surged into Tuesday’s open to test 14.45 before plunging through the morning to 14.20. All of which suggests the corrective bounce limit has held its test, and a second lower close Wednesday would likely trend down ahead of the weekend.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Fresh recovery highs overnight gapped up Tuesday to 140-04, then fluctuated flat-to-lower, filling the gap back down to Monday’s 139-24 close without reversing momentum down.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Monday’s long-awaited retest of last Tuesday’s record intraday plunge was itself shallow and brief. Its optimism was bearish from a contrarian perspective, and proved out Tuesday by plunging again through 55.70 to fresh lows testing 52.75. Being another plunge, similar to last week’s, no recovery attempt will be credible without first retesting the plunge’s low.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Monday’s rally had stopped short of filling the gap back up to last Wednesday’s 4.83 close. Tuesday’s reaction down held a test of the 4.38 sell signal, keeping alive the higher attraction, but also making any subsequent dip highly likely to extend down sharply.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The 10-day old gap back to the high’s session’s 1.1490 close was filled at Monday’s highs after gapping up and trending higher intraday. There is no bearish reason to extend any higher, so reversing back under 1.1425 would signal a new downleg underway.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Flat ranging overnight never resolved in either direction Monday, which also means the bounce limit’s test wasn’t rejected back under its 1220.50 sell signal.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat ranging overnight firmed slightly intraday Monday, still vulnerable to resolving down and erasing last week’s rally.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Dipping overnight to test recent sessions’ 139-08 “lower prior highs” held its test through Monday’s open and returned up to Friday’s highs at 139-30, capable of extending the rally.

Crude Oil Jan Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Friday’s rejection of its opening gap extended down Sunday night and Monday morning to retest last Tuesday’s plunge low as the pattern required. But only a retest of its 55.75 intraday low, and not of its 54.90 overnight low. The afternoon’s bounce up to 56.95 can get a benefit of the doubt for extending higher if confirmed Tuesday by a second consecutive higher close.

Natural Gas Dec Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Already rallying Sunday night has truncated a healthier pullback, making a gap-fill back up to Wednesday’s 4.82 close likelier to hold and complete a top. Monday’s gap up extended to attack the gap to within a nickel.