Bigger Picture

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Not yet resolving down by Friday’s open kept the door open to extending the corrective bounce for a test of the original 1.1400 sell signal, which was probed intraday up to 1.1445. Closing above 1.1480 would suggest a bigger bounce underway, but otherwise closing back under 1.1400 would once again target recent lows.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Extending the bounce into Friday fulfilled its 1222.00 corrective bounce target and tested “higher prior lows” while also filling a gap up to 1226.00. Closing back under 1220.50 would start to signal the bounce was failing, and targeting a retest of 1201.50.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Already extending higher overnight was able to test its 14.36 corrective bounce target Friday morning, up to 14.40 in the afternoon, also testing “higher prior lows” and filling a gap. Closing back under 14.25 would signal a retest of recent lows and lower underway.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday’s reaction down had not broken under any relevant support, keeping alive upside momentum that enabled retesting Thursday’s high on Friday morning. The rally resumed up to 139-20, now needing a second consecutive higher close to confirm a more durable rally is underway.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Greeting Thursday’s EIA report from a position of weakness had only prevented a favorable knee-jerk reaction from extending, but didn’t prevent extending higher anyway overnight into Friday morning up to 57.95. Regardless, Tuesday’s plunge all but requires a retest or probe of its 54.75-55.55 lows before any durable bottom could form, which became much more obvious as the morning’s gap up was reversed by $2 to probe negative territory down to 56.90.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Only a slightly lower low overnight down to 3.90 preceded Friday’s flat-to-higher ranging, which retraced 61.8% of Thursday’s post-open range up to 4.35. Extending the pullback from Wednesday’s high would next target 3.80.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes… View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today’s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Dec Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping down Thursday bounced before even touching Wednesday’s low, essentially forming an inside day. A fresh high would still contend with 1.1400 resistance, but retesting the 1.1245-1.1275 lows first could form a durable bottom.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Wednesday’s close was testing 1210.00 on its way up to 1217.00, which was retested overnight but not exceeded Thursday as price hovered just below it Resistance at 1219.00-1222.00 must hold to maintain this is only a temporary corrective bounce.

Silver Dec Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Wednesday’s bounce extended overnight up to the 14.25 resistance of Friday’s gap down and previous “higher prior lows.” It was all retraced into the open, and then recovered intraday to probe another nickel higher. Resistance at 14.35 is likely to be tested, and likely to launch the next downleg if tested.

30-year Treasury Dec Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rising stocks didn’t need the destination of a flight-to-quality, so probing higher Thursday up to 139-14 was retraced into negative territory. The trend didn’t reverse down, but the opportunity to confirm Wednesday’s rally had failed.

Crude Oil Dec Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday’s close didn’t maintain a shallow but favorable knee-jerk reaction to the one-day delayed EIA report, essentially ending the day at its 56.50 open and still being likely to probe under Monday’s 54.75-55.55 lows.

Natural Gas Nov Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A probe above Wednesday’s 4.93 spike high was avoided before reversing down sharply to 3.93 Thursday. Which still confirms the exhaustive nature of the rally, but held above the 4.03 “lower prior high” to avoid reversing the trend down.